What does “left-wing” and “anti-austerity” mean in Greece if they can’t print or borrow money?

The New York Times has a story about how a party they characterize as “left-wing” and “anti-austerity” has won an election in Greece. Given that the country does not have its own currency, what can such a party do as a practical matter? If they can’t print money because other nations control the Euro and they can’t borrow because investors won’t lend more, what can these new leaders do?

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Support, A Breakout, and Missing Out in Netflix NFLX

If you didn’t catch Netflix (NFLX) off the critical support level, and now the breakout event, have you missed the boat on profiting from this rally?

Let’s take a look at the chart, key levels, and yes the upside targets to play for from here.

We’ll start with the Daily Chart:

Price gapped lower in October, pushing back from the $ 330 level to the underside of the falling 20 day EMA into $ 400.

Then, price pushed to a new low, creating a Double Bottom with Positive Divergence pattern off the $ 320 per share level.

Keep this level in mind – it was a critical Weekly Chart Support Floor (that built the foundation for the rally).

Volume surged with price on the two days prior to the big earnings breakout gap through the $ 350 resistance level.

After market close on January 20th, traders reacted favorably to Netflix’s earnings, instantly surging price higher above the 200 day SMA and $ 400 level.

Have you missed the boat on this trade?

For most traders, probably as we tend to prefer buying on retracements or into support.

Most traders don’t feel comfortable buying an outright breakout.  It’s riskier and more difficult to place stops.

However, the “breakout buy” strategy can work and yes, Netflix can continue trading even higher.

Right now, focus on the current price pivot into $ 440.

Netflix would trigger another breakout buy through “Open Air” above $ 440 to target the $ 470 level.

In the future, a movement above $ 470 opens shares to trade through another bullish pathway to new highs.

Here’s the reference chart on the Weekly Frame:

I simply wanted to highlight the importance of higher timeframe reference (support) levels which is the case here into $ 330 per share.

Note the examples where price traded into this level and buyers collectively bought shares at this key pivot.

Yes, the earnings surge sent price flying toward the highs, through the $ 375 cluster, and now we’re focusing on the probabilities of price continuing through $ 440 and $ 450 toward the $ 480 level or even higher than that.

It’s fine to miss out on opportunities – don’t feel horrible about them – but learn lessons so you can recognize and react without emotion to similar situations in the future.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


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Top Trade Ideas for the Week of January 26, 2015: The Rest

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Here are the Rest of the Top 10:

CNOOC, Ticker: $ CEO
ceo

CNOOC, $ CEO, sold off with the Crude Oil decline, but began a consolidation process in December. It ended the week pressing against downtrending resistance and the 20 day SMA, unable to move over it. But the MACD and RSI are diverging higher. The RSI is making a new 4 month high as it moves over the mid line. Watch for price to follow higher.

Catamaran, Ticker: $ CTRX
ctrx

Catamaran, $ CTRX, moved higher off of a bottom in October into a consolidation zone that started in early December. Friday left the price testing resistance for the second time. With the MACD crossing up last week as a buy signal, and the RSI rising watch for a break of resistance higher.

KKR, Ticker: $ KKR
kkr

KKR, $ KKR, has made a Champagne Coupe Bottom™, finding itself at the top of the rim Friday. As it arrives there the RSI is rising and strong while the MACD is crossing up, giving a buy signal.

Lear, Ticker: $ LEA
lea

Lear, $ LEA, rose from the October low into a consolidating pattern as well. With a rising trend support, the ascending triangle is building now as price sits at resistance Friday. The RSI is rising and bullish while the MACD is crossing up. You know the drill.

Stamps.com, Ticker: $ STMP
stmp

Stamps.com, $ STMP, has run through a long Cup and Handle pattern through 2014. Friday showed sings of the price breaking the handle to the upside. This came with the RSI bouncing off the lower limit of the bullish zone and the MACD turning, and heading for a bullish cross up.

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into the last week of January sees the equity markets churning, but at different paces. Elsewhere look for Gold to continue in its uptrend while Crude Oil continues lower. The US Dollar Index also looks to continue higher while US Treasuries consolidate in the uptrend. The Shanghai Composite is taking a breather in its uptrend but Emerging Markets are breaking higher, at least in the short term.

