Trading After Dark – A Taste of Life After Dark

A taste of tonight’s MATC sequence planning and execution (sans the live audio) …

From Don Miller Screen Share to Everyone: 08:02 PM
shorts covered 1225 … considering Ls into 2410

From Don Miller Screen Share to Everyone: 08:11 PM
reversed 1225
partial
will add closer to 1000 if we get it
3-5 Tick objective on these
75 contracts fwiw
don’t chase if you’re doing any of these
got +.75 to lighten

From Don Miller Screen Share to Everyone: 08:14 PM
Ramping up my ETH sizes in June
starting now
top goal of mine
1. Be present
2. Trade like you mean it
Caution to the market: You don’t want to be on the other side of my trades
June is going to be my best month evah … and it starts now

From Don Miller Screen Share to Everyone: 08:20 PM
Really prefer 1050
loaded for bear there
this is the ketchup … I want the burger
and then the bun
odd way to build a sandwich
but you get the pic
already trading better in ETH
than RTH mess
duh
The Trading Places guy didn’t have ETH back then to get back in the saddle
“Open those machines back up”
OK, well, they just did
beauty of MATC
(Morning after Trend Close)
Learn it
Trade it
Everyone else eating or sleeping
ideal would be to stop here, retrace toward 1050 for Shanghai, load up, delta turn up, and exit into 13 again
too much to ask?

probably
thus this trade
JIC
(just in case)
we don’t get optimal price
at least we eat

June motto: “Don’t fade the TAD Team”
Finally nailed a A+ trade exit on that short off 11-14
blind squirrel
broken clock
blind squirrel using a broken clock
? is how far does Nikkei take us
Got the +1

Goal for everyone:
Make June the BEST MONTH of your trading career
Mandatory

From Don Miller Screen Share to Everyone: 08:34 PM
+1.5

From Don Miller Screen Share to Everyone: 08:37 PM
isn’t this so much better than cowboy time??

From Don Miller Screen Share to Everyone: 08:39 PM
Again, note the time of the turn
8pm ET
Nikkei
Duh
2.5pts off the high
in mitt conditions
Duh
Delta confirming
Duh
The stuff no one wants to share with you

From Don Miller Screen Share to Everyone: 08:41 PM
Goal 200 cards 1.5 pts over and over and over

From Don Miller Screen Share to Everyone: 08:56 PM
Nikkei not as rangey as I’d like
want another bite of the apple

From Don Miller Screen Share to Everyone: 10:01 PM
anyone interested in a 10 approach?

From Don Miller Screen Share to Everyone: 10:04 PM
taking 1075

From Don Miller Screen Share to Everyone: 10:29 PM
breathe Don
there we go
exhaling
had 96 cards on

From Xxxxxx to Everyone: 10:35 PM
nailed it

Don Miller’s Trading Journal

Why is Trump bothering to withdraw from (or even mention) the Paris climate deal?

According to my Facebook friends, the world is ending yet again. A few months ago it was Jew-hatred, inspired by the Trumpenfuhrer (see “Donald Trump is threatening Jews?“) and manifested as phone calls to Jewish schools and community centers. Now that the perpetrators turn out to have been an Israeli Jew with an autodialer and an anti-Trump journalist here in the U.S., my friends have been posting like crazy about the dire planet-melting consequences of an American withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement. Here are some samples of their posts and shared posts:

As a parent, as a global citizen, as a human being, as a life form sharing this planet, I cannot fully describe how upset I will be if our ignorance-pandering President does what he is apparently likely to do and exits the most promising global compact of any sort in recent years.

Ugh. Ashamed of my country that made such blind idiocy possible.

Jackass. Pulling out: idiotic. Toying with it arrogantly, omnipotently, to keep the world in suspense: disgusting.

