Exploring the Emini Extended Run Volume Profile Chart

Will we ever get a pullback in this extended market?  It sure feels like we won’t.

In the event that we do, what does the Volume Profile Chart reveal about the levels to watch?

I’m so glad you asked!

With the market running strongly up away from the prior consolidation zone, there’s very little in the way of volume support nodes after the breakout beyond 2,505.

A small volume “hump” (distribution) node occurs just beneath 2,549 where the market trades currently.

We’ll use this as our short-term focal point for intraday trades.

For swing traders, however, the next low price target in terms of the Volume Profile is our new 2,505 level along with our old (prior) 2,495 level as seen from the red line (highest volume node) and distribution.

What’s the plan here?

Continue ignoring every bearish indicator and logic itself UNTIL price ACTUALLY breaks beneath the steeply rising trendline and/or moving averages.

Only then can you play for lower targets on a pullback in this rare “extended run” environment.

 

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Impressive Emini Rally and the Volume Profile Level to Watch

With the stellar rally in the market taking us to new all-time highs, what level appears as our Volume at Price pivot?

Let’s update our chart – hint:  it hasn’t changed – and take a look now.

Emini ES @ES Volume Profile

We’ve consistently seen the market print the 2,495 level as the “Volume Node” via our Volume Profile Chart.

With the market screaming higher, it’s done so quickly without time to digest price or volume.

This means we have an “Open Air” pocket beneath the market in the event we ever get a pullback (it feels like we never will).

However, one of two things MUST happen now:

Either price forms a new Value Area or Trading Range (consolidation) at the highs and thus the Volume Node (red line) rises to meet the new accepted or balanced range…

or price crashes through the rapid “sugar high” action on low accepted volume BACK toward a level of price and volume acceptance.

That level on the chart – as seen through the prior price consolidation and the Volume Profile – is the 2,495 level.

Plan your trades accordingly and be safe.

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Professional Volume Profile and Look-Out-Below Target Levels for Emini

With the market hanging out at all time highs, drifting back today, what levels should we be clearly watching in the event sellers actually do take charge and price retraces lower?

A Volume Profile (at price) Chart gives us these key target levels:

Volume Profile

Thanks to Think or Swim’s Volume Profile Study, we can pinpoint which exact levels where volume has traded with price – and more importantly for us, where it has not.

This is similar to Market Profile logic with the vertical distribution but it takes into account volume traded at specific prices.

Namely when the bars on the right side of the chart are longer, MORE volume transacted at that price.

Conversely where the bars are smaller, less volume transacted at that price.

We can consider the larger-volume areas as “acceptance” or support/resistance levels and the lesser-volume areas as “open air” where price traveled quickly without transacting many contracts (volume).

Logic aside, let’s get straight to the point – Why does it Matter?

It matters because IF – and that’s a big IF – price does fall down beneath the current “high volume node” of 2,504, then the NEXT lower support level (target) is 2,494.

Here’s where it gets interesting – IF price falls beneath the volume/price node at 2,495, then we see very small bars until we hit the pocket near 2,465.

So, in the event price does fall beneath 2,500 and then 2,395, LOOK OUT BELOW toward 2,465.

And of course, if buyers continue to win the market with a breakout, then this risk-profile analysis and risk-plan won’t matter.

 

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Emini Still Trades and Bounces within our Grid Sept 6

Our breakout beyond 2,470 was short-lived last week.  Now, we’re back within our grid.

Let’s chart today’s @ES Fibonacci Grid in play:

Emini @ES Intraday Trend Reversal

After the Labor Day holiday, shares plunged back toward our 2,448 Fibonacci Pivot and reversed powerfully up away from this level, closing back at the 2,458 Fibonacci Target.

At the moment, we’re back within the 2,458 and 2,470 price pivots as price rests between them.

There’s no special analysis or plan here – continue to trade the movement between these levels until we get above 2,480 (target 2,500) or beneath 2,420.

Until then, we’ll continue loving this range because it’s effective for our short-term trades.

Come join us to learn these tactics (beyond this simple/quick update) and have an evening game plan you can use effectively for the next trading day.

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Emini Plays the Fibonacci Levels like a Fiddle Aug 30

We finally got a breakout of our Fibonacci Grid!!!  Here’s today’s big update in price action.

Let’s chart today’s @ES Fibonacci Grid in play:

Emini @ES Intraday Trend Reversal

I highlight these levels develop a game-plan for the next trading day for our members.