Volatility looks to remain low but drifting gently higher over time slowing the wind at the back of the equity market. The equity index ETF’s are reacting differently to these factors. The IWM is continuing its consolidation but with sings it may break higher, while the SPY consolidates in its uptrend, perhaps passing the baton to the small caps. The QQQ has been acting mostly like the SPY but looks much stronger, with a possible break of a bull flag higher brewing. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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Quick guide to understanding modern sociology

This New Yorker story about sociologist Howard Becker is an efficient way to learn about the field. I wonder if it also shows why American politics is more fragmented today than 50 years ago when everyone watched the same TV shows at night (since there were only three channels). It seems that each group has its own rules and considers other groups to be “deviant.” If there is no popular culture that is truly universally popular then a society can support more groups.

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

STTG Market Recap Jan 23, 2015

Friday was a generally quiet session until the closing 90 minutes when sellers came in; the S&P 500 fell 0.55% while the NASDAQ gained 0.16%. A pretty significant warning by shipper UPS might be something to watch for an economic perspective – this is a company that moves a lot of goods around the country. Maybe it was just specific to the Christmas season but if there is another warning…

Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com


Stock Trading To Go

Why is political corruption illegal if it is what New York voters want?

This New York Times story says that Sheldon Silver, recently arrested for violating corruption laws, was repeatedly reelected by voters “despite years of investigations, suspicions and rumors of impropriety.” In other words, most voters knew that he was corrupt but still wanted him as their representative in the state legislature. Does it make sense for the Feds to say “You voters cannot have the politician that you want”? Should a state be able to opt out of Federal anti-corruption rules? The stuff that Silver was doing doesn’t affect interstate commerce. Why wasn’t this a matter for New York prosecutors and courts to handle as they saw fit?

Separately, I don’t see why it is a news story that political corruption is common in New York. The state and local government is a larger fraction of the economy in New York than anywhere else in the U.S. (Tax Foundation), which means that there is more at stake and therefore more potentially for sale. The New York Post says “Virtually nothing happens [in Albany] that isn’t driven by self-dealing” and suggests that it isn’t too different at the federal level (story).

Coincidentally we’ve been trying to interview some New York legislators this week, trying to add some color to our book. We start by sending them email background such as the following:

We’re interested in the thought process that goes into making family law and are wondering if you can answer some questions for us about New York. Compared to most other states, New York is an outlier in at least the following areas: (1) children who would have a 50/50 shared parenting arrangement in other states would be in the sole custody of one parent in New York (seeing the other parent as an every-other-weekend “visitor”), (2) a custody lawsuit victor earning $ 10 million per year can collect 50 percent of the defeated parent’s after-tax middle class income (because New York does not use an “income shares” model of child support, unlike most states).

What is the public policy rationale for New York being the land of the winner-take-all custody and child support lawsuit? If this makes sense for children why did neighboring Pennsylvania become more or less a 50/50 shared parenting state?

What is the public policy rationale for taking half of the spending power from a middle class parent who lost a custody lawsuit and giving that money to a rich investment banker or physician? How are children served if one biological parent is more or less impoverished while the other one is made a few percent richer?

What is the rationale for different children having different cash values depending on the judge assigned to the case? Attorneys told us that judges all use the same percentage-of-income formula for calculating child support but they cap the quantity of income used at different levels. So a child support plaintiff in front of one judge could end up with 17 percent of $ 400,000 every year and a plaintiff in front of a different judge could end up with 17 percent of $ 200,000 every year. How can it be “justice” when children who live next door to each other yield different amounts of cash given equivalent incomes for the defendant parents? Why doesn’t New York have a state-wide statutory cap on child support like Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Alaska, or Texas?

What is the public policy rationale for different children having different cash values depending on when the defendant parent was sued? As noted in our book, “The co-parent of the first child is entitled to 17 percent of the defendant’s income. The co-parent of the second child is entitled to only 17 percent of the remaining 83 percent. The co-parent of the third child is entitled to only 17 percent of the remaining 69 percent. At this point the defendant has been reduced to poverty by a combination of child support orders and taxes. A fourth plaintiff would be unable to collect anything for a fourth child, even if the previous three plaintiffs had all married into households with high incomes.” If the system is supposed to be for the benefit of children why does one child have superior rights to another depending on when a parent chose to file a lawsuit?

So far most of them are ducking us with creative excuses!

[Mayor de Blasio also likes Silver, according to the New York Post: “Although the charges announced today certainly are very serious, I want to note that I’ve always known Shelly Silver to be a man of integrity, and he certainly has due-process rights, and I think it’s important that we let the judicial process play out,” the mayor said at City Hall.]

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Jan 22 Euro QE Market Update and Stock Scan

Like the expected knee-jerk reaction, stocks rallied on news that the European Central Bank will engage in a Quantitative Easing program similar to that in the United States (three rounds).

