Happy New Year! Last day to Vote!

(DXD) 2x inverse of the DOW has tracked lower for the last week as the markets have calmed. Volume is ebbing and we could another correction depending on how much the sub-prime deal will finish out. Has the market gotten all the blood it needs? Enjoy the rest the holiday week as markets will shut up one last day this Thursday…

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Safe and Happy New Year

Leave Comments and don’t forget to vote in the prediction poll 2009!

Alternative Energy in the New Year

It is projected, and stated by the man himself, one of top priorities of the new Obama administration will be the broad based implementation of new alternative energy solutions. Being far too early to tell which corporate leaders will rise from this occasion an increasing number of products are available to help with discovering early profits in this arena. The following is only a few of the ETFs and Ns encountered in recent months, also the advent and growing popularity of carbon trading is really putting a token in the hands of commodity traders as the latest product to hit the pits.

(ASO)

Air Shares EU Carbon Allowances gives investors and speculators the chance to earn off of the fast growing carbon market. So fast in fact the 9 months in the us the market expanded 87% and is projected to reach 100billion in short order. This fund is a commodity fund levered with futures contracts in carbon priced in euros.

(GRN)

is an iPath Global Carbon ETN highly correlated with the USO. Although light in volume, it may provide a great way to profit in the future advance of the carbon commodity as well.

(PBW)

This ETF fund is based off the WilderHill Clean Energy Index which is derived off companies that focus on greener and renewable sources of energy and technologies facilitating cleaner energy.

(PZD)

The fund this time tracks the Cleantech Index. The Index is a modified equally weighted index consisting of stocks of publicly traded cleantech companies and American depository receipts [ADRs] based on such stocks. Cleantech Indices LLC (the Index Provider) considers a company to be a cleantech company if it derives at least 50% of its revenues or operating profits from cleantech businesses. Cleantech businesses are defined as those that provide knowledge-based products (or services) that add economic value by reducing cost and raising productivity and/or product performance. The Index will include the securities of approximately 75 companies with a market capitalization range of between $200 million and $100 billion.

(PUW)

The PowerShares WilderHill Progressive Energy Portfolio (Fund) is based on the WilderHill Progressive Energy Index. The Index is comprised U.S.-listed companies that are significantly involved in transitional energy bridge technologies, with an emphasis on improving the use of fossil fuels. The modified equal-weighted portfolio is rebalanced and reconstituted quarterly.

(QCLN)

First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge U.S. Liquid Series Index Fund (the Fund) is an exchange-traded index fund. The objective of the Fund is to seek investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield of an equity index called the NASDAQ Clean Edge U.S. Liquid Series Index (the Index). The Index is a modified market capitalization-weighted index designed to track the performance of clean energy companies that are publicly traded in the United States, and that are primarily manufacturers, developers, distributors and/or installers of clean energy technologies, as defined by Clean Edge, Inc. Clean energy companies include companies engaged in the manufacturing, development, distribution and installation of clean energy technologies, including, but not limited to, solar photovoltaics, bio-fuels and advanced batteries. The Index is reconstituted twice a year in March and September, and rebalanced quarterly. The Fund’s investment advisor is First Trust Advisors L.P.

(GEX)

Market Vectors-Global Alternative Energy ETF (the Fund) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the performance of the Ardour Global Index (Extra Liquid) (AGIXL) by investing in common shares of large-, mid- and small-cap companies reflected in the Index. AGIXL, calculated by Dow Jones Indexes on behalf of Ardour Global Indexes LLC, is a modified capitalization-weighted, float adjusted index comprised of publicly traded companies engaged in the production of alternative fuels and/or technologies related to the production of alternative energy power. As of December 31, 2007, AGIXL represented 30 publicly traded companies from around the world.

I encourage you leave your opinions about the future of this industry and any other names recently encountered that may provide and entry to the field of Alt energy.

Many more ETFs and Notes can be found at these sites:

http://www.xsharesadvisors.com

http://www.invescopowershares.com/

http://www.ftportfolios.com/

http://www.vaneck.com/

(XLF) Accelerating to the upside

A very hectic year of finance comes to close as many of the beaten down securities are starting a mini-trend to the upside. Although the markets still have all the potential to swing down in the beginning of the new year, this ETF is starting to show the bottoming signs we want to see on the technical side.

(XLF) is the financial sector ETF which has continued to fall along with many great financial names. Today in the market we saw bad news and a strong showing in both financial and retail companies. Inflation still a concern doesn’t seen to faze these sectors.

With (XLF) holding above $11 the next big upswing could prove to be profitable in the most beaten down industry of this economy. A good risk reward ratio may proof whether the economy is ready to recover or if we are ready for another leg down.

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Happy New Year!!!

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Pfizer to the upside

This year has been a drag on these drug companies. Did the demand all of the sudden evaporate along with most of of the baby boomers retirement? Did these aging beauties figure a way to rejuvenate without the use of modern medicine? I reckon not a chance. This sector is full of prominent companies that pay a solid dividend.

