I’m headed to Denmark soon. The country often features in “happiest place on earth” books and Americans sometimes get interested in what this country, whose population is about the same as the greater Boston area, can teach us (see this April 20, 2013 nytimes article for example and this posting be Senator Bernie Sanders). One thing that might be hard to apply is that people are simply happier in smaller countries, an argument made in A Pattern Language where, a maximum country population of 10 million is suggested (otherwise the leaders become too remote from the people and it is impossible for an average citizen to have any influence on the government; consider the situation of someone in Hawaii or California who wants to talk to the bureaucrats in charge, a 6- or 11-hour airline journey away). In theory we could try to capture some of the Danish magic by turning federal power over to the 50 states, but in practice the federal government has been taking programs and power away from the states for 100+ years.
Another challenge is income. The Danes measure out as having a more enjoyable lifestyle but that lifestyle produces only $ 37,700 in GDP per capita (CIA Factbook). Running U.S. local, state, and federal government costs about $ 21,000 per year per American (CIA Factbook GDP times 42 percent). So if we had a Danish level of economic productivity and our American system of government spending on health care, military, nation-building, etc. the required tax rates would be about 58% (i.e., workers would be permitted to choose how to spend 42% of their earnings).
Senator Sanders implies that it would be easy to import ideas from Denmark. If we make health care universal and free our spending will suddenly drop from 18 percent of GDP to 11 percent. But what if our spending is high because Americans are not competent at delivering health care? If we organize 75 of Americans into trade unions, everyone will make more money implies Sanders. But he doesn’t address the fact that American managers are historically too oriented toward the short term and/or too foolish not to bankrupt unionized companies with pension commitments (see this posting about General Motors). Maybe unions result in sustainable business in Denmark because Danish managers are smarter than American managers and/or because a Danish manager cannot make $ 100 million/year on the basis of some short-term results.
With a realistic view towards our own limitations and what we have managed to accomplish as a country thus far, what ideas for political and social organization could we import from Denmark?
[Update: coincidentally, yesterday’s New York Times carries an article on the subject of whether the U.S. can be like the Nordic countries: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/29/why-cant-america-be-sweden/ ]
Today was not a Tuesday which always brings the probability of an actual selloff. Indeed that happened and Wednesday essentially offset Tuesday’s gains. From here on out almost every day we sell off you will see it attributed to “fears of quantitative easing tapering” which will be the headlines today. But it is nothing new. More big picture you are seeing serious selling in equities that have been used as bond equivalents as yields have been driven so low in the bond market people have moved to areas such as utilities or REITs as replacements. But since last Wednesday those areas have been hammered. We’ll focus more on the rotation that is happening below. Outside of that there was little in terms of economic news. The S&P 500 fell 0.7% and the NASDAQ 0.61%.
With the indexes the S&P 500 has now pulled back to the 20 day moving average once more – similar to where it was last Thursday and Friday. We mentioned yesterday we now have a mini range between the highs and lows of last week (excluding the spike last Wednesday) and that continued today. That range is S&P 1635 to 1675. Below the 20 day moving average – if it were to break – is the bottom end of this now half year+ trendline which has only broke once (mid April).
According to the NYSE McClellan Oscillator this is the most oversold the market has been in 2013, as we have a print below -60. Can it get worse? It always can (see the readings last November) but the lower this goes the more likely a snap back rally.
Here are the charts of the sector ETFs for utilities and REITs – you can see tremendous volume spikes as institutional money is rotating away from these groups. Ironically after the bell Warren Buffet announced the purchase of NV Energy (NVE) – so it is likely this group will catch a bid tomorrow. But we can now call these broken charts – remember these were leaders earlier in the year as the defensive/yield trade was all the rage.
Now that we have had a week worth of selling we can see where the relative strength is – today it was apparent in both the energy and financial sectors. Note despite the S&P 500 falling back to where it was last Thursday/Friday these two ETFs closed higher today than those two days last week.