With the expected bullish outcome occurring, our job is to go with the money flow as stocks rally while being cautious of any sign of a reversal.

We’ll start our update and stock scan with our S&P 500 level chart:

At this point, it’s just buy the pullbacks and breakouts as traders react in knee-jerk reaction to the “Stimulus = Higher Stock Prices” thesis.

The intraday trend remains higher and money flow is still positive into equities.

We should thus continue to focus on the buy/long side while this situation (trend) continues.

Breadth strongly confirms the rally:

The grid above reflects a strongly positive situation in money flow across sectors.

The weakest sector is the defensive Utilities – then Energy – while all other sectors are strongly positive.

All sectors except Utilities and Energy are near 100% breadth – which means (almost) every single stock in the sector is positive today.

Again, we’ll focus on bullish candidates only.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks:

Just to select four, Netflix (NFLX), EBAY, Agrium (AGU), and Yum Brands (YUM) (bonus – Dollar Tree DLTR).

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

None.

Do not focus on the short-side of this stimulus-news driven market.  That’s a great way to lose money quickly.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


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Assembling a BioTech Trade in Assembly Biosciences

Written By: DragonFly Capital

101833128-5be2bc91957788dd881020ad6b7342369592a7b1.530x298

Biotech has been a hot area for over a year. And every time it looks like the top may be in and pullback underway prices reverse higher again. Most of this market sector is driven by new drug trials and approvals. I know nothing about that. But what I do know is that when investors and traders learn about the results big moves can happen. And most often someone knows early and the move starts ahead of the data. It may not happen every time or even the next time. But that is some color from my view.

One name that has been on my radar for a couple of months in this space is Assembly Biosciences ($ ASMB). They may do great things or not (they deal with poop), but that is besides the point. The chart of the stock price is what interests me. This stock had a massive drop in February 2014 and has since settled since then at the 23.6% retracement of the down move. It is not ready yet, but on a move over the October highs, over 9.47 the 38.2% retracement level at 11.58 or the 50% level at 13.85 or higher would be the target. There is no resistance until then. There is not much short interest in this stock, but with low daily volume it still could squeeze higher on the trigger.

asmb

you can set an alert for this or just place a Good til Canceled Contingent Buy Order. This order would trigger on a move over 9.50 to buy the stock whether you are watching it or not. the daily chart (not shown) has the stock moving higher over the 20 day SMA with a rising RSI and MACD. So now may not be a bad time to get ready.

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STTG Market Recap Jan 20, 2015

Indexes gapped up at the open, immediately sold off, stayed negative most of the day – then staged a late day rally to get into the green. The S&P 500 gained 0.15% and the NASDAQ 0.44%. With the European Central Bank meeting later in the week it would seem many don’t want to step in front of that to make large bets. President Mario Draghi will probably announce a 550 billion-euro ($ 638…

Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com


Stock Trading To Go

Time to Shop for Natural Grocers

Written By: DragonFly Capital

naturalgrocers

Specialty grocery stores have been all the rage with shoppers for several years. Starting with Whole Foods Markets and moving into The Fresh Market their fresh produce and organic growers have left a big mark on the food buying public. Smaller regional grocers are sprouting up around the country now as well.

Despite this popularity their stock prices took a beating in 2014. Many lost over 50% of their value. But that is ending and some of their stocks are starting to rebound again. one that I am watching in Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage ($ NGVC). The weekly chart below shows the bounce off of a bottom at 16 in October. The rise since is confirming a bearish Shark harmonic that carries a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) at 34.50, still a long way above.

ngvc w

This is the most conservative PRZ and there is a second at 40, and were I instead to start the ‘X’ at the March high a 3rd at 41.30 and 4th at 48.40. The Bollinger Bands® show a clear change of character from a falling to a basing to a rising channel. The center line, the 20 week SMA (roughly 100 day SMA), is also running higher now with price above it.

ngvc d

Looking more closely at that bottoming pattern reveals a Cup and Handle pattern on the daily chart. This pattern is triggering as price breaks the Handle higher and carries a target to 41. As it starts to trigger it has support for a run higher from the MACD crossing up and the RSI is bullish and rising as well.

Two timeframes, with two types of technical analysis and several indicators all pointing higher. Perhaps 2015 will be a better year for Natural Grocers.

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Oxfam report on rich bastards

The New York Times ran a story on Oxfam’s “warning about deepening global inequality”. It seems that 80 rich bastards have $ 1.9 trillion, “nearly the same amount shared by the 3.5 billion people who occupy the bottom half of the world’s income scale.”

