Meet for pupusas in Washington, D.C. on Saturday? Or Monday morning coffee?

Folks:

I’m going to D.C. this weekend and propose a get-together at either or both of the following:

  • 5 pm on Saturday, December 3 at Don Juan in Mt. Pleasant for pupusas and drinks.
  • Monday morning, December 5, for coffee (maybe near the National Gallery of Art or even at the NGA)

Feel free to email ( philg at mit.edu) or post here.

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Our Make or Break Emini Level Update Nov 30

I’m not sure the buyers (bulls) know the meaning of a “pullback” but here we are, near the highs again.

All joking aside, Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

Buyers aren’t willing to let this November rally die.  They’re aggressively stepping in on tiny pullbacks.

This shouldn’t frustrate us because we continue to balance reality (non-retracement) with probabilities (that favor a retracement).

Nevertheless, the plans remain the same – odds favor a pullback to lower levels while the “alternate” thesis calls for bullish “short-squeeze” plays above the 2,210 level.

Don’t predict – plan and react to what actually happens which could be a surprise short-squeeze.

Want these levels and additional strategy planning in advance each evening?

Get these levels in advance with in-depth planning and trading opportunities by joining the Daily Membership.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Verizon offers me a Black Friday deal that is almost impossible to accept

I can’t figure out Black Friday. If we live in an efficient economy, in which retailers such as Amazon, Costco, and Walmart, have pushed everything to the limit, how is it possible for anyone to offer a temporarily lower price and not just bleed cash?

Verizon’s behavior is the most bizarre. Their computer systems sent me the following text:

FREE VZW MSG: This weekend only! Get one of our best phones for $ 100 when you trade in your device. $ 4.17/mo after trade and bill credits over 24 mos; 0% APR. Call 866.396.3999 or visit a Verizon Store.. Device pymt purch req’d. Reply “X” to stop msgs.

I’ve been wanting to upgrade my iPhone 6 Plus to a 7 Plus in order to take portraits with the normal lens that Apple calls a “telephoto” lens. So I called the number. After literally one hour and three minutes on hold the agent answers, looks up my number, and says “that’s a small business account so I can’t sell you a phone. Let me transfer you to the right person.” Before he transferred me he explained that to get a 7 Plus I would have to pay $ 200 over 24 months, or about $ 8/month. The person to whom I was transferred said that his job was helping people with already-placed Internet orders and he couldn’t transfer me to the small business sales people, but I could call them directly. I did that and waited on hold for about 30 minutes until the robot hung up on me (presumably because it was closing time for the humans).

Calls later in the weekend weren’t more successful. Even before calling, I had tried and failed to arrange the upgrade using their Web site. Though I was logged in and it knew everything about the phone line and the account, the server offered me the low-priced upgrade offer but then there was no way to actually purchase it (selecting a phone and then a trade-in resulted in an “internal server error” page).

This raises a whole bunch of questions:

  • Given that Verizon has computers, why wouldn’t they send me the correct phone number for my type of account in the first place?
  • Given that Verizon knows that I have an iPhone 6 Plus, the basis for the $ 100 offer, why didn’t the message just say “reply 1 to get an iPhone 7 Plus mailed to your billing address”? (and then walk through some color and memory choices) Why ask people to call human agents when it can be predicted in advance that they won’t be able to pick up the phone? At least get people to register that they want the upgrade and then deal with them calmly over the next week?
  • Why would Verizon want to do something that was almost guaranteed to result in hours of wasted time and frustration for a long-term customer? (landlines since the 1980s; mobile phone service continuously since about 2009)
  • Why would Verizon communicate to customers that the fair price for an upgrade to the iPhone 7 Plus is $ 200 when, now that the weekend is over and it is easy to buy stuff from Verizon again, they are going to try to sell people the same phone for $ 770?

How was this ever supposed to do anything other than annoy customers? Instead of trying to get every customer to call or come into a store during one weekend of madness, why not just offer a $ 150 discount on iPhones until the next Samsung comes out and then increase the discount to $ 250? Maybe T-Mobile grabs some customers who love to stand in line a day after eating turkey, but isn’t that better than having loyal customers who are frustrated?

I have to assume that I’m wrong about all of the above. Verizon is full of competent marketing people so they are presumably doing what is optimum (though the purchase of Yahoo suggests otherwise?). My question is therefore “Why is this artificial customer service charlie-foxtrot the optimum?”

[Note that I did finally manage to get an iPhone 7 Plus on order during the fourth phone call (Monday afternoon). It turns out to be a rather bizarre process in which first the full retail price is charged and then, three months later, after the customer goes online and jumps through some hoops and returns the trade-in phone, credits begin to be applied. The guy on the phone said that it wouldn’t be any simpler in the stores; the trade-ins have to be done via the web site.]

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Three Steps to a Trade a Collapse Lesson from Dryships DRYS and Qualcomm QCOM

I’m still surprised with how quickly Dryships (DRYS) surged from $ 5.00 to $ 100.00 but even more impressed with the even faster speed it collapsed from $ 100.00 back to $ 5.00.

Dryships (DRYS) serves as a perfect example of a euphoria pattern shows up on a stock’s chart when fear/greed (in this case extreme versions of both) capture trader’s interest.

It’s a common pattern and one you should learn as soon as possible – and here’s a great simple example of the pattern.

We’re seeing the entire birth-to-death cycle on the 5-min intraday chart – though the pattern works on any timeframe.

Let’s start with the black labels (1, 2, 3).

We have price emerge to life and captivate savvy traders early as a new uptrend emerges.

As buying pressure escalates, we see the first phase which appears as 1.  ADAPTIVE TRENDLINES.

This just means we re-draw trendlines as momentum and price slope higher.

Continue adapting/re-drawing your trendlines – and of course buying retracements – until you see price go vertical.

When price goes vertical, this is phase 2 (VERTICAL TRENDLINES).

Ironically this is the point where buyers are most euphoric/enthusiastic but it’s also the most dangerous phase.

It’s very difficult to short-sell into a rapidly rising market even if you “know” it’s about to collapse.

That’s where phase 3 enters, and it’s the VERTICAL TRENDLINE BREAK.

At this phase, price moves SIDEWAYS to break through the vertical trendline and it’s at this point that you must stop buying (if you’re still doing that).

While it’s still very risky – as price can lurch higher – short-sellers can put on initial positions here.

If the cycle continues, the next phase is indeed the collapse where fear instantly replaces greed.

It’s difficult to enter a collapsing market, even here as shown on the 5-min timeframe.

The main idea is that you study internalize this pattern which repeats when euphoria takes over.

Here’s a similar pattern – one of many examples – of Qualcomm (QCOM) during the 2000 Tech Bubble Burst:

This example is clearer and occurs over a longer period of time.

We see the initial rally (ironically from $ 10 to $ 100) as we had to adjust our trendlines in a similar manner.

The trend progressed with a stable trendline toward the end of 1999 but euphoria took over the traders in November.

From there, you can see two adjustments to the rising trendline as price finally went “vertical” in December.

Price broke through the vertical trendline in January 2000 which marked the end of euphoria and the beginning of the collapse.

Like DRYS, price initially went sideways before collapsing into a rapid descent.

Study these two patterns and scan prior stocks to find similar patterns – it repeats and you’ll be ready next time you see the cycle repeat in real time.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Long-term effects of short-term free cash (guaranteed minimum income experiments)

Americans have short memories. Implicit in nearly every proposal regarding a guaranteed minimum income that I’ve seen is that this has never been tried in the United States. “The Long-Term Effects of Cash Assistance” (Price and Song 2016), a paper by a Stanford graduate student and a Social Security Administration economist, provides a forgotten history lesson.

Are Americans able to sit on the sofa and watch TV faster than the government can print money? The answer turns out to be “yes.” The economists found that “treatment caused adults to earn an average of $ 1,800 less per year after the experiment ended. Treat adults were also 6.3 percentage points more likely to apply for disability benefits, but were not significant more likely to receive them, or to have died.”

The guaranteed income plan lasted only 3-5 years, depending on the group, but the effect of reduced income from work lasted for decades. Also, it turns out that if you give people the freedom that comes from a guaranteed stream of government cash, one thing that they choose is increased sexual variety: “A second important set of results were that the treatment decreased marital stability. Treatment caused black and white families to be approximately 40% more likely to split up.”

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

High Viscosity

As many energy shorts as I’ve got going (AMP, APC, DVN, EGN, and so forth) I’m keeping everything I’ve got two of crossed for good luck, since the big OPEC announcement is tomorrow morning. The past several days of trading don’t exactly express gobs of confidence in all these fine gentlemen voluntarily sacrificing oil revenue […]
Slope of Hope

Resilient Bulls Emini Fibonacci Grid Update Nov 29

I’m not sure the buyers (bulls) know the meaning of a “pullback” but here we are, near the highs again.

All joking aside, Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

There’s no major update today other than the smaller “abc” pullback toward the 2,200 target.

Buyers stepped in once again, not patient enough to let this market retrace even a small percentage.

Nevertheless, the plans remain the same – odds favor a pullback to lower levels while the “alternate” thesis calls for bullish “short-squeeze” plays above the 2,210 level.

Want these levels and additional strategy planning in advance each evening?

Get these levels in advance with in-depth planning and trading opportunities by joining the Daily Membership.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


Afraid to Trade.com Blog