One area in a bit of a purgatory area on its chart are the homebuilders. They had a rough day today as it was reported mortgage rates hit their highest levels in a year. In the big picture rates are still near rock bottom relative to where they have been the past 10 years (not to mention 30) but incredibly cheap financing has helped stoke the housing market, so of course the worry is any backup in rates will cause that progress to slow. One thing to note is with this sector the technicals don’t help us as much as with other groups – they are very much a sentiment drive sector. Generally a break of the 50 day moving average is a bearish signal but that happened in both February and April and it led to furious rallies.
Original post: STTG Market Recap May 29, 2013
Written By: DragonFly Capital
There has been a lot of talk of the unwind of the yield stock. You have seen it in the sell off of the monster REITs like American Capital Agency ($ AGNC) and stocks like Verizon ($ VZ). Selling off dividend names because the Fed may stop buying bonds this year and eventually move to raise rates in 2014 by 25, 50 or 100 basis points seems insane to me. A 3% or 4% 10 year bond yield or 50bp on a money market account is not going to be enough to make up for the yields on high quality stocks at 4 or 5% and REITs closer to 10%. But hey what do I know?
One thing I do know is that the price action in these names, is showing signs that there are some traders that are thinking like I am. So lets take a look and maybe we can all be wrong together. Starting with American Capital Agency, the move off of the high less than a month ago has reached 25%. Today it printed a Hollow Red Hammer candle with a very long lower shadow. This is at the previous bottom from November. It is very extended below the Simple Moving Averages (SMA) and and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed under 20. These are conditions for a reversal. Look for a close back over Wednesday’s high to confirm it. For you fundamental people, it is also now trading at a 9% discount to the book value. The
move lower has raised the dividend yield back to 18%. If you think that is not sustainable then what is? Half of that? Even at a quarter it would yield 4.5%. You can’t shake a stick at that! Verizon is of a different variety. But the technicals also point to a possible reversal soon. Having completed an extreme Crab pattern, it is nearing a 38.2% retracement of the move higher. It may continue lower but this is the first price objective out of the Crab and the next is at 45.24, the 61.8% retracement. What suggests it is time to watch now is that the RSI is moving near the technically oversold level and there has been some historic importance at the 38.2% level from late March into April. Definitely wait for the bounce but it has already raised the dividend yield up over 4% and it would reach 4.5% at the 61.8% retracement.
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Which stocks are the most over-extended and under-extended from their 200 day Simple Moving Average and what trading opportunities do these stocks offer?
Let’s update the scan and take a look at some of the opportunities that make this scan useful.
First, here are the top five SP500 Stocks most Over-extended from their rising 200d SMA:
The chart above – taken from FinViz.com – shows the percentage difference between the current price and the 200 day SMA.
For example, the most overextended stock First Solar (FSLR) is almost 77% above its rising 200 day SMA.
This stock is a good method for finding stocks in persistent uptrends, meaning we can use these as buy candidates via retracements or breakouts to trade with the prevailing trend.
Aggressive or “reversal-style” traders can use this list instead to find quick opportunities to play “fades” or even trend reversal trades when trade opportunities signal a possible reversal is developing (such as the break under a key support level).
Netflix is such a stock that showed persistence of uptrend, as it appeared as the #1 most over-extended stock from our February update.
Let’s take a look at popular stock Netflix (NFLX) to see how this may be applied:
Although Netflix (NFLX) has been in a persistent uptrend since reversing from the mid-2012 lows, it faces a critical price inflection point into the confluence of the prior swing low, 50 day EMA, and lower daily Bollinger Band all converging at the $ 205 price level.
Pro-trend retracement traders can do additional analysis to determine a long/buy trading opportunity depending if they want to buy into support (with a tighter stop) or wait for a bit of chart-evidence of a likely upward swing which could come in the form of a break above a daily reversal candle or falling trendline (via bull flag logic).
The prior pro-trend retracement opportunity like this developed on the touch of the rising 20 EMA into this level in April.
Reversal traders may want to play an early entry into a possible trend reversal on a clean breakdown and close under the $ 200 round number area. Note the divergence into the recent $ 250 high which adds a touch of bearishness to the strong uptrend.