I’m embarrassed to admit that, though perhaps I once did know what this agreement was (and in 2015 even asked about it here, with Dumb climate change agreement question: how is it different than a diet pledge?), I’d completely forgotten about it until this Facebook frenzy. I’m trying to reeducate myself on what friends tell me (shout at me, actually) is an item of cataclysmic importance to the planet’s future. So far I’ve read “Q. & A.: The Paris Climate Accord” (nytimes):

Unlike its predecessor treaty, the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris deal was intended to be nonbinding, so that countries could tailor their climate plans to their domestic situations and alter them as circumstances changed. There are no penalties for falling short of declared targets. The hope was that, through peer pressure and diplomacy, these policies would be strengthened over time.

So this is like my daily visits to the gym that I conduct annually? And my strict all-organic steamed vegetable diet that I alter as circumstances change, e.g., when bacon is available?

While the current pledges would not prevent global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the threshold deemed unacceptably risky, there is some evidence that the Paris deal’s “soft diplomacy” is nudging countries toward greater action.

Countries are sending each other positive vibes?

Because the deal is nonbinding, there are no penalties if the United States pulls out.

Now I’m more confused that ever. If I go to the Big Texan with friends and chow down on a 72 oz. steak (never beat Molly Schuyler, though, sadly), how would they knew whether or not I am still officially adhering to my steamed vegetable diet?

This agreement seems hardly more than an excuse for a lot of highly paid bureaucrats to gather periodically in beautiful resorts at their respective taxpayers’ expense. So the only arguments that I could see for withdrawing are to save money and to save the planet by keeping these folks from flying around to meetings. But here in the U.S. the government spends $ 4 trillion per year. Cutting expenses at this level is not a Presidential matter.

So why would Donald Trump even bother to mention this nonbinding penalty-free agreement to make, essentially, New Year’s resolutions? And why do my friends think it makes a difference? If they’re interested in keeping up with things that might affect atmospheric CO2, why wouldn’t they be looking more at solar cell production and innovation, windmill design and installations, etc.?

 

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

What Would You Like?

I’ve got a reasonably-long list of “to do” items for my SlopeCharts product, but I’d like to throw the question out to the group as to the kinds of technical studies or features any of you would like to see. Please just say what you want in the comment section or, just as useful, click Like […]
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The Low Before The High?

NDX retraced today without hitting my channel resistance trendlines in the 5830 area. My working assumption is that NDX will test those levels tomorrow or Friday. NDX 60min chart RUT is getting close to some serious support levels. RUT daily chart: The SPX low this morning was at the 50 hour MA. A red close […]
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Four Stock Market Index Checkup on May 31 Pullback

If you’re only looking at one of the four main US Equity Indexes, you might be missing something right now.

On the pullback from the all-time highs in the stock market, which index is the weakest right now?

Let’s dust off our Quad-Index Grid and take a look:

The top left shows the popular @ES or S&P 500 index (all are futures contracts) alongside the @YM Dow Mini.

These look the most similar in terms of price highs/lows and structure.

Both took a dive in mid-May and then violently recovered with a non-stop rally to new all-time highs.

Beneath these two similar indexes are the somewhat dissimilar @NQ NASDAQ and @TF Russell 2000 index.

The NASDAQ has been the strongest index lately with the heavy emphasis on strong technology names.

However, the Russell 2000 is the laggard of the group, having failed to make a new high as it continues an intraday downtrend (while all three other indexes charged to new highs).

The pullback has ben more severe and taken price back toward the May “collapse” lows near 1,355 in the @TF.

The main point:  While the S&P 500 and Dow Jones paint a similar picture on the pullback, the NASDAQ is stronger (relative strength) while the Russell is a clear laggard (relative weakness).

If you believe the market is about to rally, focus on the NASDAQ long.  If you think it’s about to fall, consider trading the Russell short.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

SMBU’s Options Tribe Webinar: Dan Passarelli of Markettaker.com: Finding Untapped Sources of Income in the Options Market

Most traders are missing opportunities to generate income in their options trading opportunities. This week Dan Passarelli, former Chicago Board Options Exchange trader, makes his debut appearance on the Options Tribe explaining how he finds income generating option trades that most traders miss. He’ll show you, step by step which stocks make for superior income trades and which to avoid, how to increase your probability of success (and know your odds of producing a winning trade), and the three biggest mistakes that traders make when screening for income trades. Read more […]
SMB Capital

Our Pullback Plan is in Motion Emini Update May 31

We were planning a pullback and so far, the market is delivering right on schedule.

Here’s your short-term Emini Fibonacci Retracement Grid and Target Levels:

The non-stop bull market hit a snag this morning, and we were planning for this as seen in last Friday’s “Planning a Pullback in the Emini.”

Here it is – at least an initial pullback in price.

Note the short-term Fibonacci Levels which include the simple 2,400 overlap and then the 2,390 level beneath it.

Today gave us a steep drop from the high in an environment where the risk of a pullback is high.

Will the pullback to 2,400 be “all we get” in this raging bull market?  Follow along and trade accordingly.

If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Chelsea Clinton: it is sometimes funny to joke about killing people?

“Chelsea Clinton: Kathy Griffin’s Trump-beheading photo ‘vile and wrong’” quotes Chelsea Clinton as saying “It is never funny to joke about killing the president.”

Let’s accept this as true. But isn’t the necessary implication that it is at least sometimes funny to joke about killing people who are not the president? When are those occasions? And why would it be funnier to imagine the death of a non-president versus imagining the death of a president?

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

A Bearish Breakdown Busts the Bullish Reversal in KORS

Bulls (buyers) stepped into a Trap last week as Michael Kors (KORS) broke down from support.

Here’s the Trap and a longer-term perspective on how far this once strong stock has fallen:

$ 36.00 per share looked like a promising support level complete with positive divergences.

A breakout above the $ 38.00 level – the falling 50 day EMA – was a potential (aggressive) bullish breakout and trend reversal entry.

However, price collapsed quickly back under the 20 and 50 day EMAs, triggering stops and setting up something more ominous.

A multi-day sell-swing took price to new lows and the recent rally to $ 38.00 again set up another short-sell trade.

We see the gap-down on earnings completing this bearish trade, validating the Bull Trap, and collapsing price to new multi-year lows on high volume.

Here’s the Weekly Chart to give us the perspective of what went wrong and what it means now:

The last time KORS was at the $ 32.00 level was in early 2012 – five years ago.

Note how important the $ 34.00 per share was as a critical support/bullish reversal level.

Today history did not repeat and instead shares slid to new lows, continuing the downtrend in motion.

Trends – once established – have greater odds of continuing rather than reversing.

That’s the core principle at work as the distribution – and downtrend continues – for KORS.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Obama’s $400,000 Wall Street speech against my 2008 prediction

In October 2008 I wrote “Will Obama be a friend to the poor once in office? Would you?“. Excerpts:

Barack Obama’s campaign has been damaged to some extent by quotes from his days as a community organizer. He sounded like a socialist back then. …

Suppose that Barack Obama arrives in the White House and reminds himself that he still has about 40 years to live, only 8 of which will be spent as President. Those 32 post-presidential years could be spent being celebrated by welfare recipients or as the guest of Fortune 500 CEOs. Those 32 post-presidential years could be spent living on a government pension or as billionaire.

My prediction that Obama will win stands, though I fear that my 5 percent margin of victory may be understated now that the Republicans have nominated a candidate who is 90 percent dead. My new prediction is that Obama will be the friendliest president ever to the rich and powerful and that Obama will be the richest person ever to have been president.

Now it seems that Obama is “speaking truth to power” at $ 400,000 per hour (USA Today).

What do readers think? Did I call this one correctly? Stepping back and taking the long view, was Obama reasonably friendly to the one-percenters (including those in the health care industry!) during his Presidency?

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Medical School 2020, Year 1, Week 32

Eye week started off with a two-hour dissection of the orbit (cavity of the eyeball). We used bone chisels to open the orbit and remove an eyeball by cutting the various ligaments and nerves anchoring it to the skull and brain. A human eyeball feels squishy but not delicate.

