My 2015 Top 10 Biggest Winner and Loser Trades

This is the first post of two that I will be doing as part of my annual year-end portfolio reflection. Feel free to see my 2015 results, 2014, 2013, etc.

As a huge advocate of post trade analysis, taking the time to look back over every trade made throughout the year is critical to long term success.

Without question, 2015 for me was one of the toughest years of trading in some years.

The…

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Macro Week in Review/Preview December 31, 2015

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested that heading into another holiday shortened week, and one that should prove to be very light on everything the equity markets have, saw equities rebounding but still looking vulnerable, especially the SPY. Elsewhere looked for Gold to consolidate in its downtrend while Crude Oil continued a bounce in its downtrend. The US Dollar Index looked to be weaker short term in consolidation while US Treasuries consolidated.

The Shanghai Composite looked to continue consolidation with an upward bias while Emerging Markets bounced in their consolidation of the downward move. Volatility looked to remain subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts agreed with that in the short term with the IWM looking the strongest. In the intermediate term the SPY looked weakest while the IWM and QQQ continued the sideways churn.

The week played out with Gold probing lower in its consolidation range while the bounce in Crude Oil stalled and it reversed lower. The US Dollar drifted lower while Treasuries met resistance and pulled back. The Shanghai Composite moved sideways in consolidation while Emerging Markets turned back lower in consolidation.

Volatility bounced but stayed in the normal range. The Equity Index ETF’s started the week well making a short term higher high, but gave back most or all of the gains as the week and year closed out. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

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Market Recap Dec 31, 2015

Indexes closed down the year in feeble fashion with a moderate gap down to open, bulls trying to do some buying mid day, but another significant round of selling to close the session. The S&P 500 fell 0.94% and the NASDAQ 1.15% – a bit surprising as you expected “them” to close the S&P 500 up for the year for window dressing purposes. Instead the S&P 500 fell less than 1% for the…

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Flat but Not Boring Year for 2015 SP500

If the 2,060 level for the S&P 500 seems familiar for you, that’s because it is.  We’ve been here before – a lot.

Check out my most recent post “Gotta Watch this Important Trendline for the S&P 500” for a little background.

Let’s chart the 2015 S&P 500 performance and note how the market traveled in a circle all year.

The S&P 500 opened January 2, 2015 at 2,058 and mid-day December 31st it trades at the same price level.

That’s not to say the market was ‘flat’ all year – we had an upward consolidation drift that gave way to a collapse in August.

Here’s a couple reference posts to study from this period:

“S&P 500 Color Structure Pinpoints Key Areas for You”

“The Thrilling Trading Range of 2015 Continues”

The breakout and collapse thrust price under 1,900 only to rally sharply back to the highs.

Note the correct prediction I made in the video analysis comparing 2015 with the same pattern in 2011 (post).

In fact, 2011 was a great analog for planning the remainder of 2015 after the crash.

For those interested (I certainly am), here’s a direct comparison with 2011 using the same chart frame:

Nevertheless, price recovered back toward the highs and then ended bearishly from November into December.

However, the famous “Santa Claus” Rally materialized the week of Christmas, right on schedule (post).

As we turn the page to 2016, keep the most recent performance – and price levels (2,060) – in mind.

The next tradable “swing” of the market will likely be another departure away from 2,060.

Be safe and have a wonderful New Year!  Prosperity to you and your family in 2016 and beyond.

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How this week’s Top 10 performed, December 31, 2015

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Every month following Options Expiration I post performance metrics of the Dragonfly Capital Model Portfolio. This includes all trades that I entered over time. What it does not include is the one’s I miss for whatever reason (getting lunch, going to the bathroom, etc….). So each week I post the performance of the stocks that were given to subscribers the previous Sunday. All performance is measured against the plan given to subscribers. That is not reflected in the index ETF performance, which there is no stop loss. Here is this week’s:

12-31-2015 4-08-29 PM

Equal Weighted Investment Yield assumes a buy at 1/10 portfolio size for each stock that triggers and accounts for stop loss triggers in the trade plan presented to subscribers (i.e. your performance would be better). Short position performance is calculated opposite of security movement. If the security is labeled no trigger than our trade plan would not have executed a trade (i.e. you would have had no position).

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It’s not too late for Christmas! Contact me at greg@dragonflycap.com and use the code SANTA in the message to get either an annual subscription for $ 556 (10% off) or an annual subscription plus my book signed for $ 600.