Could this be right? The most valuable capital on the planet is human capital–the ability of people to produce stuff. The gross world product (GWP) is currently at about $ 75 trillion in nominal dollars (assuming that is also the unit for the $ 1.9 trillion). So if these 80 rich people wanted to be generous they could fund a 10-day vacation for everyone on the planet who is currently working. Ergo they are certainly rich but aren’t 3.5 billion people way richer if you factor in their ability to produce stuff?

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Netflix and Cree Earnings Ideas

Written By: DragonFly Capital

The ideas below were given to premium users at noon for earnings tonight. Can still join at $ 618 with a free signed copy of my book through midnight here:

Two names today, that report after the close tonight, Cree, $ CREE, and Netflix, $ NFLX.

Cree, $ CREE
cree

Cree, $ CREE, made a double top in 2013 and spent most of 2014 falling. in the last quarter though it has started to base. Since December it has formed a descending triangle with a a base at 29.20 and tightening against resistance. The RSI is running sideways without a signal along with the MACD. There is support lower at 27.30. There is resistance higher at 32.60 and 34.10 followed by 36.70 and a gap to fill to 39.45. The reaction to the last 6 earnings reports has been a move of about 14.17% on average or $ 4.40 making for an expected range of 26.60 to 35.40. The at-the money weekly January Straddles suggest a smaller $ 3.10 move by Expiry with Implied Volatility at 123% above the February at 55%. Short interest is high at 18%. Open interest favors the 33.5 Strike with a range of 29 to 30 on a disappointment move lower.

Trade Idea 1: Buy the January 23 Expiry 32/33.5 1×2 Call Spread for free.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the January 23 Expiry 32/33.5/35 Call Butterfly for $ 0.30.

Trade Idea 3: Buy the January 23/February 33 Call Calendar for $ 0.50.

Trade Idea 4: Buy the January 9 Expiry 30/28.5 1×2 Put Spread for free.

#1, #2 and #3 are straight directional upside looking for a reversal. #1 uses margin and #3 is for longer term. #4 uses margin and covers the downside. I prefer #1 or #2 together with #4 , or #3.

Netflix, $ NFLX
nflx

Netflix, $ NFLX, was at all-time highs in the summer and has pulled back since. Most of that happened when they last reported. Since the gap down it has consolidated against the support level of 314 lately and is again pressing on falling trend resistance. The RSI is rising and making a 3 month high into earnings with a MACD crossed up, signalling higher. There is support lower at 314 followed by 300 and 283 before 267 and 241. There is resistance higher at 350 and 377 before 392 and 420. The reaction to the last 6 earnings reports has been a move of about 10.18% on average or $ 34.50 making for an expected range of 303 to 375. The at-the money weekly January Straddles suggest a similar $ 36 move by Expiry with Implied Volatility at 137% above the February at 54%. Short interest is elevated at 8.6%. Open interest favors the 345 Strike this week.

Trade Idea 1: Buy the January 23 Expiry 320/300 Put Spread for $ 5.80.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the January 23 Expiry 320/300/280 Put Butterfly for $ 2.50.

Trade Idea 3: Buy the January 23 Expiry 340/350 Call Spread for $ 5.

Trade Idea 4: Buy the January 23 Expiry 340/350 Call Spread and sell the 300 Put for free.

Trade Idea 5: Buy the February 340/350 Call Spread and sell the January 23 Expiry/February 300 Put Calendar for $ 2.

#1 and #2 are downside trades with #2 a slightly better risk reward , but relying on a stop at 300 where there is also large Open Interest. #3 is simple to the upside and #4 adds leverage. #5 gives it more time and protects the downside this week. I like #2 for the downside and #5 for the upside.

The post Netflix and Cree Earnings Ideas appeared first on Dragonfly Capital.

Dragonfly Capital

Obama’s State of the Union Speech

Working through the transcript of Obama speech

Obama wants to do the opposite of what Gregory Clark would suggest for building a strong tax base in the long run: tax incentives for less-successful-than-average Americans to have more children (“for every middle-class and low-income family … a new tax cut of up to $ 3,000 per child, per year.”)

“Send me a bill that gives every worker in America the opportunity to earn seven days of paid sick leave.” Since employers have a constant amount that they can or will pay in wages, this means that in the long run healthy people will be paid relatively less and sick people, or those with sick relatives and children, will be paid relatively more.

“over the past five years, our businesses have created more than 11 million new jobs.” The Census Bureau says that in the same period of time the population has grown by 12 million people… (BLS shows that the number of workers is just barely larger today compared to January 2008, when the population of the U.S. was smaller; I’m wondering if this “11 million new jobs” figure fails to include a subtraction for jobs eliminated.)