Yesterday saw a gap-down to our 78.6% level (overnight) and a strong intraday rally back inside the highlighted range.

Today gave us a big breakout through 2,448 which set in motion a play UP toward our 2,457 level which is achieved right now.

For the rest of today, use 2,457 as your bull/bear pivot and play the departure from our target.

Come join us to learn these tactics (beyond this simple/quick update) and have an evening game plan you can use effectively for the next trading day.

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E-Mini Surge

I just finished up a more comprehensive examination of the market in a PLUS post here, so if you’re a member, check it out (and if you’re not, consider trying out a membership). The ES has rocketed (which is appropriate, given the missile threats) higher lately, and we’re getting very close to the underbelly of […]
Slope of Hope

Once Again the Emini Plays the Tight Range Aug 24

As we trade today’s session, we’re STILL within the tiny Fibonacci Boundaries of yesterday.

Here’s today’s @ES Fibonacci Grid in play:

Emini @ES Intraday Trend Reversal

I highlight these levels develop a game-plan for the next trading day for our members.

We had a NEUTRAL pivot bias between the 2,440 and 2,448 Fibonacci Levels… and lo and behold that’s exactly where today’s (so far) and yesterday’s intraday high and low occurred.

It’s almost like magic! Except we had a tiny trap beneath 2,440 earlier this morning.

We’ll continue playing this range until we get a breakout, and I’ll discuss that plan for members tonight!

Come join us to learn these tactics (beyond this simple/quick update) and have an evening game plan you can use effectively for the next trading day.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


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Emini Playing the Tight Fibonacci Range Today Aug 23

We expect Range Contraction (consolidation) after big Trend Days like yesterday.

At the moment, that’s exactly what we’re getting with today’s tight intraday range.

Here’s today’s @ES Fibonacci Grid in play:

Emini @ES Intraday Trend Reversal

I highlight these levels develop a game-plan for the next trading day for our members.

We had a NEUTRAL pivot bias between the 2,440 and 2,448 Fibonacci Levels… and lo and behold that’s exactly where toady’s intraday high and low occurred.

It’s almost like magic!  We’ll continue playing this range until we get a breakout, and I’ll discuss that plan for members tonight!

Come join us to learn these tactics (beyond this simple/quick update) and have an evening game plan you can use effectively for the next trading day.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


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The Exciting and Expected Emini Bounce August 22

Traps on both sides of the market?  Another surge off support!  Sounds like a typical week.

Here’s today’s @ES Fibonacci Grid in play:

Emini @ES Intraday Trend Reversal

Our analysis (that I’ve correctly been highlighting to members) had us focusing on 2,420 as a critical support/bounce price pivot level and today we’re seeing the outcome of that critical “last support” pivot.

This morning gave us a gap-up away from the 2,420 low as price traveled not just to our first target (the 2,439 level) but the middle target here at 2,448.

With the bounce underway and the target achieved, use 2,450 as your new bull/bear pivot within our larger Fibonacci Retracement Grid.

Come join us to learn these tactics (beyond this simple/quick update) and have an evening game plan you can use effectively for the next trading day.

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Our August 15 Bouncing Emini Fibonacci Grid Update

With volatility back in the market (for now), let’s update our Fibonacci Grid for the @ES because – believe it or not – it’s STILL working very well for short-term traders.

Here’s today’s @ES Fibonacci Grid in play:

Emini @ES Intraday Trend Reversal

Monday gave us our strong, expected rally up away from the 2,440 critical pivot (that I’ve correctly been highlighting to members) and we now see price gapping up – and falling this morning – at our 2,470 Fibonacci Target.

In simplest terms for a quick update, our pivot points to watch today include (today’s gap-up high) at 2,469 and the 2,458 Fibonacci Levels.

A breakout above 2,470 suggests we’ll retest the high while a break under 2,458 means we’ll play lower toward 2,445 again.

Come join us to learn these tactics (beyond this simple/quick update) and have an evening game plan you can use effectively for the next trading day.

 

 

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August 8 Perfect Intraday Emini Trend Reversal Lesson

While new traders aren’t encouraged to fight/fade trend in motion, there are specific setups that increase the odds to successfully catching an intraday trend reversal.

Let’s see a few examples from today’s textbook trend reversal:

Emini @ES Intraday Trend Reversal

We started the day with another rally up away from the 2,475 critical pivot (that I’ve correctly been highlighting to members) toward the 2,490 Round Number pivot.