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

Get my ebook, Markets for 2015 and Beyond, a long term forecast with all proceeds going to charity.

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Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through November 2015 and sign up here

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Market Recap Dec 30, 2015

We entered the day relatively overbought on the short term scale so it was no surprise to see a small gap down. The market was exceedingly quiet all session until some fireworks in the last 20 minutes when a bunch of sell orders walked in. To that end the S&P 500 fell 0.72% and the NASDAQ 0.82%. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the year so it will be interesting to see if the S&P…

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Stock Trading To Go

Market Recap Dec 29, 2015

We usually get a positive skew around the Christmas holiday but this year has been even more positive than usual. We’ve seen many gap ups the past 2 weeks, very familiar to many of the “V shaped” rallies of the past 3-4 years when almost all the action comes overnight and then lesser movement during the actual trading day. There were a few sessions like this early last week and again today. …

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Market Recap Dec 28, 2015

Welcome back.

Indexes gapped down a bit Monday after a week of gapping up going into Christmas but the drop was modest. Buyers came in late in the day to limit losses and at the close the S&P 500 fell 0.22% while the NASDAQ dropped 0.15%. The S&P 500 is trying to reverse a small loss for the year while the NASDAQ is trying to hold onto a small gain. Economic data will be sparse…

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Stock Trading To Go

Top Trade Ideas for the Week December 28, 2015: Bonus Idea

Written By: DragonFly Capital

1367463605551

Here is your Bonus Idea with links to the full Top Ten:

United Technologies, $ UTX, has its hands in many complex systems and companies in the aerospace industry. It makes things that fly but its stock certainly has not been doing that lately. Since June it had lost nearly 30% of its value before bouncing in October. That bounce found resistance just above the round number 100 at 101 and pulled back again.

The last pullback retraced 61.8% of the bounce and then turned back higher last week. This formed a higher low. A positive for the stock. The rounded bottom on the pullback is also a good signal. The stock has support for a move higher from the positive and bullish momentum indicators. The RSI is moving into the bullish zone as it rises while the MACD is crossed up and rising.

There is resistance above at 98.40 and 101 followed by 104.40 and a gap to fill to 109.40. Support lower comes at 92.30 and 90.90. Short interest is moderate at 6.1% and the company is expected to report earnings next on January 27th.

Checking the options chains reveals weekly chains. The December 31 Expiry has the highest open interest at the 95 and 100 strikes on the call side. The January monthly options show very large open interest at the 85 put strike and then similar but smaller by a factor of 2 size at each of the 90, 95, 97.5, 100 and 105 strikes. Moving to the January 29th expiry, beyond earnings, sees little open interest at this point. Finally in February monthly options the open interest is much large on the call side and from 95 to 105.

United Technologies, Ticker: $ UTX
utx

Trade Idea 1: Buy the stock now (over 95) with a stop at 92.
A straight stock trade.

Trade Idea 2: Buy the stock now with a January 29 Expiry 94/88 Put Spread, 100 Covered Call Collar (38 cents).
Adding protection through earnings with a collar to the stock trade.

Trade Idea 3: Buy the January 96.5/100 Call Spread ($ 1.10).
A defined risk way to participate in upside.

Trade Idea 4: Buy the January 96.5/97.5 Call Spread (57 cents) and sell the January 94 Put (62 cents) for a 5 cent credit.
A short term leveraged trade for those comfortable owning the stock at 94.

Trade Idea 5: Buy the January/January 29 Expiry 97.5 Call Calendar (69 cents).
A trade for upside on earnings but not before January monthly expiry.

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After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into another holiday shortened week, and one that should prove to be very light on everything, sees the equity markets have rebounded but are still looking vulnerable, especially the SPY.

Elsewhere look for Gold to consolidate in its downtrend while Crude Oil continues a bounce in its downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to be weaker short term in consolidation while US Treasuries consolidate. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue consolidation with an upward bias while Emerging Markets bounce in their consolidation of the downward move.

Volatility looks to remain Subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts agree with that in the short term with the IWM looking the strongest. In the intermediate term the SPY looks weakest while the IWM and QQQ continue the sideways churn. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

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Contact me at greg@dragonflycap.com and use the code SANTA in the message to get either an annual subscription for $ 556 (10% off) or an annual subscription plus my book signed for $ 600.