After watching the DOW do a little bounce today I noticed we had this little nipper tucked into the green like a kid ready for bed. (PFE) paying a $0.32 quarterly dividend is right on its way up for a run. A slow build on a position could bring this common into spring with a run up of 25% – 30%.

The chart attached shows how the acceleration bands have indicated a past par, and the percent R 30 indicator has held in red for one correction since last week.

To argue against this long trade I would say the general market is setting up a triangle and could break down again takign everything with it. My analyst thinks we will retest a 6700 price point on the DOW — Be careful.

To argue for the trade (PFE) is a prominent well balanced company with a knowable market. Their dividend will be paid and the market could break to the upside just as easy in the coming weeks. My analyst thought we see $1500 gold by Christmas.

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Leave comments!

Happy trading

Salesforce.com (CRM)

That guy on TV (you know that guy) was all over this thing calling long when it dropped earlier in fall from a credulous high of 75 then to 50 and now into the light 30s. I had this sucker in a paper trade and made a killing on it (too bad for me). The P/E ratio is still rocking over 100 and why this thing still holds is beyond me. I found out about the company’s situation doing a P/E search for companies with ratios over 200 in mid August.

Three arguments against a short trade are: 1) the value in the growth potential of this company when the market settles, and 2) this could be a cup with a handle pattern aiming for a big jump up. 3) Many people know the P/E is high.

My six arguments for a short trade are 1) I think we have a slowing trend to the upside on this bounce and there is a ton of potential to give it a short as a speculation. 2) On a light trade 0.5% or less of portfolio risk this trade could be a 5 to 1 risk to reward falling from $32 down to a range near $15. 3) By looking at the volume indicators the justification comes with a few big sell-offs which perpetuated the decline. If we turn as a market in the coming weeks this will be one of those companies to continue its slide. 4) If we don’t continue to rollover then (CRM) will probably run up, yet a new up trend will be obvious in the buying and will give an opportunity to cover quickly. 5) The P/E ratio is still over one hundred and that is just crazy. There is still crap for this market to flush before we start up again I believe. 6) I have no margin of safety to be long in this stock. If this company were to go under, which it could, there is no viable analysis saying I would even get a penny on the dollar.

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Stay hedged, stay happy : )

Please comment!

Fallen (HERO)

(HERO) a shallow water drilling company took a hard dive after the drop in oil this summer. Well below its 200 day moving average I suggest a mellow hurricane season will put profits back the bank of these drillers. A P/E ratio of under five and a ton of inventory. This is in my watchlist but I am not about to go long just yet. No dividend and highly speculative.

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Two Different Principles

The book Security Analysis By Graham and Dodd states two principles by which think about investing in chapter two.

1. Principle for the untrained security buyer: Do not put money into a low-grade enterprise on any terms.

2. Principle for the securities analysis: Nearly every issue might conceivably be cheap in one price and dear in another.

(XLF) Slow climb to higher ground.

The last few weeks has held a fare share of bad news, yet the DOW Theory analysis has led to a slow climb for the (XLF). Two more legs up through January may lead to a great buying opportunity for the next few years. The elimination of the final toxic mortgage backed securities in February will be one of the deciding factors to start the next bull run.

One lower high since mid-November

One lower high since mid-November

“Living Revocable Trust”

Suze Orman is one of the great mainstream educators in finance. One of her topics she describes on a regular basis is the “Living Revocable Trust.”

If your parents are of the dogma that a Will and power of attorney is all they need to leave you with their assets, as their children, they need to know about what probate court will do to their estate.

The deed of your parents property will not transfer to you under state law (may be an exception in your area) until a judge evaluates and decides you are the rightful owner of that deed. This can take six months to two years in a court setting depending, and the cost (once again this will depend on your area) can be tens of thousands of dollars.

Suze has always proposed the “Living Revocable Trust” to solve this dilemma. If your parents are still alive they should set up a “Living Revocable Trust” and transfer their assets including; house deeds, stock portfolios, or any other asset they may have acquired into that trust. Suze suggests they are are to use an attorney who only deals in trusts (not a real estate attorney trying to do a favor). She also suggests the attorney charge not on an hourly basis but on a per asset basis. Each asset transfer into the trust will take time and that is how the attorney’s fees should be based.

Three things to include in the trust:

  • Transfer of all legal assets
  • Back-up Will
  • Durable power of attorney granted to the children

Taking this step is a huge money and time saver after your parents or loved ones pass. Death is not an option and your money/debt hangs around much longer than you.

Good luck convincing your parents!

Monday, Monday

Here is a link on the for an article on seekign alpha regarding 2x inverse ETF funds.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/40372-ultrashort-proshares-etfs-24-ways-to-benefit-from-going-short

The January effect could very well be starting today, yet many people have lost capital and may not need the capital gains write-off.

(DUG) Good for a hedge in the oil and gas, and a good day today for the ETF.  Still trending down in todays trade of the day.

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Term: Stock Certificate

A stock certificate (also known as certificate of stock or share certificate) is a legal document that certifies ownership of a specific number of stock shares (or fractions thereof) in a corpration.

Typically the certificate transaction takes place electronicly and few see the actual certificate in modern times.

Click to see larger image.

Click to see larger image.