Sunk

I last wrote about Cynk Technology Corp back on July 9 when it was at the “lunatic” price of $ 9.70. Well thank goodness I couldn’t short it, because it more than doubled shortly thereafter. And then it got halted. You, ummm, probably know what happened next: When I wrote my history book about the history of financial […]
Slope of Hope

Cleveland’s Best Linkfest!

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Charts/Markets/Business/Economy You Might Not See Otherwise

volume decline

Alan C. Greenberg, 86, Dies; Led Bear Stearns in Good Times and Bad NYT

Turn Your Credit Card Off and On? Cleveland

5 crazy facts about money that you may not know USAToday

ABC’s Robin Roberts to christen new Goodyear airship on Aug. 23 Ohio

Merck aims to hike revenues in China to 1 billion euro by 2018 Reuters

Advanced Drainage stock rises a bit in IPO Dispatch

Former Fifth Third VP convicted of conspiring to defraud bank, taking bribes – Toledo Blade

#new highs

Cleveland Flair

The Orchestra is out at Blossom performing Beethoven and Liszt Saturday and a compilation called Broadway Standing Ovations Sunday.

Things are hopping at Playhouse Square, with Boz Scaggs performing Saturday and for the kids, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone as part of the Summer Movie Series.

Get ready for later in the week when the Ohio Burlesque Festival kicks off. Its gonna be hot!

Speaking of hot, The Burning River Festival is Saturday at Whiskey Island.

Have some outdoor family fun at the Family Unity in the Park event Saturday featuring the O’Jays. Or go over to Mentor for the Headlands Beachfest.

Panic at the Disco hits Jacobs Pavilion Wednesday night

The Indians are still in Kansas City but the Captians are in town all weekend

Dragonfly Facts

A dragonfly is an insect and so has three main body segments and six legs. However, unlike other insects, the dragonfly relies entirely on flight for its movement.

The post Cleveland’s Best Linkfest! appeared first on Dragonfly Capital.

Dragonfly Capital

Interesting Arc Pattern Forming Buy Signal in Harley Davidson HOG

What fascinating pattern is developing into a key support level for Harley Davidson (HOG) shares?

Let’s study the “interesting arc” trendline pattern and note the pivot point that will either serve as a floor of support (a buy signal) or a breakdown reversal signal (should support fail).

Here’s the Broader Picture Daily Chart (note Support):

Let’s start first with the blue support trendline at the $ 62.00 per share level.  With the exception of a quick blip in January, buyers supported the stock at this level.

We’re seeing another potential – not guaranteed – support bounce event that could take shares at least to the falling 20 EMA and 200 SMA overlap near $ 67.00 per share (a logical target if shares do bounce up off this level).

Note also the reversal candle (long shadow) and the buy candle the next day which took price into $ 65.00 per share (a quick bounce).

Focus your attention on this level with respect to an aggressive support buy signal … or should the sellers overtake buyers, it could be a trigger entry to sell shares short (or take stop-losses) under the $ 62.00 level.

We do note a surge in sell volume along with new momentum lows in the momentum oscillator.  Be cautious here.

Now, let’s study the interesting intraday arc pattern developing into this support level:

I highlighted the steady to accelerating sell-off in price from the $ 74.00 level to the current $ 63.00 per share support.

Note the sharp bounce up and push toward the upper “arc” trendline into $ 65.00.

As we’ve seen with prior “Arc” Trendline patterns, a price breakthrough above (or through) the upper trendline – especially when it morphs vertical – can trigger an aggressive reversal-type buy signal.

We’ll be watching for that potential development on the intraday frame.

Nevertheless, I enjoy studying and trading arc patterns and Harley Davidson shares (HOG) may provide another educational example (playing out in real time) to follow into the near future.

By the way, we’re seeing a successful outcome of the “Arc Trendline” Pattern I highlighted in Electronic Arts (EA) earlier in the week – check out that example as well.

If you’d like to learn more about similar “Arc Trendline” patterns,  see any number of prior posts on this concept of “Parabolic/Arc Trendlines:”

“Charting the Long-Term Parabolic Arc Trendline in the S&P 500 since 2009?

