In Tim We Trust

I’m literally just off the slopes (the ski slopes, not this Slope), but I’ve got to get this off my chest right now. First, let me show you the chart that tears me to ribbons: That is, of course, the ES for the past couple of days (with that overrated nincompoop Tom Lee featured, who […]
Slope of Hope

Dec 31 Market Reversal Day and Stock Scan

Stocks got off to a bearish start, reversed mid-morning, and then reversed back just now.

Be safe as we trade the final day of 2015.

Let’s update our levels for the S&P 500 Index and note the big trending stocks today:

In-depth analysis is always provided to members of the Premium Daily Reports – I hope you’ll join and benefit.

Be sure to read the “2015 was Flat but not Boring” update – it details the S&P 500 performance for 2015.

For now, we’re still using the 2,060 area as a critical pivot point – bullish above; bearish beneath.

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Let’s see what our Breadth Chart reveals about current market strength (or weakness):

In today’s Sector Strength chart, Energy stands out as the big winner of the day with 80% of stocks positive.

All other sectors are in the red (less stocks positive than negative) on an otherwise sell session.

Here’s a top-level or full-perspective view of today’s S&P 500 stock performance (courtesy of FinViz.com).

Here are today’s strongest trending (intraday) names – candidates for pro-trend continuation:

Spirit Aerosystems (SPR), Tortoise Energy (TYG), Enterprise (EPD), and Signet Jewelers (SIG)

Bearish downtrending candidates include the following stocks from our “weakness” scan:

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS), Cirrus Logic (CRUS), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Universal Insurance (UVE)

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Macro Week in Review/Preview December 31, 2015

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested that heading into another holiday shortened week, and one that should prove to be very light on everything the equity markets have, saw equities rebounding but still looking vulnerable, especially the SPY. Elsewhere looked for Gold to consolidate in its downtrend while Crude Oil continued a bounce in its downtrend. The US Dollar Index looked to be weaker short term in consolidation while US Treasuries consolidated.

The Shanghai Composite looked to continue consolidation with an upward bias while Emerging Markets bounced in their consolidation of the downward move. Volatility looked to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts agreed with that in the short term with the IWM looking the strongest. In the intermediate term the SPY looked weakest while the IWM and QQQ continued the sideways churn.

The week played out with Gold probing lower in its consolidation range while the bounce in Crude Oil stalled and it reversed lower. The US Dollar drifted lower while Treasuries met resistance and pulled back. The Shanghai Composite moved sideways in consolidation while Emerging Markets turned back lower in consolidation.

Volatility bounced but stayed in the normal range. The Equity Index ETF’s started the week well making a short term higher high, but gave back most or all of the gains as the week and year closed out. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

Dragonfly Capital

Market Recap Dec 31, 2015

Indexes closed down the year in feeble fashion with a moderate gap down to open, bulls trying to do some buying mid day, but another significant round of selling to close the session. The S&P 500 fell 0.94% and the NASDAQ 1.15% – a bit surprising as you expected “them” to close the S&P 500 up for the year for window dressing purposes. Instead the S&P 500 fell less than 1% for the…

Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com


Stock Trading To Go

Flat but Not Boring Year for 2015 SP500

If the 2,060 level for the S&P 500 seems familiar for you, that’s because it is.  We’ve been here before – a lot.

Check out my most recent post “Gotta Watch this Important Trendline for the S&P 500” for a little background.

Let’s chart the 2015 S&P 500 performance and note how the market traveled in a circle all year.

The S&P 500 opened January 2, 2015 at 2,058 and mid-day December 31st it trades at the same price level.

That’s not to say the market was ‘flat’ all year – we had an upward consolidation drift that gave way to a collapse in August.

Here’s a couple reference posts to study from this period:

“S&P 500 Color Structure Pinpoints Key Areas for You”

“The Thrilling Trading Range of 2015 Continues”

The breakout and collapse thrust price under 1,900 only to rally sharply back to the highs.

Note the correct prediction I made in the video analysis comparing 2015 with the same pattern in 2011 (post).

In fact, 2011 was a great analog for planning the remainder of 2015 after the crash.

For those interested (I certainly am), here’s a direct comparison with 2011 using the same chart frame:

Nevertheless, price recovered back toward the highs and then ended bearishly from November into December.

However, the famous “Santa Claus” Rally materialized the week of Christmas, right on schedule (post).

As we turn the page to 2016, keep the most recent performance – and price levels (2,060) – in mind.

The next tradable “swing” of the market will likely be another departure away from 2,060.

