Cleveland’s Best Linkfest!

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Charts/Markets/Business/Economy You Might Not See Otherwise

857554798
From Barry Ritholtz

Shale Gas Invigorating US Economy Cleveland

The world has 53.3 years of oil left USA Today

API backs legislation to boost drilling on federally controlled lands Ohio

Columbia Gas rate falls slightly for next month Toledo Blade

CEO Bonnafe tells employees BNP to be heavily sanctioned by U.S. Reuters

Bob Evans, investor at odds over board seats Dispatch

Investors Who Bought Foreclosed Homes in Bulk Look to Sell NYT

2

Cleveland Flair

The Tri- C Jazz Fest wraps up this weekend. Check out Christian McBride or Dave Holland.

The Cav’s picked Andrew Wiggins with the first pick of the draft, but before he can play Bruno Mars hits the Q on Sunday

Oh My MY, Ringo Starr is at Jacobs Pavilion Sunday with his All Starr Band

The Orchestra kicks off its Fourth of July Celebrations with a Star Spangled Salute Wednesday on Public Square and then out to Blossom for the Salute to America on both the 3rd and the 4th.

But before that Toby Keith fans can see him at Blossom on Sunday

Dragonfly Facts

A dragonfly has two large compound eyes that are made up of 30,000 ommatidia, which are like tiny, individual eyes.

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Dragonfly Capital

Netsuite Heading to the Clouds

Written By: DragonFly Capital

The tech sector and in particular the cloud space has been a rocky place to be. But one stock Netsuite, $ N, looks ready to head higher towards the clouds. Take a look.

n

The stock pulled back from a high at 120 to end February and went through a basing period from April through to now. That price action has made a bullish Cup and Handle pattern (in orange) which will trigger for a long position over the prior resistance (red line) at 87.50. This pattern targets a move higher to 103.50. But what makes it even more exciting is that if it gets to the April peak at 96.80 it will create a bigger Cup and Handle pattern with a target higher to 122. And at the March peak at 107.24 another one with a target of 143. Its kind of like that comic where there are a series of bigger fish gobbling up the smaller ones in front of them. Are you hungry?

fish

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Smartest Kids in the World: What can a parent do?

Perhaps you aren’t able to emigrate to Finland but you still want your children to get a good education. You aren’t willing to assume that a country (the U.S.) that has been running a mediocre public school system for 100 years is suddenly going to snap out of its football-induced stupor. Does Amanda Ripley’s The Smartest Kids in the World: And How They Got That Way offer any practical tips for what a conscientious parent might do? Yes.

How about joining the PTA?

PTA parents cared deeply about their children and went out of their way to participate in school functions. During the 1980s and 1990s, American parents and teachers had been bombarded by claims that children’s self-esteem needed to be protected from competition (and reality) in order for them to succeed. Despite a lack of evidence, the self-esteem movement took hold in the United States in a way that it did not in most of the world. So, it was understandable that PTA parents focused their energies on the nonacademic side of their children’s school. They dutifully sold cupcakes at the bake sales and helped coach the soccer teams. They doled out praise and trophies at a rate unmatched in other countries. They were their kids’ boosters, their number-one fans. These were the parents that Kim’s principal in Oklahoma praised as highly involved. And PTA parents certainly contributed to the school’s culture, budget, and sense of community. However, there was not much evidence that PTA parents helped their children become critical thinkers. In most of the countries where parents took the PISA survey, parents who participated in a PTA had teenagers who performed worse in reading.

By 2009, Schleicher and his colleagues had managed to convince thirteen countries and regions to include parents in the PISA. Five thousand of the students who took the PISA test brought home a special survey for their parents. The survey asked how they had raised their children and participated in their education, starting from when they were very young. Strange patterns emerged. For example, parents who volunteered in their kids’ extracurricular activities had children who performed worse in reading, on average, than parents who did not volunteer, even after controlling for other factors like socioeconomic background. Out of thirteen very different places, there were only two (Denmark and New Zealand) in which parental volunteering had any positive impact on scores at all, and it was small.

Giving your children lots of encouragement and praise?

In one Columbia University study, 85 percent of American parents surveyed said that they thought they needed to praise their children’s intelligence in order to assure them they were smart. However, the actual research on praise suggested the opposite was true. Praise that was vague, insincere, or excessive tended to discourage kids from working hard and trying new things. It had a toxic effect, the opposite of what parents intended. To work, praise had to be specific, authentic, and rare.

Knocking yourself out like Tiger Mom?

Korean parenting, by contrast, were coaches. Coach parents cared deeply about their children, too. Yet they spent less time attending school events and more time training their children at home: reading to them, quizzing them on their multiplication tables while they were cooking dinner, and pushing them to try harder. They saw education as one of their jobs. This kind of parenting was typical in much of Asia—and among Asian immigrant parents living in the United States. Contrary to the stereotype, it did not necessarily make children miserable. In fact, children raised in this way in the United States tended not only to do better in school but to actually enjoy reading and school more than their Caucasian peers enrolled in the same schools.

While American parents gave their kids placemats with numbers on them and called it a day, Asian parents taught their children to add before they could read. They did it systematically and directly, say, from six-thirty to seven each night, with a workbook—not organically, the way many American parents preferred their children to learn math. The coach parent did not necessarily have to earn a lot of money or be highly educated. Nor did a coach parent have to be Asian, needless to say. The research showed that European-American parents who acted more like coaches tended to raise smarter kids, too.

What if, due to a lifetime of living in America, you are too lazy to do that?

Parents who read to their children weekly or daily when they were young raised children who scored twenty-five points higher on PISA by the time they were fifteen years old. That was almost a full year of learning. More affluent parents were more likely to read to their children almost everywhere, but even among families within the same socioeconomic group, parents who read to their children tended to raise kids who scored fourteen points higher on PISA. By contrast, parents who regularly played with alphabet toys with their young children saw no such benefit.

And at least one high-impact form of parental involvement did not actually involve kids or schools at all: If parents simply read for pleasure at home on their own, their children were more likely to enjoy reading, too. That pattern held fast across very different countries and different levels of family income. Kids could see what parents valued, and it mattered more than what parents said.

By contrast, other parental efforts yielded big returns, the survey suggested. When children were young, parents who read to them every day or almost every day had kids who performed much better in reading, all around the world, by the time there were fifteen. It sounded like a public-service cliché: Read to your kids. Could it be that simple? Yes, it could, which was not to say that it was uninteresting. After all, what did reading to your kids mean? Done well, it meant teaching them about the world—sharing stories about faraway places, about smoking volcanoes and little boys who were sent to bed without dinner. It meant asking them questions about the book, questions that encouraged them to think for themselves. It meant sending a signal to kids about the importance of not just reading but of learning about all kinds of new things. As kids got older, the parental involvement that seemed to matter most was different but related. All over the world, parents who discussed movies, books, and current affairs with their kids had teenagers who performed better in reading. Here again, parents who engaged their kids in conversation about things larger than themselves were essentially teaching their kids to become thinking adults. Unlike volunteering in schools, those kinds of parental efforts delivered clear and convincing results, even across different countries and different income levels.

What if you’re too busy watching TV and playing Xbox to read? Can you be savvy about choosing your child’s school? Ripley has an entire appendix on the subject.

If you are trying to understand a school, you can ignore most of the information you are given. Open houses? Pretty much useless. Spending per student? Beyond a certain baseline level, money does not translate into quality in education anywhere. The smartest countries in the world spend less per pupil than the United States. Average class size? Not as important as most people think, except in the earliest years of schooling. In fact, the highest-performing countries typically have larger classes than the United States. The research shows that the quality of the teaching matters more than the size of the class. Test data? More helpful, but very hard to decipher in most places. How good is the test? How much value is the school adding beyond what kids are already learning at home? More and more U.S. school districts have this kind of information, but do not make it public. Instead, the best way to gauge the quality of a school is to spend time—even just twenty minutes—visiting classrooms while school is in session. When you get there, though, it’s important to know where to look. Parents tend to spend a lot of time staring at the bulletin boards in classrooms. Here is a better idea: Watch the students instead. Watch for signs that all the kids are paying attention, interested in what they are doing, and working hard. Don’t check for signs of order; sometimes learning happens in noisy places where the kids are working in groups without much input from the teacher. Some of the worst classrooms are quiet, tidy places that look, to adults, reassuringly calm. Remember that rigorous learning actually looks rigorous. If the kids are whizzing through a worksheet, that’s not learning. That’s filling out a form. Kids should be uncomfortable sometimes; that’s okay. They should not be frustrated or despairing; instead, they should be getting help when they need it, often from each other.

There should be a sense of urgency that you can feel.

I saw bored kids in every country. Boredom is the specter that haunts children from kindergarten to graduation on every continent. In American classrooms, I watched a girl draw a beautiful rose tattoo on her arm with a ballpoint pen; she did it slowly, meticulously, as though she were serving a life sentence.

In the best schools, though, boredom was the exception rather than the norm. You could walk into five classrooms and see just one or two students who had drifted away, mentally or physically, rather than eight or ten. That’s how you know that you are in a place of learning.

Don’t ask, “Do you like this teacher?” or “Do you like your school?”

The first thing I usually ask is straightforward: What are you doing right now? Why? You’d be amazed how many kids can answer the first question but not the second.

 

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

GDX Sector

Here’s an example of using the TEA indicator as a tool to find sectors and individual stocks in play. Tomorrow, in the Options Tribe meeting, I’ll be discussing the TEA indicator in more detail. We will look at how the indicator is built, how you can install it on your platform, and the variety of uses – from managing options strategies to finding individual sectors and stocks for long/short trends.

If you would like the indicator ahead of time, please email me anytime.

Register to attend the free Options Tribe meeting tomorrow.

 

Andrew Falde
afalde@smbcap.com

No Relevant Positions. Options Risk Disclaimer. Read more […]
SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog

Macro Month in Review/Preview June into July 2014

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Last month in this space my Monthly Macro Review/Preview had the monthly outlook heading into June suggesting that Gold and Copper would continue in their consolidations ranges with a downward bias for both. Crude Oil and Natural Gas looked to be moving in the opposite way, consolidating but both with an upward bias. The US Dollar Index showed sign of continuing lower while US Treasuries continued to look strong. The Shanghai Composite continued to look weak while the Emerging Markets and the German DAX looked strong and headed higher. Volatility looked to remain at anemic levels giving a wind to the backs of US Equity markets. The Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ continued to be biased to the upside, but the SPY looked the strongest with the IWM and QQQ needing to work through consolidation zones. How does an additional month impact the longer term picture? Let’s look at some charts.

The post Macro Month in Review/Preview June into July 2014 appeared first on Dragonfly Capital.

Dragonfly Capital

STTG Market Recap June 30, 2014

This should be a relatively quiet week despite some key economic reports set to hit as we have the 4th of July weekend approaching. Monday was volatile but not in a very wide range; the S&P 500 fell 0.04% while the NASDAQ added 0.23%. Housing had a decent day as the National Association of Realtors reported signed contracts to purchase existing homes surged 6.1 percent last month…

Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com


Stock Trading To Go

Top Trade Ideas for the Week of June 30, 2014: Bonus Idea

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Here is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten:

Biogen Idec, Ticker: $ BIIB
biib

Biogen Idec, BIIB, has built a Cup and Handle pattern and is testing the top of the pattern for a break out. A move over 322 carries a Measured Move higher to 372. The RSI is in the bullish zone and rising with a MACD that is crossing up and positive as well as the accum/dist statistic that has been rising. There is resistance higher at 331 and 347 followed by 355 and then free air higher. Support may come lower at 312 and 304 followed by 288 and 280.

Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock on a move over 322 with a stop at 310.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the July 320 Calls (offered at $ 6.40 late Friday) on the same trigger.

Trade Idea 3: Buy the July/August 325 Call Calendar ($ 6.70).

Trade Idea 4: Buy the August 325/350 Call Spread and sell the August 300 Put ($ 1.60).

Premium Content
The Best

The Rest Premium

Free Content
The Rest

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, sees Monday closing the 2nd Quarter and then we head into July with the equity market still looking strong. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue in its uptrend while Crude Oil may continue to consolidate in its uptrend. The US Dollar Index is in another short term downtrend while US Treasuries are biased higher, but may need a very short pullback first. The Shanghai Composite continues to grind sideways with Emerging Markets pulling back or consolidating in their uptrend. Volatility looks to remain minuscule keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts show that the SPY and IWM gained some strength to end the week but are still in a range while the QQQ is rising and very strong. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Get my book, Trading Options: Using Technical Analysis to Design Winning Options Trades.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through June 2014 Expiry and sign up here

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Enhancing Trader Performance: Easy Is Not Necessarily Better

*****David Blair, The Crosshairs Trader, is a blogger/trader/educator who does a wonderful job of sharing research on elite performance and how it relates to trading. Below is his latest post for the SMB trading community.***** — Editor’s Note
“My Aunt lived to be 100 smoking 2 packs of cigarettes a day since she was 18; therefore, smoking is not bad for you.”  “I have a friend who does not believe in wearing seat belts. He has been in two accidents and walked away with but a few scratches and bruises; therefore, his belief has been validated not once but twice.”  These statements sound really stupid do they not?  Read more […]
SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog

Introducing the Jellyfish Trading Network

Look for more details shortly as we establish the foundation for a small but powerful trading team focused on daily planning, mutual accountability, and encouragement.

Individuals will be hand-picked and need not be Jellies, yet must certainly understand and follow the fundamental Jellie concepts.

No fees or hidden agendas … just maximizing each other’s potential.

More to come soon …

Don Miller’s S&P Trading Tank

Top Trade Ideas for the Week of June 30, 2014: The Rest

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Here are the Rest of the Top 10:

8×8, Ticker: $ EGHT
eght

8×8, $ EGHT, pulled back from a long consolidation during May. It found a bottom in June and has now bounced and consolidating. It has a RSI at the mid line after a run higher and a MACD rising. Both support more upside. Short interest is elevated at 7%.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Ticker: $ FCX
fcx

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, $ FCX, has moved higher in 2 ‘W’s since the pullback in January. The SMA’s are rising along with the RSI and MACD. Bullish. It is currently consolidating in a bull flag.

Illinois Tool Works, Ticker: $ ITW
itw

Illinois Tool Works, $ ITW, has had a long trend higher, since April 2013. The last 4 weeks have seen consolidation under resistance, as it moves sideways. The RSI is holding the bullish range and the MACD is diverging lower.

KeyCorp, Ticker: $ KEY
key

KeyCorp, $ KEY, is back at resistance near 14.50 to 14.60 from a higher low. The SMA’s are trending higher and it has support for a break higher from the bullish RSI and a MACD that is avoiding a cross as it levels.

Northern Trust, Ticker: $ NTRS
ntrs

Northern Trust, $ NTRS, has been moving higher in a stair step fashion, and is currently consolidating the last move. The RSI is bullish and the MACD rising, both supporting more upside.

Up Next: Bonus Idea

The Best

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, sees Monday closing the 2nd Quarter and then we head into July with the equity market still looking strong. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue in its uptrend while Crude Oil may continue to consolidate in its uptrend. The US Dollar Index is in another short term downtrend while US Treasuries are biased higher, but may need a very short pullback first. The Shanghai Composite continues to grind sideways with Emerging Markets pulling back or consolidating in their uptrend. Volatility looks to remain minuscule keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts show that the SPY and IWM gained some strength to end the week but are still in a range while the QQQ is rising and very strong. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Get my book, Trading Options: Using Technical Analysis to Design Winning Options Trades.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

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Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through June 2014 Expiry and sign up here

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The Week That Was on Dragonfly Capital

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Here are the stories that you found most engaging on Dragonfly Capital this week:

Is That All She’s Got?

Focusing on the P’s and QQQ’s

The Sun is Rising – Here Goes Japan

Its in the Genes – Illumina

Goodyear Tire & Rubber – Floating Into A Trade

Get my book, Trading Options: Using Technical Analysis to Design Winning Options Trades.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________

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Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through June 2014 Expiry and sign up here

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Smartest Kids in the World: American Private School

Are you a rich American? Maybe you can buy your children a Finnish-style education by sending them to private school. Amanda Ripley explores this possibility in The Smartest Kids in the World: And How They Got That Way.

In 2011, I took a tour of a Washington, D.C., private school that was hard to get into and cost about $ 30,000 a year. Sunlight streamed through the skylights. As I walked down the hall, the sound of kids learning in different languages filtered out into the hallway. There were muffins in the principal’s office. It felt like a learning spa—a parent’s dream.

When the head of the school talked, nothing she said made sense to me. There was a lot of jargon about the curriculum and vague promises of wondrous field trips and holistic projects. All the visiting parents nodded;

Then a parent with three children at this school took us for a tour. We saw gleaming floors, bright, colorful walls, beautiful, framed art projects, and other seductive tokens. Finally, one visiting father asked a good question: “Every school has its weaknesses. What is this school’s weakness?” I lifted my head, straining to hear what our tour guide would say. “You know, I’d have to say the math program is weak.”

What did it mean if the math program was weak at a school that made small children take I.Q. tests before they were even accepted? That particular parent wrote a check each year for about $ 90,000 to this school to cover the tuition for her three children. Wouldn’t she demand decent math classes in exchange? But no one said anything.

Then the tour guide parent added one more thing: “Oh, and I wish the football program was stronger.” Suddenly, the parents perked up. “Really, what do you mean? Is there not a football team? What age does it start?”

Perhaps this explained why our most affluent kids scored eighteenth in math compared to affluent kids worldwide: Even wealthy American parents didn’t care about math as much as football.

Fortunately not every American private school has been ruined by football-crazed American parents:

At the Success Academy charter schools in New York City, students spend an hour and a half reading and discussing books each day. Then they spend another hour and a half writing. Kids start learning science every day in kindergarten. That’s what rigor looks like. In most New York City public schools, kids don’t learn science daily until middle school. That’s not all. Success Academy students also take music, art, and dance; they learn to play chess. They almost never skip recess, even in bad weather—a policy they share with Finland. They call their strategy “joyful rigor.” Does this work? All fourth graders at Success Academy schools are proficient in science, according to New York City’s test, and 95 percent perform at advanced levels. Success Academy Harlem I, where the mostly low-income students are randomly admitted by lottery, performs at the same level as gifted-and-talented schools across New York City.

At these schools, kindergarten teachers are forbidden from speaking to children in a singsong voice. It’s hard to respect children when you are talking down to them.

“It’s an insult to the scholars’ intelligence,” writes founder and CEO Eva Moskowitz and her co-author Arin Lavinia in their 2012 book, Mission Impossible. “What the teacher is saying should be so interesting that the kids are sitting on the edge of their seat, hanging on every word. It’s intellectual spark that holds and keeps their attention, not baby talk.” Parental involvement means something different at Success Academies; parents are not asked to bake cookies or sell gift wrap. Instead, they are asked to read to their kids six nights a week.

 

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

SPY Trends and Influencers June 28, 2014

Written By: DragonFly Capital

A weekly excerpt from the Macro Review analysis sent to subscribers on 10 markets and two timeframes.

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, heading into the last full week of June and kick off into Summer, that the equity markets looked strong. Elsewhere looked for Gold ($ GLD) to continue higher while Crude Oil ($ USO) joined it to the upside. The US Dollar Index ($ UUP) had a short term downward bias while US Treasuries ($ TLT) consolidated but also were biased lower. The Shanghai Composite ($ SSEC) looked like it had more consolidation in store for it while Emerging Markets ($ EEM) were biased to the upside with possible consolidation. Volatility ($ VIX) looked to remain very low keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s $ SPY, $ IWM and $ QQQ. Their charts were also biased to move higher on the longer timeframe with the shorter timeframe strongest in the IWM and with the SPY and QQQ looking like they could consolidate in the short term.

The week saw Gold flatline at 1320 while Crude Oil consolidated in a narrow range, neither with any energy. The US Dollar stayed in a narrow range as well, as it drifted lower while Treasuries started higher out of consolidation. The Shanghai Composite did continue to consolidate sideways while Emerging Markets could not move higher and also continued to consolidate. Volatility made a move higher, but only to just over 12 and held that for a nanosecond. The Equity Index ETF’s moved mainly sideways, with the SPY and IWM starting slightly lower before holding, and the QQQ the best performer drifting higher out of consoldation. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

SPY Daily, $ SPY
spy d
SPY Weekly, $ SPY
spy w

The SPY started the week continuing the consolidation of last week’s move before pulling back to the 20 day SMA. It was not a long fall and it found support at the 20 day SMA riding it up slowly the rest of the week. The price action made a higher low after a higher high again, continuing the uptrend. The RSI on the daily chart held in the bullish range, and the lower low creates a Positive RSI Reversal, with a target of 197.62. This is near the Measured Move of 197.30 from the last leg higher. The Bollinger bands are tightening foreboding a move, and the MACD continues lower, supporting downside. Kind of a mixed bag, so maybe just sideways for a little bit. The weekly chart shows a doji and a 3rd consecutive narrower range week. On this timeframe the RSI is strong and bullish with the MACD rising. These support more upside. There is a second Measured Move above the 197.30 at 202.50 and the round number 200 in between, all places where it could stall. Support lower may come at 194 and 193 followed by 190.40. Possible Consolidation in the Uptrend.

Monday closes the 2nd Quarter and we head into July with the equity market still looking strong. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue in its uptrend while Crude Oil may continue to consolidate in its uptrend. The US Dollar Index is in another short term downtrend while US Treasuries are biased higher, but may need a very short pullback first. The Shanghai Composite continues to grind sideways with Emerging Markets pulling back or consolidating in their uptrend. Volatility looks to remain minuscule keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts show that the SPY and IWM gained some strength to end the week but are still in a range while the QQQ is rising and very strong. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview June 27, 2014

Get my book, Trading Options: Using Technical Analysis to Design Winning Options Trades from Amazon.

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Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through June 2014 Expiry and sign up here

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