“Strength in WYNN and the Parabolic Price Arc

“March Crude Oil Structure and One of My Favorite (Arc) Patterns”

“March Check-up on (Intraday Arc Trendline) Internals at the Highs”

Arc Trendline on the Weekly US Dollar Index (still in motion)”

Key Inflection (and Arc Trendline Lesson) in Apple AAPL” (great lesson)

The Dominant “Arc” Trendlines to Watch this Week in Gold

Intraday Rounded Arc Playing out (SP500)

Lesson in Trading Intraday Arc Trendline Breaks/Reversals

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

SPY Trends and Influencers July 26, 2014

Written By: DragonFly Capital

A weekly excerpt from the Macro Review analysis sent to subscribers on 10 markets and two timeframes.

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, heading into the week that the equity markets were again mixed. Elsewhere it looked for Gold ($ GLD) to continue lower in its consolidation while Crude Oil ($ USO) continued lower as well. The US Dollar Index ($ UUP) had a slight upward bias in the sideways price action while US Treasuries ($ TLT) were biased to continue higher. The Shanghai Composite ($ SSEC) remained stuck in a sideways rut while Emerging Markets ($ EEM) consolidated at resistance. Volatility ($ VIX) looked to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s $ SPY, $ IWM and $ QQQ. Their charts showed a mixed picture though, with the QQQ the strongest and looking for more upside, while the SPY consolidated in the uptrend and the IWM was biased lower in the short run within its consolidation.

The week played out with Gold heading lower before rebounding Friday to end the week back up over 1300, while Crude Oil consolidated at last weeks closing level. The US Dollar continued to move slightly higher while Treasuries found new 52 week highs. The Shanghai Composite broke out of its sideways motion higher with Emerging Markets probing at 3 year resistance. Volatility pulled back a bit before rebounding slightly to end near unchanged. The Equity Index ETF’s moved higher early in the week with the SPY and QQQ making new all-time and 14 year highs before a pullback late in the week erased most of the gains. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

SPY Daily, $ SPY
spy d
SPY Weekly, $ SPY
spy w

The SPY started the week with an inside candle on the 20 day SMA but quickly gapped higher to run to new all-time highs. Friday’s pullback filled the gap lower but opened one higher. The RSI on the daily chart is channeling lower but remains in the bullish zone while the MACD is also diverging lower but with a very shallow rate of decline. The 20 day SMA held it as support Friday as has been the case lately. On the weekly chart the picture is more of consolidation in the uptrend. This is not unexpected as the price approaches the big round number 200. The RSI on this timeframe is strong and bullish with a MACD that is leveling. A stronger picture than the daily chart. There is a target at 200 and then 202.50 from a Measured Move above that. Support lower may come at 196.50 and 195 followed by 194 and 193 before the gap between 190.48 and 191.52. Consolidation in the Uptrend.

Heading into the last days of July, the Equity Indexes again are mixed. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue lower in its consolidation while Crude Oil slowly climbs in its broad consolidation. The US Dollar Index is breaking higher and looks to continue in the short run while US Treasuries continue to look good to the upside. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets are also biased to the upside now with the risk that Emerging Markets find resistance. Volatility looks to remain at low levels keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. There chart paint a mixed picture though with the QQQ looking strong and ready to continue higher while the SPY consolidated in the uptrend and the IWM pulls back in the consolidation range. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview July 25, 2014

Get my book, Trading Options: Using Technical Analysis to Design Winning Options Trades from Amazon.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through July 2014 Expiry and sign up here

The post SPY Trends and Influencers July 26, 2014 appeared first on Dragonfly Capital.

Dragonfly Capital

Can You Keep it Down Please? I am Trading

Hi Mr. Bellafiore,

Terrific book, thank you for writing it. I have the audio version. I ordered it two minutes after I read a comment from one person saying that he had listened to it six times.

Due to my tape / chart reading ability combined with having read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator six times (and other books less so) I was very recently able to achieve a (solid) returns in 60 days through day and swing trading.

It was done without leverage or options, and primarily in swing trading stocks under $ 3.00 which had fallen 80-90%. I bought the positions at their support levels shortly before their going into bullish Read more […]
SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog

STTG Market Recap July 25, 2014

Indexes gapped down and stayed down all session as weakness in Amazon.com and Visa hurt morale a bit. The S&P 500 fell 0.48% and the NASDAQ 0.50%. Late in the day Goldman Sachs released a note saying they are “neutral” on equities over three months as it sees a slide in bonds leading to a temporary selloff in stocks.
Original post: STTG Market Recap July 25, 2014

Read the full article…

Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com


Stock Trading To Go

Macro Week in Review/Preview July 25, 2014

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested, heading into the week that the equity markets were again mixed. Elsewhere it looked for Gold to continue lower in its consolidation while Crude Oil continued lower as well. The US Dollar Index had a slight upward bias in the sideways price action while US Treasuries were biased to continue higher. The Shanghai Composite remained stuck in a sideways rut while Emerging Markets consolidated at resistance. Volatility looked to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts showed a mixed picture though, with the QQQ the strongest and looking for more upside, while the SPY consolidated in the uptrend and the IWM was biased lower in the short run within its consolidation.