Let’s start our discussion there, a point shy of 2,490’s resistance target.

As price pushed strongly higher – trending up – toward this pivot, look closely at…

  • Momentum which spiked at 8:00am PST and  and diverged (formed lower highs) and
  • NYSE TICK which similarly diverged.

I find persistent Market Internal divergences more important/predictive than momentum divergences but it’s helpful to have both in place when trading a potential reversal.

Nevertheless, divergences make us cautious and less likely to buy a pullback in a rising trend.

Next, Kick-Off Signals developed which further tipped the odds in favor of a reversal.

A Kick-Off occurs when momentum or internals (or both) make a New Session Low (in a rising trend like this) when price is clearly NOT making a new session low.

Note how high price was ABOVE the session low near 2,474 while Momentum and TICK both fired off new intraday lows.  That’s a powerful signal most traders miss!

Finally, price broke a rising trendline and the 20 and 50 EMAs crossed bearishly.

The safe short-sale opportunity triggered where I highlighted price beneath the cross-over.

Super aggressive traders could have attempted to short-sell earlier and could have used a tighter stop above 2,490.

Wherever you enter, your stop should be placed above the session high (as you’re playing for a trend reversal – price shouldn’t go back and make a new high.  If so, get out).

If the trade becomes successful and price does reverse, hold as long as possible until you see similar bullish reversal signals.

Today, price traded steadily back toward the session low.

I’ll discuss this and more strategy planning for members.

Come join us to learn these tactics and have an evening game plan you can use for the next trading day.

 

 

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Emini SP500 Slowly and Gently Drifting to the Highs Aug 7

After a narrow range developed between 2,465 and 2,475, we’re seeing a soft bullish drift take place today.

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

I’m not sure this bull market will ever end, as we’re drifting back toward the prior high.

With the bullish rally today, note the upward pathway toward 2,480.

Should price break above this pivot to new all-time highs, we’ll be playing bullishly toward our 2,500 simple target.

Otherwise, a return under 2,475 has us playing more “ping-pong” between our pivots.

If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


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Emini Still Fiercely Trades within our Fibonacci Levels August 1

We have YET ANOTHER “gap and crap” day like yesterday where morning strength (a gap up) turns into immediate weakness toward support.

We’re playing the same game within the same levels as yesterday (see the prior post).

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

While we had a bullish gap up, the bears took their swipe as price returned within our very short-term Fibonacci Grid.

Our intraday low so far is the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of the July 27th swing.

We’re monitoring the mini-Fib range between 2,466 and 2,472 and the bullish breakout swing above it or bearish breakdown back toward 2,462 at least.

As today plays out, focus on these levels and the ping-pong play between them until we get a breakout.

If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

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A Second Gap and Crap for the Emini at the Highs July 31

While today started similarly to July 27th’s “Gap and Collapse,” today we’re seeing a rally off support instead of a violent, vicious engulfing session.

Let’s update our levels and plans for the day.

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

While we had a bullish gap up, the bears took their swipe as price returned within a very short-term Fibonacci Grid.

Our intraday low is the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the July 27th swing.

We’re monitoring the mini-Fib range between 2,466 and 2,472 and the bullish breakout swing above it or bearish breakdown back toward 2,462 at least.

As today plays out, focus on these levels and the ping-pong play between them.

If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


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Well Look, a New Updated Fibonacci Grid for the Emini July 28

After a series of new all-time highs – at which point we really can’t draw a Fibonacci Grid to target pullbacks – we ARE seeing a decent pullback today to a key “first Fibonacci” target.

Here’s today’s updated Emini (@ES) trading levels for your trades:

A big rally emerged on July 6th off the 2,410 level that sent price surging toward 2,480.

However, a persistent negative momentum (and volume) divergence set the stage for risky conditions for the bulls … and the market snapped yesterday.

The selling (liquidation) was particularly powerful in tech names in the NASDAQ index though the Dow and S&P 500 were spared most of the collapse-style price movement.

Nevertheless, here we are, trading into – and possibly bouncing “up away from” – the 23.6% Fibonacci Pivot just above 2,460.

Use this as your short/term and intraday “bull/bear” pivot price as highlighted.

If you’re new to this style of simple level trading, welcome aboard and keep checking back or get more details beyond just the @ES (stock scans, money flow, education) by becoming a member!

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


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