Be safe and have a wonderful New Year!  Prosperity to you and your family in 2016 and beyond.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

How this week’s Top 10 performed, December 31, 2015

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Every month following Options Expiration I post performance metrics of the Dragonfly Capital Model Portfolio. This includes all trades that I entered over time. What it does not include is the one’s I miss for whatever reason (getting lunch, going to the bathroom, etc….). So each week I post the performance of the stocks that were given to subscribers the previous Sunday. All performance is measured against the plan given to subscribers. That is not reflected in the index ETF performance, which there is no stop loss. Here is this week’s:

12-31-2015 4-08-29 PM

Equal Weighted Investment Yield assumes a buy at 1/10 portfolio size for each stock that triggers and accounts for stop loss triggers in the trade plan presented to subscribers (i.e. your performance would be better). Short position performance is calculated opposite of security movement. If the security is labeled no trigger than our trade plan would not have executed a trade (i.e. you would have had no position).

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It’s not too late for Christmas! Contact me at greg@dragonflycap.com and use the code SANTA in the message to get either an annual subscription for $ 556 (10% off) or an annual subscription plus my book signed for $ 600.

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Get my ebook, Markets for 2015 and Beyond, a long term forecast with all proceeds going to charity.

Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through November 2015 and sign up here

Dragonfly Capital

Happy 25th for the Web! (What if Alexander von Humboldt had a blog?)

Happy New Year to all of my readers (except of course Jews, Chinese, and anyone else who has not succumbed to the hegemony of the Gregorian calendar)!

2016 will be the 26th year of the World Wide Web. There were a lot of competing wide-area hypertext system back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but Tim Berners-Lee had the simplest idea and it has come to define “the Internet” for many people (Facebook being the definition for the newest users!).

The microprocessor and network switch folks probably deserve more of the credit for enabling server-mediated collaboration, but we can still celebrate the standards that were successful.

As an example of just how revolutionary this world is, according to The Invention of Nature: Alexander von Humboldt’s New World, the great scientist was nearly bankrupt from the expense of publishing his results.:

[Born into wealth,] Humboldt desperately needed the money from his annual stipend because the cost of his publications had left him, he admitted, ‘ poor as a church mouse’. He had to live on what he earned but he was useless when it came to his finances. ‘The only thing in heaven or earth that M. Humboldt does not understand,’ his English translator had remarked, ‘is business.’

Just imagine if the Web had existed 200 years ago. Humboldt could have put his results out on a free weblog site or pushed them into the old Los Alamos preprint server (now arXiv.org). Perhaps he would have gone insane from trying to format everything in TeX, though…

Readers: If you’re an example of the triumph of hope over experience and therefore still making New Year’s resolutions, please share them in the comments section!

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Damn right we talkin about practice!

I had an informative phone chat with a counterpart of mine at a large international prop firm.  They house thousands of traders globally.  They, like us, back all of their traders.  They, like us, have their own proprietary trading technology that only firm traders can use.  They, like us, trade many different products. He, like me, trains all of the new traders the firm hires.  He said something during our call that deserves a spotlight.This global proprietary trading firm does not allow their traders to trade live until they show consistency on a trading simulator.You might call this proof of concept.You Read more […]
SMB Capital – Trading Education

A building case for Biotech

Written By: DragonFly Capital

biotech_image1

Biotech has been a crazy hot and volatile sector of the stock market in 2015. It has made millionaires and it has cost people millions. The stories change with each stock and the results of each clinical trial. So without real deep fundamental knowledge the best way to participate in this sector may be through ETF’s. One of the most liquid ETF’s in this space is the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF ($ IBB).

The chart for IBB is below. It had the strong pullback in August and then a second strong leg lower in September on Hillary Clinton’s comments on drug prices. But since that September bottom it has been building a series of higher lows. These have come against resistance at 342, where it sits going into the last day of the year. This creates an ascending triangle. A break above this triangle target a move to 396, awfully close to the July high at 400.

ibb

The prospects for this ETF look good into 2016. It has bullish momentum with the RSI rising and in the bullish zone. The MACD is also rising and bullish. And the Bollinger Bands® are opening for a move higher. The lone dark spot is the flat 200 day SMA overhead at 348. A break of the triangle will signal strength in the biotech space and above 348 a confirmed move higher with a solid stop at the 342 triangle level. So much easier than trying to figure which companies will win and which will not.

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Still time left. Contact me at greg@dragonflycap.com and use the code SANTA in the message to get either an annual subscription for $ 556 (10% off) or an annual subscription plus my book signed for $ 600.

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Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through December 2015 and sign up here

Dragonfly Capital

Market Recap Dec 30, 2015

We entered the day relatively overbought on the short term scale so it was no surprise to see a small gap down. The market was exceedingly quiet all session until some fireworks in the last 20 minutes when a bunch of sell orders walked in. To that end the S&P 500 fell 0.72% and the NASDAQ 0.82%. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the year so it will be interesting to see if the S&P…

Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com


Stock Trading To Go