The Virgin Suicides

“How ya doing? Your energy level OK? Everyone all right?” Our children, treading water in Trunk Bay just as I was, signalled to me that they were fine. Unlike their doughy father, my beloved children are athletic and strong, and they have the kind of stamina that makes a lengthy snorkeling adventure a pleasure. Like […]
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A Second Gap and Crap for the Emini at the Highs July 31

While today started similarly to July 27th’s “Gap and Collapse,” today we’re seeing a rally off support instead of a violent, vicious engulfing session.

Let’s update our levels and plans for the day.

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

While we had a bullish gap up, the bears took their swipe as price returned within a very short-term Fibonacci Grid.

Our intraday low is the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the July 27th swing.

We’re monitoring the mini-Fib range between 2,466 and 2,472 and the bullish breakout swing above it or bearish breakdown back toward 2,462 at least.

As today plays out, focus on these levels and the ping-pong play between them.

If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”

Afraid to Blog

US Dollar Falls to Key Target Make or Break Support Price July 31

If you’ve been following the US Dollar Index, you may have been surprised with how rapidly price collapsed from the 100 level toward the current major support target of 92.

We’ve been expecting and trading this development in the membership, though it’s occurred much faster than expected, yet here we are at our longer-term price target.

What is it and what’s the quick plan from here?  Let’s take a look.

US Dollar Index DX Support Fibonacci

With the exception of a FAILED BREAKOUT and BULL TRAP above the 100 level, the Dollar remained within a multi-year sideways trading range or rectangle price pattern between 92.00 (where we are now) and the 100 level (where we were only a few months ago).

Price traveled the bearish pathway in a single swing without any stable retracement along the way (compare the prior two bearish pathways in early 2015 and 2016).

We have THREE factors at a confluence support level:

  • The 50% Fibonacci Retracement
  • The rising 200 week Simple Moving Average (red)
  • and of course The Prior Price Support/Reversal Level

As traders, we never know what will happen but instead plan dominant (expected) and alternate (unexpected) theses and then build our trades from there (often playing the departure from a key price level).

We’ll label the dominant thesis as a “Support Bounce” play up away from 92 to play back toward 94.50 and higher and thus hold out for the alternate “Bearish Breakdown” play on a trigger-break beneath 92.00 (targeting 90.00).

Get your trades and plans ready for what happens next!

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”

Afraid to Blog

The Three Phase Trend Trading Lesson from Under Armour UAA

Under Armour (UAA) is currently in a Distribution and Mark-Down phase, but how did we get here and why is this stock a textbook example of the Life Cycle of a Stock Movement from Accumulation to Distribution?

Let’s take a look at where we are and how price got here:

UAA Under Armour Accumulation Distribution Realization

The Founding Fathers of Technical Analysis – including Charles Dow, Ralph Elliott, Richard Wyckoff – often discuss how price (in a trend) moves in phases or periods.

The simplest way to describe the progression is to begin in an Accumulation Phase, move into Realization, and then progress through Distribution.

Richard Wyckoff added additional details to the progression and labeled a “Mark-Up” and “Mark-Down” phase during Realization and Distribution.

Nevertheless, this post isn’t meant to describe all three phases in detail, but to show how Under Armour (UAA) moved through these core concepts in ideal fashion.

Note the slow rise during Accumulation (purple) that moved to a bullish breakout and increased “angle of ascent” during Realization/Mark-Up.

From there, negative divergences set in and price BROKE under the rising (steeper) trendline to mark a final transition into Distribution into Mark-Down.

We’re in the Mark-Down phase with price hovering at the $ 20.00 per share level, a key support pivot that has developed in 2017.

The general plan is to avoid stocks believed to be in Accumulation, focus on buying pullbacks or breakouts of stocks in the rising Realization/Mark-Up phase, and either avoiding – or aggressively short-selling (advanced/experienced traders only) a stock falling in a Distribution period.

Continue studying the three phase life cycle in UAA for additional helpful insights.


Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to

Follow Corey on Twitter:

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”

Afraid to Blog

Life in my personal sanctimony city

Measured by support for the Democrats, Boston certainly qualifies as a Sanctimony City. How are we doing on the issues on which we consider ourselves superior to the benighted Fox News viewers in the Deplorable Red States?

