Like any year, 2014 has seen its share of ups and downs in the market (more ups than downs, actually), so I thought it’d be interesting to compare the up and down days for the S&P 500 so far in 2014.
If anything, it’s a different way to see price and study the character of the market.
Let’s start with a special look at just the up-days that have taken place so far in 2014:
While there’s dozens of methods to view charts, you’ve likely never seen a “up-day only” chart!
Nevertheless, we can look at the frequency (number of up-days in a row) and size of the up-days in 2014.
Specifically, there have been 115 up-days so far in 2014 (out of 203 days), which means that 57% of days in 2014 have been positive.
Taken together, the Average of all up-days in 2014 is 9.3 points in the S&P 500 with a Standard Deviation of 7.40.
Let’s compare that to the down-days in the S&P 500 so far in 2014:
In terms of down-days, there have been 88 down-days so far in 2014 (out of 203 days), which means that 43% of days in 2014 have been negative.
The Average of all down-days in 2014 is higher at -11 points with a Standard Deviation of 10.53 points.
It shouldn’t necessarily be surprising that down-days report a higher average and standard deviation.
Price tends to be more volatile – as we saw through October – when the index falls.
We can even see above that one-day sell events are more visually larger than one-day buy events.
Price more commonly falls faster than it rises.
We also see “holes” on the sell-chart which is where price traded higher consecutive sessions to the upside.
The theme so far in 2014 involves the cluster of smaller, often consecutive up-days against the backdrop of larger, less consecutive down-days.
This type of comparison chart can be helpful for spotting patterns and themes as they emerge and shift over time as trend and volatility also change in the market.
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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT
Afraid to Trade.com
Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade