Halloween Emini Fibonacci Grid Daily Update

You’re truly missing out if you’re not bookmarking and following our morning Emini Fibonacci Grid. It works!

Here’s today’s updated Fibonacci and Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

Here’s a reference guide of how to use and trade from these morning updates.

With price collapsing Friday to test the prior low, we’re seeing an expected third bounce/rally higher from this key pivot.

Today, we’re focusing again on the 2,128 level as the bull/bear short-term pivot.

Note the green – bullish above – and red – bearish beneath – pathways to trade the movement away from this pivot.

Be sure to incorporate these levels into your short-term trading.

Want these levels and additional strategy planning in advance each evening?

Get these levels in advance with in-depth planning and trading opportunities by joining the Daily Membership.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).

Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Down Goes Crude Oil on a Mirror Image Rounded Reversal

The “Rounded Reversal” or “Mirror Image Foldback” is one of my favorite chart patterns yet most traders rarely see it develop.

Crude Oil gives us an example of this stealth reversal pattern as a perfect “Mirror Image” pathway develops.

Let’s look at the chart, study the pattern, and plan the future:

First, let’s start with a few quotes from this week’s Intermarket Strategy Planning Report I published for members:

“We went into last weekend expecting a movement DOWN AWAY FROM the $ 50 level on divergences and weak price action and – so far – that’s precisely what we’re seeing.”

“Look to play toward the $ 45.00 level which is best seen on the Daily Chart.”

“Focus your attention now on the $ 48.00 level which is the rising 50 day EMA – IF price fails to bounce/rally here, THEN we’ll expect a continued sell-swing lower toward the $ 45.00 pivot.”

Join us as a member for weekend updates and trading strategy for the week ahead like this example.

In terms of the “Rounded Reversal” or “Mirror Image Foldback” Pattern, the trigger to enter short was the break beneath the $ 50.00 per barrel level.

Very, very aggressive traders could have started small-lot short-selling on the divergences and initial movement down away from our $ 52.00 per share target (beginning October 19th).

Nevertheless, the pattern suggests additional downside action similar to the upside action that created the left side of the pattern.

The right side of the pattern – what’s tradable – should continue to look similar (as is the case currently) to what we saw on the left.

The vertical black line represents the “Mirror” or Midpoint of the pattern.

Continue studying this example and similar “Rounded Reversal” examples and get ready to trade them in real time!

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).

Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Vote to legalize marijuana is a vote to further reduce labor force participation rate?

During America’s period of highest per capita GDP growth, recreational drugs were entirely legal. On the other hand the government wouldn’t give you a free house, free health care, free food, and a free smartphone. My entire lifetime has been marked by a War on Drugs, however, though there are some ballot questions in various states this year proposing to end at least the state-run war on marijuana. There haven’t been any explicit arguments against marijuana legalization in the New York Times, but I’m wondering if “Millions of Men Are Missing From the Job Market” is an implicit argument against ending the war. The Times editorial says, essentially, that Americans are too busy taking prescription opioids to be bothered with a job. If this is indeed the source of the U.S.’s shrinking labor force participation rate compared to, e.g., Singapore, then wouldn’t legal and readily available marijuana further shrink the number of Americans who want to work?

Milton Friedman said that we couldn’t have a welfare state and open borders at the same time. I’m wondering if he were alive whether he would say that we couldn’t have, simultaneously, (1) a welfare state, (2) legal recreational drugs, and (3) a high rate of labor force participation.

[Note that, other than paying taxes to support prosecutors, public defenders, judges, and the prison industry, I don’t have a personal dog in this fight. See my 2011 post regarding random drug testing for pilots.]

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Happy Halloween

As downtrends go this has been uninspiring, but a lower low was made on Friday and I’m wondering about a possible flag channel support hit in the 2095 area. SPX daily chart: Short term resistance I’m taking from ES, and that is very definitely at the new weekly pivot at 2128.75 (2133/4 SPX area), which […]
Slope of Hope

Happy Halloween from Harvard Yard

A week before Halloween I learned that it is not just 6-year-olds who spend at least a week thinking about what to wear for Halloween. Here are some photos taken in Harvard Yard of a kiosk staffed by a couple of Harvard administrators from the HappierHarvard campaign. (The handout says that the staffed kiosk was operated for “two weeks leading up to Halloween.”)


One question raised by the above is whether the woman at the lower left is wearing a geisha outfit or a Noh costume. Either way, wouldn’t it be safe to say that she was wearing Japanese dress? And yet the students surrounding her don’t look Japanese. Did someone preparing the poster go out and find assorted “Orientals” to photograph? Does that imply that all Asian cultures are pretty much the same? And that’s not racist?


Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Cirrus (and the Chinese) push the world’s first personal jet out the door

The Cirrus Jet is certified as of today and will be delivered in December. I think this qualifies as the first legitimate personal/family turbojet-powered aircraft. One-engine-plus-parachute and a service ceiling of FL280 (about 28,000′) are not so exciting if you have a two-pilot crew who fly a couple of times per week. But what about the regular private pilot who wants to take the family to the beach? The pilot who doesn’t want to spend two weeks every year maintaining proficiency at managing various emergencies, especially the failure of one engine while in instrument conditions? The Cirrus Jet is the first turbojet that could be as simple as a four-seat piston-powered plane. (The rest of the very light jets are about as difficult to operate as larger jets and therefore haven’t caught on as expected; if you’re going to do all of that training why not tow 8 seats behind the pilots instead of 4?.)

Anyway, I’m grateful to Cirrus for bringing this to market and especially grateful to the Chinese owners of Cirrus who were willing to fund it!

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Emotional Election Uncertainty? Stick To Your Investing Plan

With the U.S. presidential election less than 2 weeks away, an eerie calm has taken over the markets. The CBOE Fear Gauge (the VIX index) and implied volatility for the broad market SPY ETF options have come down. The markets are not quite ready to say there will be no surprises come Election Day, but implied volatility is on the lower side. Interestingly, the same phenomenon occurred going into the British Exit (BREXIT) vote just a few months ago. Well, there was a surprise outcome from that vote, and it moved the markets rather dramatically if you recall!

Is this the calm before the storm? Or the eye of the storm between the UK vote and the US vote? I’m not saying the same thing is going to happen in the US as it did in the UK, but I find it a little ironic how quickly the markets seem to forget something that happened relatively recently.

Implied volatility, the metric that indicates how markets actually price risk, can be measured across time. There is near term volatility, medium term volatility, and longer term volatility. In fact, the market prices in expected moves in volatility in anticipation of an event, like an earnings announcement or an election. If we take a look at the volatility constellation for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), we see that very near term volatility is priced around 12%, but it jumps to 16% the week of the election. And then we see it tail back down toward 14% by Thanksgiving.

Source: OptionsHouse

Source: OptionsHouse

So, although the markets don’t seem to think anything drastic is going to occur as an outcome from the election, there is indeed a bump in volatility being priced into the market the actual week of the election.

With this election cycle, there is also a lot of emotional uncertainty. It is difficult to remember an election that has such heated rhetoric, including physical confrontations.

It is times like these that force investors to take stock of their assets (pun intended). Here’s a few things all investors should be considering so that uncertain times like this hopefully won’t keep you up all night.

  1. A diversified portfolio. It is important to diversify the holdings in any portfolio. While many active investors translate this to mean holding stocks in different sectors of the market (which, by the way is a very good idea), it is also a good idea to be diversified across asset classes (which can include diversity in options strategies, investments in bonds and investment in futures).
  1. An appropriate risk profile. Different investors are at different stages of their life. Younger investors may have a longer time horizon for their investing than more mature investors. Risk tolerance is a personal choice, but it’s good to keep perspective on your own time horizons and manage risk according to when you may need to access the funds from different assets. If you are going to need the cash, it is always better to sell an asset when you want to sell it rather than when you have to sell it.
  1. Protection? People are very comfortable with the concept of protection when it comes to their healthcare, their automobile, or their house. Not many people are familiar with the concept of protection for their financial assets. There are indeed options strategies to specifically mitigate the risk of large, significant moves in stock prices. Buying puts is a straight up basic one, but there are other ones as well (like using stock-replacement calls instead of continuing to hold a long equity-only portfolio).
  1. Remain calm and stick to your plan. It is very easy to lose focus of your long term strategy with the emotional upheaval that you see and read in the press on a daily basis. If you have followed the advice from above, you should be able to sleep comfortably at night knowing that you have done the right things and that your assets, and your financial plan, are on the right road – even if there is uncertainty, or possibly a speed bump up ahead.
  1. And lastly, please exercise your right to vote!

The post Emotional Election Uncertainty? Stick To Your Investing Plan appeared first on OptionsHouse.

OptionsHouse Blog – OptionsHouse

Empty Promises

I was tidying up some things in my home office today, and I noticed a couple of binders that I hadn’t looked at in years. They were labeled “Tim’s Trading Tome” volumes one and two. In them were hundreds of pages and charts I had collected in late 2008, 2009, and 2010, Early 2009 of […]
Slope of Hope

Weekly Market Recap Oct 30, 2016

Opening missive: It’s sexy, it’s hot. A well coiffed man is on the top of the home page. Two less well coiffed men sporting the only shirts they own WITH collars are well below the fold (nevermind them).

Please check out our sister site’s new redesign – StockBrokers.com. If you don’t, a thousand locusts MAY invade your home. May.

The week that was…
Four mild down days following an up…

Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com

Stock Trading To Go