“50 years later, Metco’s dream is still unanswered” (Boston Globe) says that sorting children by skin color and then busing some of the “non-white” ones out to the mostly-white suburbs hasn’t worked as well as hoped:

Fifty years after Massachusetts launched an ambitious voluntary school desegregation initiative, the yawning social disparities and tensions the plan aimed to ease remain — and painful incidents persist.

But when some 3,300 Metco students walk into those suburban schools, they encounter student peers who are predominantly white, and teachers and administrators who are overwhelmingly so, state data show. There are no requirements for the 37 suburban districts to diversify their teaching or administrative ranks. And the state’s Metco rules, which mostly cover reimbursement for the suburban districts, have long been silent about recommending or requiring training that would help teachers better understand cultural differences and help make Metco students feel more welcome.

The good news is that learning a third as much as a student in Finland can qualify an American as a “superachiever”:

Despite these hurdles, Metco students, who often spend hours each day bused to and from school, tend to be superachievers. State data show they score higher on state MCAS exams than their counterparts in Boston and are significantly more likely to graduate from high school and attend college. “The educational resources are great,” said Sammi Chen, who graduated last month from Lincoln-Sudbury and expects to major in biochemistry and molecular biology at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.

[Chen? How does someone with a Chinese last name qualify for a program that starts with skin color sorting? It turns out that Asians are considered to “non-white,” though in a lot of the suburbs that participate in Metco there are now a lot of local Asians.]

Being surrounded by well-meaning Hillary-supporters can be annoying:

Day, who lives in Lincoln, said he didn’t feel like an outsider until he hit high school, where he said some teachers and students assumed he was a Metco student bused from Boston because he is black. …  Day said teachers at the high school would sometimes ask if he needed financial assistance to go on a field trip because they assumed his family couldn’t afford it. … he asked that the caption under his yearbook picture reflect that. “I do not feel safe at this school,” it reads.

The Millionaires for Obama in my neighborhood were discussing this article on a listserv (that’s how old we are here!):

The elementary school still has a problem even if it is “substantially more integrated”. All one has to do is walk down the hall any given morning before school starts and you can see & hear the kids of color being reprimanded more harshly than the other kids for speaking too loudly or to sit down on the benches.

Last year I met a young woman of color who attended LS… Her experience was of a school that oozed with entitlement and white privilege.

I refrained from trying to cheer them up with the following response:

At least the inner-city kids who come out here are learning about transportation engineering. Now they know that transporting a 110 lb. person and a pair of yoga pants a distance of 3 miles over smooth pavement requires a 6,000 lb. vehicle.

What about when these kids graduate from their bureaucratically integrated schools and go to work? The good news is that they can become infinitely rich by starting a company and employing only female workers. “Boston Has Eliminated Sexism in the Workplace. Right?” (Boston Magazine) says “women here [in the Boston area] are actually being paid 77 cents for every dollar earned by a man,” which is, according to the article, a larger disparity than in the U.S. as a whole. This opportunity will be shut down if people listen to the geniuses behind Enron: “perhaps the most convincing argument comes from a McKinsey & Company study, which showed Massachusetts would receive a jaw-dropping 12 percent bump in GDP if it achieved gender parity in the workplace.”

It isn’t on their web site, but the August 2017 issue carries an interview with 85-year-old Harvey Mansfield, the only “conservative” left at Harvard. You can see why universities want to get rid of old people. His explanation for why Harvard has so much grade inflation: “the early 70s. When black students arrived, they benefited from great good will, which is the passion behind affirmative action. … a professor wasn’t going to give a black student a C, so … he couldn’t give them to white students either.” Are parents getting good value for paying Harvard prices? “the curriculum is a mess. If you look at a typical Harvard transcript, you see courses all over the place. Often on small subjects or policy questions, instead of meat and potatoes: history, economics, philosophy. … there are a whole lot of [gut] courses and it’s easy to waste your money…”

At least the students can party, Missoula-style, right? Professor Mansfield says “the sexual scene [at Harvard] is a mess. … ‘sexual adventure,’ if I can put it that way, is expected, even though it doesn’t always materialize. And when it does materialize, it can often be misadventure. … There’s no backing from the faculty, from the mores, from the churches, from reality, to a woman’s ability to say no. It much more depends on her courage and her good sense than used to be the case.” (Note that “saying no” may not make good economic sense; collecting child support in Massachusetts can be worth more than 3X the median after-tax income of an Ivy League graduate.)