“Our high school graduation rate has hit an all-time high. And more Americans finish college than ever before.” — it is not worth investigating whether those degrees have any correlation with learning or capability.

“health care inflation at its lowest rate in fifty years.” – – when you spend more than any other country in the world it is hard to keep outdistancing the competition for who can build the biggest bonfire of cash.

“Basic childcare for Jack and Henry costs more than their mortgage, and almost as much as a year at the University of Minnesota.” — because there are so few American workers who have the skills and responsibility required of a babysitter, day care centers have to pay big salaries to attract the competent and must pass these costs along to consumers. (Also we piled regulations onto those day care centers and those costs must be added too.)

“nothing helps families make ends meet like higher wages. That’s why this Congress still needs to pass a law that makes sure a woman is paid the same as a man for doing the same work.” — i.e., we need a planned economy. “So to every CEO in America, let me repeat: If you want somebody who’s going to get the job done, hire a veteran.” — Obama himself will do the planning because he knows better than private business managers what a productive employee looks like.

“Since 2010, America has put more people back to work than Europe, Japan, and all advanced economies combined. ” — we are a dwarf among midgets.

“21st century businesses, including small businesses, need to sell more American products overseas.” — now Obama will plan the world economy too.

“21st century businesses will rely on American science, technology, research and development.” — we will export Google Glass to Africa.

“Tonight, I’m launching a new Precision Medicine Initiative to bring us closer to curing diseases like cancer and diabetes.” — Nixon declared war on cancer 44 years ago. This new war is going to work out better.

“We’re upholding the principle that bigger nations can’t bully the small – by opposing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine’s democracy, and reassuring our NATO allies.” — We support Ukrainian democracy in any territory that Russia doesn’t feel like annexing.

“No foreign nation, no hacker, should be able to shut down our networks, steal our trade secrets, or invade the privacy of American families, especially our kids.” — the North Koreans want to be our friends on Facebook so that they can see what our kids look like (Snopes).

“I’m not a scientist” … which is why I am going to be making $ 200 million giving speeches starting in 2016 instead of making $ 81,480 per year like a PhD Biochemist (BLS).

“As Americans, we have a profound commitment to justice … Since I’ve been President, we’ve worked responsibly to cut the population of GTMO in half.” — because if something is unjust we should do it only half the time.

“I urge this Congress to finally pass the legislation we need to better meet the evolving threat of cyber-attacks, combat identity theft, and protect our children’s information.” — because many cyber-attacks are targeted at kindergarteners and the only way to keep children’s information safe is to give the federal government more power.

“A better politics is one where we debate without demonizing each other” … but let’s make the rich demons pay with some new taxes (“And let’s close the loopholes that lead to inequality by allowing the top one percent to avoid paying taxes on their accumulated wealth.”)

“We still may not agree on a woman’s right to choose, but surely we can agree … that every woman should have access to the health care she needs.” — men aren’t entitled to health care if they fall between the Medicaid and Obamacare cracks.

“no one benefits when a hardworking [immigrant] mom is taken from her child” — but the Federal government will encourage states to provide financial incentives for mothers and their lawyers to take fathers away from children.

“surely we can agree that the right to vote is sacred; that it’s being denied to too many” — and we all know that it is racist white Southern Republicans who are doing the denying…

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Jan 16 Stock Scan and Reversal Market Update

After yesterday’s Swiss Franc surprise (see the “Aftermath Update” post from this morning), the US S&P not only stabilized but is showing signs of a bullish short-term reversal.

We’ll start our update and stock scan with our S&P 500 level chart:

Mainly, we’re focusing our attention right now on the 2,010 level for a possible breakout and bullish surge through “Open Air” toward 2,020 or 2,027.

For now, focus your attention on the 2,005 to 2,010 neutral zone with the bull/bear levels in play.

Note the lengthy positive momentum and TICK (internal) divergence, suggesting a possible rally.

What is Sector Breadth revealing about today’s session? Let’s discover together:

All sectors are bullish today with Energy (along with Technology and Health Care) showing relative strength today.

When all sectors are strong – or weak – there’s not much we can do except see this as a sign of strength.

We have potential bullish trend continuation plays in the following stocks:

Altisource (ASPS), BP, Activision (ATVI), and Sanofi Aventis (SNY).

Potential downtrending candidates exist in stocks showing relative weakness today:

Vornado (VNO), Myriad (MYGN), Caterpillar (CAT), and Align Tech (ALGN).

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Daily Commentary and Idealized Trades summaries for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


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