Another example of a persistent uptrend with cautious divergences is Best Buy (BBY):
Best Buy (BBY) previously appeared on another one of these updates of stocks most under-extended from their 200d SMA (April 2012) as the #3 most unde-rextended stock at the time.
From there, though the downtrend did continue until late 2012, two breakout/reversal signals developed in early 2013 that preceded the recent strong uptrend; Best Buy now appears as the #4 most over-extended stock.
Like Netflix, Best Buy traded in a strong uptrend yet is showing signs of caution through volume and momentum divergences from April to today.
Reversal-style traders will want to see a clean breakdown under $ 26 and preferably $ 24 to play a larger reversal opportunity; bullish traders instead want to see the stock break above $ 27 for a potential breakout and pro-trend continuation opportunity.
The same type of logic holds for the Top 5 Stocks Most Under-extended from their falling 200d SMA:
To continue the discussion, Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) and Apple (AAPL) appeared as the #1 and #4 most under-extended stocks from the February 2013 scan.
The persistence of the downtrend continued in these stocks where they interestingly appear in the same location on the under-extended list as they did three months ago.
Apple is facing another key challenge of “possible reversal” vs. downtrend continuation, giving bulls and bears potential opportunities depending on how price behaves at the current inflection point.
Reversal buyers/bulls may jump into the stock quickly on a breakthrough above the $ 460 level, generating a clean potential reversal signal with an upside target at least to $ 520.
Pro-trend continuation bears/sellers are looking for a breakdown under $ 440 to trigger a short-term bear flag and open the next downside (pro-trend) target back to $ 420 then $ 400 and under $ 380.
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) developed initial signs of reversal, yet a bull trap triggered the current sell-swing and continuation of the downtrend in motion:
While there are many examples of the concept, CLF reminds us that fighting a trend in motion can be frustrating, even with valid reversal signals.
A lengthy positive divergence developed through the early part of 2013 which culminated in a breakout – a reversal trigger – above the prior high and falling 50d EMA at the $ 22 per share level… only to see a bull trap take price back under the $ 22 breakout level and now under the rising trendline to trigger a pro-trend retracement opportunity here which targets the prior low from April as a minimum target.
You can apply your analysis to the remaining candidates that appeared on the 200d SMA scan results.
Study the prior updates for additional insights and lessons how to generate trading opportunities depending on your preferred style of trading (pro-trend or counter-trend/reversal).
Feel free to share your thoughts or trade opportunities you’re seeing in these stocks (including links to a blog post) in the comment section.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade
Written By: DragonFly Capital
Here is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten:
Regions Financial, Ticker: $ RF
Regions Financial, $ RF, has been consolidating in a bull flag after a move higher over the 7.75 base in April. The touch at the 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) Thursday and then confirmation higher Friday signals more upside as does the bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI), but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) is rolling lower. Some divergence showing. There is no resistance higher until 9.65 back in December 2008. Support is found below at 8.93 and 8.50 followed by 8.25 and 8. The Measured Move higher out of the bull flag takes it to 10.75.
Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock on a move over 9.25 with a stop at 9.10.
Trade Idea 2: Buy the June 9 Calls (offered at 27 cents late Friday) on a move over 9.25.
Trade Idea 3: Buy the July 10 Calls now (6 cents) like 1080 others did Friday.
Trade Idea 4: Buy the August 8/10 bullish Risk Reversal (free).
If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.
After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Saturday which, heading into the shortened unofficial first week of Summer sees some nervous caution in the markets. Gold looks to consolidate with a downward bias while Crude Oil churns in the tightening range. The US Dollar Index seems ready for a pullback in the recent uptrend while US Treasuries are biased lower in their consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks strong but Emerging Markets are biased to the downside. Volatility looks to remain benign keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, despite short term pullbacks and recent new highs. Their charts show more caution with a further pullback or consolidation likely. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.
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The post Top Trade Ideas for the Week of May 28, 2013: Bonus Idea appeared first on Dragonfly Capital.