The eye comprises several layers: eyelid, cornea/sclera, iris, lens, retina, sclera (again). The eye lids contain conjunctiva epithelia which is continuous with the white outer sclera of the eyeball. The sclera is a white, fibrous connective tissue. The sclera merges with the cornea, a thin transparent convex protrusion that provides much of the optic refractive index of the eye. Behind the cornea is a cavity filled with aqueous humor, a watery secretion. The iris (colored portion of eye) is actually a muscle with radial and circular fibers that control the size of the pupil. The pupil is literally a hole in front of the lens. Light hits the cornea, enters the anterior (front) chamber, traverses through the pupil into the posterior chamber, and hits the lens to be focused on the retina, which is at the back of the vitreous chamber. Classmates, including myself, tended to hear the term “posterior chamber” (in front of the lens) and erroneously identify the much larger vitreous chamber (behind the lens).

Most of my anatomy group left early, but one classmate and I stayed to open the eyeball. We cut open the sclera with a scalpel and held the lens in our hands. It felt like a marble with an opaque yellowish tint. Several cadavers had artificial lenses, which felt surprisingly similar. The vitreous humor, inside the vitreous chamber, felt gelatinous. The retina looked like a white transparent sheet, except for a small protrusion on the medial aspect (closer to the nose) of the retina. This was the optic disk, where nerve fibers merge to exit the eye and the retinal artery enters the eye to supply the retinal layers with blood. The retina peeled off with forceps. We put the eye back together and placed it back in the orbit.

The retina, except at the optic disk, contains photosensitive compounds that transduce light into electrical signals. Rods, cells with the pigment rhodopsin, are sensitive to small amounts of light (as small as a single photon) and line most of the retina. Cones, cells with different photopigments excite depending on the specific wavelength (color), require larger amounts of delivered energy to activate. The density of photosensitive cells increase in an area of the macula with the highest density of cones in the fovea. Rods are important for night vision, while cones enable us to see color and detail.

A student asked, “What is the resolution of the eye?” Doctor J said this is hard to define. Each eye has 150 million photosensitive cells (rods and cones) [compare to 100 megapixels for the highest-resolution cameras circa 2017]. These signals converge onto 1.2 million ganglion cells that transmit the information via the optic nerve to the brain. Most of these ganglion cells originate from the fovea, a region the size of 1.5 mm. Image details are integrated by the primary visual cortex and visual association cortex. If you’re looking for something small at night, try scanning with your peripheral vision because the density of rods is higher outside of the fovea.

Our eyes have six extraocular muscles that provide the extraordinary range of motion of the eye. To support binocular vision and depth perception, the eyes have elaborate mechanisms to maintain foveation through the horizontal and vertical gaze centers in the brainstem. Strabismus (“cross eye”) is a misalignment of each eye causing an image to hit different parts of each retina. Strabismus causes diplopia (seeing double). Compression of one of the nerves that innervates these extraocular muscles can lead to diplopia when they gaze a certain direction.

Our patient case: George, 74-year-old white male with hypertension and hypercholesterolemia presents for blurry vision. An eye exam reveals intact extraocular muscles with decreased visual acuity. Inspection of the macula with an ophthalmoscope reveals the characteristic geometry of drusen (lipid deposits in the choroid vascular region deep to the photopigment layer).He is immediately referred to an ophthalmologist for Age-associated Macular Degeneration (AMD).

[AMD is the leading cause of vision loss for individuals, with white Americans being at high risk starting around age 65. Fifteen percent of white Americans over age 80 have AMD (https://nei.nih.gov/eyedata/amd). Type-A Anita muttered “white privilege” when we went over a clinical trial of a drug to treat AMD. Reflecting the higher prevalence among whites, the study had 93-percent white enrollment.]

The ophthalmologist performed an Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT), shooting low energy light (infrared) into George’s retina to create beautiful micron-resolution images of the retinal layers. The study revealed detachment of the macula due to wet AMD. The choroid plexus (blood vessels on the exterior of the retina that supplies the pigmented cells) began to grow into the photopigment layers causing microhemorrhages. George was fortunate to get this diagnosed before his whole macula became detached.

Every six weeks, George goes to his ophthalmologist for a shot of Bevacizumab (Avastin), which contains antibodies against vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF). This drug is injected into his vitreous chamber to prevent the growth of the invading blood vessels. “These drugs have saved my vision. I am able to drive, read, really do everything I want to do.” George was going in this week to get his shot before departing on a cruise next week.

“VEGF treatment has really been a godsend,” explained the ophthalmologist. “It prolongs patients’ vision for years. For the unfortunate few who do not respond, there are some other options.” One was a telescope implant to replace the lens with a magnifying telescope that focuses an image on a different part of the macula that is healthy. Students dubbed this “going bionic”. A more drastic treatment option is macular rotation. Surgeons detach the retina and rotate is to have a new, more healthy vascular choroid plexus.

A student asked about the difference between Avastin, originally developed as a treatment for colon cancer, and Lucentis. Lucentis, FDA-approved to treat wet AMD, is a cleaved form of the anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody Avastin, at roughly 1/40th of the dosage used for colon cancer patients. Lucentis may be able to penetrate deeper into the retinal layers because of the antibody’s lower molecular weight. Lucentis costs $ 2,000 per dose, whereas the amount of Avastin necessary for wet AMD therapy costs $ 50. The ophthalmologist explained he always starts with off-label Avastin. “I have only anecdotal evidence that a few of my patients respond better to Lucentis.” [This makes sense given that the drugs are essentially chemically identical.] Genentech makes both Avastin and Lucentis. “Why would the company fund a multi-million dollar trial to approve a drug that costs less?” If all Medicare patients were prescribed Avastin instead of Lucentis, Medicare Part B is estimated to save $ 18 billion and patients save nearly $ 5 billion over a 10-year period (http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/33/6/931.abstract).

That evening, I spoke with some fourth-year medical students going into surgery about the match process. I learned that many general surgery (“Gen Surg”) residencies are trending towards the “5 + 2” option. Gen Surg residencies had typically been five years. After residency, you could then get a job, or apply to a 1-2 year fellowship (e.g., cardiothoracic, vascular, etc.). In order to make graduates more competitive when applying for fellowships, some prestigious surgery residencies are now requiring two years of research in the middle, hoping that the publication record will appeal to fellowship admissions committees. Thus what had been 4 years of medical school, plus 5 years of residency, plus up to 2 years of fellowship (11 years) might now turn into a 13-year training process.

An attending repeated his wish (see Week 8) that regulations would allow him to teach us more. “LCME caps the number of formal class hours at about 26-28. There just isn’t enough time to do extra projects, especially if they do not advance LCME-designated areas.” He told administration that he would even volunteer his time for optional events. “Administration responded by saying, ‘Students would complain that they feel obligated to go…’ Don’t we have capitalism? Instead of stooping to the lowest denominator, you work harder, get better, and make more money.”

At lunch, Type-A Anita lamented the loss of Obama. Several students agreed, but added, “Trump’s election is actually a blessing. Now we have unprecedented activism against racism and sexism. In the long run this will be good.” Type-A Anita agreed, “But honestly, if we blow up the world?” They ended by saying how much they missed Obama’s dogs and looking at a Pinterest account of Merkel Faces.

Statistics for the week… Study: 10 hours. Sleep: 7 hours/night; Fun: 1 night. Example fun: Afternoon drinks at recently opened brewery. There must be six new breweries planning to open by the end of the year.

More: http://fifthchance.com/MedicalSchool2020

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

The One Red that Matters

I’m going to make this post rather fast for one reason: squirrels. You see, the squirrels around town get up at a very specific time, and once they are up and about, it’s all over for me and my dog walk. You’ve never had your arms yanked off quite so swiftly as when a bunch […]
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