What’s the predictive power of being a professor of Government at Harvard? No better than mine! In response to “Did you expect Trump to win?” Mansfield replies “I didn’t see him coming. I kept thinking he would lose.”

How is Harvard doing going forward? Answering a question about Harvard’s president, Mansfield says “she hasn’t done anything … to make [Harvard] offer a more demanding education, and she has participated in this slow decline from veritas to change. Our motto is truth, but we now interpret that as adjusting to the changes of society. That is an essentially passive goal, which is conformist.” Mansfield still likes the school, though: “The students are great, the faculty is okay, and the administration is about average.”

So… here we are feeling superior to the rest of the U.S. with no data to support our beliefs!

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Another Reversal

Home sweet home! I got back at midnight last night, and after getting to sleep, I naturally got my standard 5 a.m. wake-up call from the canines. I also managed to put my plane flight to good use with an epic long post, which I’ll publish this afternoon. The NQ, having been down double digits […]
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Weekly Market Recap Jul 30, 2017

Another week like so many others in 2017. Little volatility, little movement – even with a slew of big name earnings. This certainly is a strange atmosphere just from the lack of volatility over many many months alone. However companies seem to be doing well enough:
With slightly more than half of S&P 500 components having reported, 73% are turning in better-than-expected earnings and…

Read the full article at

Stock Trading To Go

Airborne Access

Hello, Slopers, from your airborne host. I am seven miles above the planet again, heading back to my beloved Palo Alto after a week-long vacation. It was a successful trip – – silver medal in hand, and plenty of good memories – – but, rut-loving creature that I am, I am eager to get back […]
Slope of Hope

Monthly divorce round-up from the neighbors

A round-up of divorce attitudes from the neighborhood (rich Boston suburb)…

“She had a fresh pedicure and manicure and looked fantastic,” said one mom about a recent divorce plaintiff, encountered at the supermarket. “She didn’t have any of her kids with her.” (The plaintiff sued her husband due to an expressed desire to “protect the children” from what the defendant’s “addiction issues” (apparently not severe enough to prevent him from bringing home a physician’s paycheck every two weeks). Now the kids are fully protected by being parked unsupervised with the addict every other weekend. [Also, apparently nothing is better for an adult’s mood than to be completely-off-the-child-care-hook roughly 30 percent of the time (while still being paid to provide child care). See also Newsweek for a report on a recent Harvard Business School study that found that leisure time was the key to happiness.]

“He would have had a good reason to divorce her,” said a 60-year-old married-with-kids friend regarding a former colleague, a Manhattan-based retired financial services industry executive (he didn’t know whether the wife or the husband was the plaintiff, only that his friend was no longer married). “She was bipolar.” In other words, the “in sickness and health” part of the marriage vows didn’t apply, in his view, given the wife’s mental illness. Now the man is enjoying the NY dating scene, mostly with divorcees in their 40s, though he says “all the women are lying about their age” so it is tough to establish a precise age.

An Arab immigrant renting a neighbor’s mother-in-law apartment explained that he and his wife, also an Arab immigrant, had started a business and purchased a house together. The wife sued him and obtained the business, the house, and the kids down at the Middlesex Family Court (our statistical study of what happens there). Asserting “I am afraid of him,” she got a restraining order against her defendant. Among other things, this keeps him from saying anything regarding their mother to the children, who are over 18 (they can yield child support profits through age 23 in Massachusetts and are therefore still a fit subject for family court litigation). He endures a lot of hassle whenever he returns through U.S. immigration due to the fact that the border agents find a red flag in his record from the restraining order.

From a woman who apparently followed her heart rather than optimizing her life and reproduction to align with Massachusetts family law: “Recently divorced mom, 14 yo son, and a 10 yo daughter in need affordable rental, 2-3 BR ASAP. Would be willing to help with some of the maintenance.” (Safe to assume 5 years of happiness, 10 years of annoyance/irritation, and, going forward, decades of financial struggle?)

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Financial Formations

I wanted to share three of my existing positions with you that are in the financial sector. First is Sallie Mae, known these days as SLM Corporation. It had a huge topping formation, plunged during the financial crisis, and spent years climbing its way back up to its failure point (red line). Now that we’re […]
Slope of Hope