I met a young father who is just starting a job as a teacher in the Cambridge Public Schools ($ 26,337 spent per pupil back in 2009; expenses forecast to rise at 3 percent per year so the 2013 number should be $ 29,642 if the number of students remains constant (note that these numbers do not include capital spending)). The union contract says that teachers with a master’s degree would start in 2011 at $ 46,541 and, after 10 years and a few continuing education credits, be earning $ 85,048. Working hours for elementary school teachers are from 8:10 am until 2:35 pm, 183 days per year. The elementary school teacher also gets a lunch period and “no less than forty (40) continuous minutes of daily, duty free preparation time.”
“I’m very excited about this job,” said the father, who then added that he and his family were moving to Brookline, Massachusetts, across the river from Cambridge and a truly hellish commute via the MBTA (Green Line into Boston and then Red Line back out). I asked why he didn’t move to Cambridge instead, so that he would be able to walk to work. “I would never want my children to attend the Cambridge Public Schools,” he replied.
Call it a Cape Cod Red, White, & Blue Ocean Tribute to all who have served.
Enough said for now as there will be time for more words and video soon as we roll out a new trading era.
Written By: DragonFly Capital
After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. This week’s list contains the first five below to get you started early.
The post Top Trade Ideas for the Week of May 28, 2013: The Best appeared first on Dragonfly Capital.
A friend of mine owns a record company and asked for advice on a camera system to record interviews with musicians. These will be in a recording studio or an office. He wants to use an on-camera shotgun-style microphone rather than a lav mic. It seems to me that the criteria are the following:
- good performance at higher ISOs due to the low light
- availability of a fixed normal-perspective lens at a reasonable price
- ability to use an external microphone
I came up with the following recommendation:
- Nikon D5200 (Canon equivalent has inferior dynamic range and sensor score on DxOMark)
- Nikon 35mm f/1.8G lens (no Canon equivalent lens; Sigma 35/1.4 is a good lens but expensive and heavy)
- Nikon 27045 ME-1 Stereo Microphone
The microphone recommendation is the one that I am least sure about. It doesn’t seem likely to isolate the subject as well as a true shotgun mic. On the other hand, perhaps the interviewer’s questions should be audible as well even if the camera is not pointed at the interviewer.
Do readers have a better idea?
In this segment, Marc Principato, CMT reviews a short taken in the S&P500 CFD at a major market top. See how our pattern recognition and volume analysis allow our traders to hold a position longer. For more information visit: http://smbtraining.com/overview/forex-training
Marc Principato, CMT,
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Written By: DragonFly Capital
Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, running into the Memorial Day Weekend that the equity markets continued to look strong but with the potential for rotation into the small caps noted the previous week still showing. It looked for Gold ($ GLD) to continue the trend lower while Crude Oil ($ USO) was biased higher in its neutral channel. The US Dollar Index ($ UUP) was on the verge of a full blown bullish move higher while US Treasuries ($ TLT) were biased lower. The Shanghai Composite ($ SSEC) also looked to be ready to move back higher while Emerging Markets ($ EEM) were biased to the downside as they consolidated. Volatility ($ VIX) looked to remain a non factor and should be ignored until it breaks above 22 keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s $ SPY, $ IWM and $ QQQ, despite the moves to new highs. Their charts agreed although the SPY was showing the most signs of caution as the IWM and QQQ plow forward.
The week played out with Gold holding its ground while Crude Oil moved up early, only to pull back later in the week. The US Dollar consolidated higher while Treasuries did the same at their recent lows. The Shanghai Composite made a higher high before pulling back while Emerging Markets broke there consolidation lower. Volatility bounced off of the lows again but remained subdued. The Equity Index ETF’s made new all-time and closing highs on the SPY and IWM with multi-year highs on the QQQ before starting a pullback mid-week. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.
The SPY made new all-time highs Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, before pulling back to end the week less than 1% lower. The pullback nearly made it to the 20 day SMA on the daily chart, and Thursday and Friday printed Hollow Red Candles. This two days of bullish intraday action (I posted on Hollow Red Candles Thursday night). The RSI on the daily chart is pulling back and the MACD is moving lower off a new high. These all bode for more downside price action. Notice that the volume is slowing again though. Out on the weekly chart the Evening Star is a potential reversal candle if confirmed lower next week. The RSI on this timeframe remains bullish and hovering around the technically overbought level. The MACD is continuing to rise. This timeframe looks higher still. There is support lower at 163 and 159.72 followed by 157 and 153.55. Under 153.55 and this turns bearish. Resistance is found at 166.50 and 167.50 followed by 169.07. Short Term Consolidation or Pullback in the Uptrend.
Heading into the shortened unofficial first week of Summer there is some nervous caution in the markets. Gold looks to consolidate with a downward bias while Crude Oil churns in the tightening range. The US Dollar Index seems ready for a pullback in the recent uptrend while US Treasuries are biased lower in their consolidation. The Shanghai Composite looks strong but Emerging Markets are biased to the downside. Volatility looks to remain benign keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ, despite short term pullbacks and recent new highs. Their charts show more caution with a further pullback or consolidation likely. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.
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It’s helpful to study the trades of the day to learn important lessons we can apply to future sessions.
We want to know if we made any mistakes and thus need to correct them, or whether the market gave a valid trade signal yet real-time developments overruled the original trade, resulting in a loss.
Sometimes when the market ‘busts’ or invalidates a high probability set-up, particularly after a strong gap, it can have short-term forecasting insights for the remainder of the trading day.
A failed trade can provide the necessary clues to reveal a shift in the supply/demand relationship either that we missed in real-time, or else dramatically shifted during an otherwise valid trade.
Let’s take a look at such a situation from the intraday SP500 action (using the SPY ETF as a proxy yet the lesson is just as applicable to other markets and futures contracts) on May 23, 2013.
Here’s the logic behind the initial retracement trade set-up after a strong downside opening gap:
With a large downside gap, we would be looking for any signs of additional continuation for a possible Trend Day development, which would put our focus on potential retracement or intraday “flag” trades that may develop.
The chart above shows the 5-min chart (left) along with more detail on the 1-min SPY intraday chart.
The main idea of the 5-min chart is that price completed a large downside opening gap and has retraced into a dual confluence area of the falling 20 EMA along with the simple “Round Number” of $ 165 (roughly 1,650 in the SP500 index).
This alone would be a simple trade set-up via flag or retracement logic, but we also see a corresponding negative momentum divergence in the 3/10 MACD SMA momentum oscillator.
Clean retracement set-ups often develop with a market retraces to a potential resistance or inflection price while the lower timeframe chart reveals a negative divergence (be it in market internals, volume, or momentum).
An aggressive trade entry develops INTO the known resistance area (as close to $ 165 as possible) while a conservative entry requires a trigger, usually in the form of a breakdown under a rising trendline, 5-minute reversal candle low, or else the break of a horizontal support line (as is the case here into $ 164.80).
Let’s take a closer look at this set-up in terms of entry, targeting, and of course stop-loss placement:
When planning any trade (this is true for Swing Traders, not just intraday traders), it’s helpful to create a pathway for expected price movement along with an alternate pathway that you believe price should not travel (for example, above a resistance level).
The 1-min SPY chart above shows the $ 165 level and the 20 EMA (from the 5-min chart) which form the basis for the expected resistance area that price “should not cross.”
Traders in general will locate stop-losses at various prices above a known resistance level, though many will locate stops near the same level which results in a cluster or “pocket” of resting stop-loss (buy-to-cover) orders.
Thus, we have a “pocket” of stop-losses above this resistance area and an “unexpected” pathway for price to travel if instead buyers overpower sellers who expect the market to trade lower for the rest of the session (for reasons other than the charts above)
Our expected or likely pathway is highlighted in green which represents a stable, steady movement lower at least toward the session low into $ 164 (though bears/sellers may hope it trades even lower that that for additional short-selling opportunities under $ 164).