The week played out with Gold heading lower before rebounding Friday to end the week back up over 1300, while Crude Oil consolidated at last weeks closing level. The US Dollar continued to move slightly higher while Treasuries found new 52 week highs. The Shanghai Composite broke out of its sideways motion higher with Emerging Markets probing at 3 year resistance. Volatility pulled back a bit before rebounding slightly to end near unchanged. The Equity Index ETF’s moved higher early in the week with the SPY and QQQ making new all-time and 14 year highs before a pullback late in the week erased most of the gains. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

The post Macro Week in Review/Preview July 25, 2014 appeared first on Dragonfly Capital.

Dragonfly Capital

Bella Interview on Blog Talk Radio

Listen to this trading interview with Bella on Blog Talk Radio hosted by Aleksander Danilov of Solutionsology.com by clicking this link here.

Bella discusses:

1) Why he wrote The PlayBook

2) Process: How The PlayBook and the SMBU Performance Center powered by Tradervue helps traders develop a process where they can build from their strengths.

3) Following like-mind traders on StockTwits (@annemarietrades, @alphatrends, @steenbab, @harmongreg for example).

4) The JV with the Kershner Trading Group and the business model:

Back experienced traders and take all down-side risk
Provide significant downside
Offer Read more […]
SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog

The Shanghai Shuffle ‘n Surge

China’s Shanghai Index has been quietly rallying since it approached the 2000 major support level once again in mid-June, as shown on the Daily chart of SSEC below. A recent surge has pushed price above the 200 MA, while the RSI, MACD, and Stochastics indicators remained above the zero levels and continued to rise. Near-term support sits around 2090…a hold above this level […]
Slope of Hope

Emerging Markets Are Just Getting Interesting

Written By: DragonFly Capital

There has been a lot of hype over the last 6 months about the run up in Emerging Markets, to which I say ‘meh’. Yes the Emerging Market ETF, $ EEM, has risen 20% but look at the bigger picture. The chart below shows that the price has been moving in a range between 35 and 45 for 3 years. A good move up in a channel, yes. On fire, no.

eem

All that may be about to change though. Here is how the pieces stack up. First that Elliott Wave stuff we talked about yesterday in the Nasdaq is working here too. The peak of Wave 1 pulled back almost entirely to 2 and now the subwaves in wave 3 would look to take the price a lot higher. like over 100. But that may be getting ahead of ourselves. A little bit of a shorter timeframe sees a Deep Crab harmonic that does not look to reverse until about 80. Still a long way off. In the shorter time frame the price is peeking above the channel this month. The Bollinger bands are opening higher, the RSI is break above its range and the MACD is heading up as it makes a higher high. A monthly close over the channel may be the signal for you to load up the boat on Emerging Markets.

Get my book, Trading Options: Using Technical Analysis to Design Winning Options Trades.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through July 2014 Expiry and sign up here

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Dragonfly Capital

Training for Trading Success

Think back to the last time you experienced the opportunity to watch a world class performer, someone who really put on an amazing show. It doesn’t matter whether it was a musician, a sports athlete, an actress, a doctor or a business owner. When you see one of these performers in action, you can’t help but admire their skills. It truly is a work of art. And it makes me wonder, “How many hours, days, years or even decades of practice and performances did it take to be able to perform at that level?” How many times have they tried to master their skills and failed before they finally got it right?” And more importantly Read more […]
SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog

Finding and Increasing your Trading Edge

One trader on our desk offers a best practice to emulate.
This trader had been gross negative 3/4 past months prior to June.  He is a hard worker, focused on the markets, disciplined and well-trained.  He is one of the guys who can make it.
Yet, while I wouldn’t say it was a large deal that he was not yet positive consistently given his youth to trading others in his class are already consistently profitable.  He could do better.
Prior to the start of June, I chatted with him in my office about his edge.  He brought everything else needed to be a CPT.
Bella: Where do you have edge?
He responded in specificity.
Bella: Have Read more […]
SMB Capital – Day Trading Blog