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Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through December 2015 and sign up here

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Top Trade Ideas for the Week of December 28, 2015: The Rest

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Here are the Rest of the Top 10:

Agilent Technologies, Ticker: $ A
a

Agilent Technologies, $ A, pulled back from a high in April in a couple of steps, culminating in a bottom with the market in August and into September. Since then it has risen in a couple of steps as well and is now looking to start a third. The RSI is in the bullish zone and rising while the MACD is about to cross up, bullish signals. Look for continuation to participate.

BorgWarner, Ticker: $ BWA
bwa

BorgWarner, $ BWA, had a steady falling trend out of consolidation from July to a bottom in September. Since then it has consolidated again and is pressing towards a possible reversal higher. The RSI is pushing against the bullish zone while the MACD is rising. Look for a break of resistance to participate.

Charles River Laboratories, Ticker: $ CRL
crl

Charles River Laboratories, $ CRL, had a series of cascading steps lower from April to October. But since that bottom it has done nothing but go up. It starts the week back at prior resistance. The RSI is in the bullish zone while the MACD is turning back up, both supporting a continued push higher. Look for a break over resistance to participate.

Intercontinental Exchange, Ticker: $ ICE
ice

Intercontinental Exchange, $ ICE, broke above a consolidation zone in October, rising to 265 and consolidated again. The pullback from there has seen a bounce and testing of resistance again as it rises. The RSI is moving back above the mid line while the MACD is about to cross up. Look for a move over the short term resistance to participate.

Progressive, Ticker: $ PGR
pgr

Progressive, $ PGR, spiked down with the market in August but trended higher quickly erasing that pullback and making a new high in October. The Evening start pattern then sent it back lower into a consolidation zone. The RSI continues to rise and the MACD is rising, diverging or perhaps leading price. The Bollinger Bands® also appear to be opening higher. Look for a move over resistance to participate.

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If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using the Get Premium button above.

After reviewing over 1,000 charts, I have found some good setups for the week. These were selected and should be viewed in the context of the broad Market Macro picture reviewed Friday which, heading into another holiday shortened week, and one that should prove to be very light on everything, sees the equity markets have rebounded but are still looking vulnerable, especially the SPY.

Elsewhere look for Gold to consolidate in its downtrend while Crude Oil continues a bounce in its downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to be weaker short term in consolidation while US Treasuries consolidate. The Shanghai Composite looks to continue consolidation with an upward bias while Emerging Markets bounce in their consolidation of the downward move.

Volatility looks to remain Subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts agree with that in the short term with the IWM looking the strongest. In the intermediate term the SPY looks weakest while the IWM and QQQ continue the sideways churn. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

Contact me at greg@dragonflycap.com and use the code SANTA in the message to get either an annual subscription for $ 556 (10% off) or an annual subscription plus my book signed for $ 600.

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through December 2015 and sign up here

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SPY Trends and Influencers December 26, 2015

Written By: DragonFly Capital

A weekly excerpt from the Macro Review analysis sent to subscribers on 10 markets and two timeframes.

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested heading into the shortened Christmas week that the equity markets looked weak in the short term with the SPY weak in the intermediate term as well. Elsewhere watching Gold ($ GLD) for a bounce in its downtrend while Crude Oil ($ USO) continued lower. The US Dollar Index ($ UUP) looked strong and ready for more upside while US Treasuries ($ TLT) were mired in broad consolidation.

The Shanghai Composite ($ ASHR) was biased higher in consolidation and Emerging Markets ($ EEM) were biased to the downside. Volatility ($ VXX) looked to remain elevated keeping the bias lower for the equity index ETF’s $ SPY, $ IWM and $ QQQ. Their charts concurred on the daily feed after back-to-back strong down days, while the IWM and QQQ were nearing support in prior consolidation channels on the intermediate view. The SPY looked to be weaker, rolling lower on the longer view.

The week played out with Gold pressing up to resistance while Crude Oil started lower but quickly found support and bounced. The US Dollar moved slightly lower while Treasuries found overhead resistance and pulled back. The Shanghai Composite continued higher while Emerging Markets made a higher low, rising through the week. Volatility fell back to a more normal range, easing the headwinds to the market. The Equity Index ETF’s all started the week with firming action then ran higher into the Christmas Eve close. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

SPY Daily, $ SPY
spy d

The SPY came into the week looking horrible in the short term. A bearish Marubozu followed with a gap down and another near Marubozu left it outside of the Bollinger Bands®. That seemed the only hope for an oversold bounce. An inside day, or Harami, Monday in the form of a Hammer brought it back into the Bollinger Bands though and gave a possible reversal signal. That was confirmed higher Tuesday. The gap up Wednesday then continued closing at the high and followed by consolidation Thursday.

All this is happening among the 20, 50 and 200 day SMA’s. At this point it is still a series of lower highs and lower lows until a move over 208.48. The daily chart shows the RSI moving over the mid line, still low in the bullish zone, but with the MACD turning up and looking like a cross up is imminent. The weekly chart shows the increased volatility of the past few weeks in the loner candles and the 100 week SMA creeping into the picture for a touch.

The RSI is oscillating around the mid line while the MACD is leveling pulling back toward the signal line in its rise. There is resistance higher at 206.40 and 208.40 followed by 209 and 210.25 then 211. Support lower comes at 204.40 and 203 followed by 201.75 and 200. Short Term Upward Bias in the Intermediate Downward Move.

SPY Weekly, $ SPY
spy w

Into another holiday shortened week, and one that should prove to be very light on everything the equity markets have rebounded but are still looking vulnerable, especially the SPY. Elsewhere look for Gold to consolidate in its downtrend while Crude Oil continues a bounce in its downtrend. The US Dollar Index looks to be weaker short term in consolidation while US Treasuries consolidate.

The Shanghai Composite looks to continue consolidation with an upward bias while Emerging Markets bounce in their consolidation of the downward move. Volatility looks to remain Subdued keeping the bias higher for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts agree with that in the short term with the IWM looking the strongest. In the intermediate term the SPY looks weakest while the IWM and QQQ continue the sideways churn. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trad’em well.

Join the Premium Users and you can view the Full Version with 20 detailed charts and analysis: Macro Week in Review/Preview December 18, 2015

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Its not too late for Christmas! Contact me at greg@dragonflycap.com and use the code SANTA in the message to get either an annual subscription for $ 556 (10% off) or an annual subscription plus my book signed for $ 600.

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through November 2015 and sign up here

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Macro Week in Review/Preview December 24, 2015

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Last week’s review of the macro market indicators suggested heading into the shortened Christmas week that the equity markets looked weak in the short term with the SPY weak in the intermediate term as well. Elsewhere watching Gold for a bounce in its downtrend while Crude Oil continued lower. The US Dollar Index looked strong and ready for more upside while US Treasuries were mired in broad consolidation.

The Shanghai Composite was biased higher in consolidation and Emerging Markets were biased to the downside. Volatility looked to remain elevated keeping the bias lower for the equity index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ. Their charts concurred on the daily feed after back-to-back strong down days, while the IWM and QQQ were nearing support in prior consolidation channels on the intermediate view. The SPY looked to be weaker, rolling lower on the longer view.

The week played out with Gold pressing up to resistance while Crude Oil started lower but quickly found support and bounced. The US Dollar moved slightly lower while Treasuries found overhead resistance and pulled back. The Shanghai Composite continued higher while Emerging Markets made a higher low, rising through the week. Volatility fell back to a more normal range, easing the headwinds to the market. The Equity Index ETF’s all started the week with firming action then ran higher into the Christmas Eve close. What does this mean for the coming week? Lets look at some charts.

If you like what you see sign up for more ideas and deeper analysis using the Get Premium button above. As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

Dragonfly Capital

How this Week’s Top 10 Performed, December 24, 2015

Written By: DragonFly Capital

Every month following Options Expiration I post performance metrics of the Dragonfly Capital Model Portfolio. This includes all trades that I entered over time. What it does not include is the one’s I miss for whatever reason (getting lunch, going to the bathroom, etc….). So each week I post the performance of the stocks that were given to subscribers the previous Sunday. All performance is measured against the plan given to subscribers. That is not reflected in the index ETF performance, which there is no stop loss. Here is this week’s:

12-24-2015 1-18-43 PM

Equal Weighted Investment Yield assumes a buy at 1/10 portfolio size for each stock that triggers and accounts for stop loss triggers in the trade plan presented to subscribers (i.e. your performance would be better). Short position performance is calculated opposite of security movement. If the security is labeled no trigger than our trade plan would not have executed a trade (i.e. you would have had no position).

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

It’s not too late for Christmas! Contact me at greg@dragonflycap.com and use the code SANTA in the message to get either an annual subscription for $ 556 (10% off) or an annual subscription plus my book signed for $ 600.

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

Get my ebook, Markets for 2015 and Beyond, a long term forecast with all proceeds going to charity.

Want to learn more about Dragonfly Capital Views?
Dragonfly Capital Views Performance Through November 2015 and sign up here

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