For this example, we’ll use the following parameters:
- Trade Trigger: Into $ 165 (aggressive) or under a trendline ($ 164.80)
- Stop-Loss: Placed depending on risk tolerance above $ 165 (stops will cluster above this level)
- Initial Target: A sell-off at least toward $ 164 which is a round number and the session low
The trade has a superior reward to risk relationship (greater than 3:1) and – per our assumptions at least – greater odds of trading down from resistance (with divergences) toward the low as compared with breaking immediately above the ‘cluster’ resistance at $ 165.
We’ll be on guard for any surprise price events and monitor the movement toward – or away from – our expected target.
The chart below shows two “surprise” events and the eventual outcome of the trade:
While price initially traded lower toward our simple target – moving from $ 165 to a low of $ 164.40 – two surprise bullish events occurred which “busted” or broke through the price pathway we created.
Two waves of buying pressure sent price rallying 40 cents each at 9:50 and then 10:05am CST. That wasn’t part of the plan!
Depending on how they managed the trade (closing a profitable position at the first sign of danger or else bravely holding on through surprise developments that do not trigger the established stop-loss), traders who took the same set-up experienced different outcomes.
Those who adapted to the unexpected bullish events may have exited with a small profit while those who did not interpret these signals – or else held the position either until the pre-established stop or target was hit – resulted in a stop-loss from an otherwise high probability-perceived retracement set-up.
Note the sudden upside acceleration as price entered the “Pocket” of stop-losses, which created a short-squeeze event that helped propel prices higher (as short-sellers joined with the buyers to boost prices in a quick impulse of rapid buying pressure).
This itself – the unexpected entry into a “pocket” of stop-losses above a resistance level – is an aggressive trading opportunity for those who are comfortable trading “failure outcomes” or breakout events driven by a ’squeeze.’
The main idea of this lesson is not so much in trade management tactics, but in the MESSAGE sent by a perceived high-probability or high-confluence (many indicators aligning to suggest a certain outcome) trade set-up failed.
At the core, it often reveals a “stronger than expected” shift in the supply/demand (bear/bull) relationship that either existed prior to our trade (and wasn’t visible perhaps beforehand) or else shifted dramatically DURING a trade that otherwise would have met its objective.
In simplest terms, when a high probability or high confluence intraday trade blatantly fails, it reveals that we should consider adapting to the new supply/demand environment and stop trying to trade in the original direction (in this case, to the downside).
This can prevent us from losing money on future failed trades that go against the new supply/demand balance (or price trend).
As I hinted earlier, a failed trade that results from a sudden shift or (revelation of a shift) can be a sign that the market is “tipping its hand” that the remainder of the session will likely be bullish (in this case).
While sellers had plenty of indicators in their favor, they were unable to overcome the buyers who are stepping in for many reasons other than the charts (or our perceived high-probability trade set-up).
Intraday Trend Reversals can quickly occur when short-term/intraday sellers become buyers (either buying-to-cover suddenly losing positions or flipping over to the bullish side themselves after a failed trade) and join with higher timeframe influences entering a market.
The chart below shows the Bearish Bias (red) in the morning which suddenly shifted to a Bullish (or at a minimum, Neutral) Bias BECAUSE OF the failed high-probability pro-trend (intraday) retracement set-up:
We see the entire session in hindsight but try to visualize it as it unfolded and the collective thoughts of traders as the session progressed.
The breakthrough above $ 165 – invalidating a retracment set-up and breaking known resistance (thus triggering a quick short squeeze) – immediately shifted the bias from the bearish-favored to the bullish-favored, so long as price remained above this barrier level.
It led to additional breakout and retracement trades as seen above as potential future (at least from the 10:15am CST breakout) opportunities.
At a minimum, we should be open to the message of price (the market) when it reveals an otherwise valid set-up or trade logic has officially failed.
It suggests that the supply/demand relationship (imbalance) that resulted from the failed trade may continue throughout the remainder of the session, and we thus need to adapt as additional real-time information from price develops.
Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade