New York Times discourages women from working

“My Generation Thought Women Were Empowered. Did We Deceive Ourselves?” (nytimes) is a 71-year-old woman’s tale of suffering at the hands of men in the workplace:

When I started out in journalism in the 1970s, … My first job was at the London bureau of a prominent international wire service. When I walked in the newsroom, the all-male staff gaped at me as if I were an oasis in a desert. … I felt lonely, in need of a friend. I suppose this is why I responded when one reporter began to engage me in conversation. My hopes rose — until I felt the hand slowly sneaking up my thigh. I dispatched him with an elbow in the torso. And the guy who grabbed my butt the next day got a swift back kick into the kneecap and a couple of four-letter words.

When you get older, gender discrimination gets easier, somewhat predictable and sometimes even funny. But it doesn’t stop — even if you’ve published four books and had a long journalism career. When my last book came out, I was interviewed by a certain talk show host, before he was stripped of his job because of gross sexual misconduct charges. I had hardly opened my mouth before he fell asleep. During the rest of the interview, he kept nodding off while the camera judiciously avoided him. When I left the studio, he had popped awake for his new guests. I saw him waving his hands enthusiastically while speaking with two high-powered male journalists.

I herald this latest female generation for their courage in revealing their humiliations for the chance to change society. We, the earliest female newswomen, were tough, ambitious, even cocky about our talent, but over the years, our self-confidence was often irreparably harmed. Our generation might have been smart, but there was much we just didn’t get. Grateful to win a place in the hierarchy of power, we didn’t understand the ways that gender degradation still shaped our work lives.

Suppose that young female readers of the New York Times assume that this story is representative of women’s experiences in the workforce, i.e., humiliation, groping, and irreparable harm. Why would a rational woman then choose to enter the workforce?

Now that everyone can agree that “news” is more about promoting an agenda of some kind, can we infer that the NYT’s agenda is to discourage American women from working?

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

A Euphoric Rally into Collapse Lesson from Square SQ

Here’s one for the lesson books – Square (SQ) had a euphoric or parabolic rally that gave way to the all-but-inevitable snap-back crash straight into a key support price.

Here’s the Euphoric Rise that gave way to the Stellar Collapse:

Square (SQ) is a new stock that you may not have traded yet but it’s sporting a classic pattern of a euphoric (unsustainable) rally that just gave way to a textbook collapse event.

Despite a strong higher timeframe uptrend, price stabilized (intraday chart) at the $ 32.00 per share level and built a rally toward $ 38.00 per share.

At that point, a clear Ascending Triangle Pattern developed which triggered a bullish breakout entry above $ 38.00 on November 10th.

Price got ahead of itself, surging straight up into a “Parabolic Arc” or “Euphoric Top” pattern that set the stage for the pain of a collapse after the pleasure of the euphoria.

Traders are encouraged to avoid trading INTO the late-stage euphoria (bullishly) due to the risk of a price collapse.

Similarly, bears are discouraged from short-selling a euphoric pattern event like this because price can remain overbought and irrational – and surging higher – beyond your ability to sustain a reasonable risk or stop-loss strategy.

VERY aggressive traders can engage short on the breakdown – in this case a gap – beneath the rising “arc” or adaptive trendline.

We’ve achieved our first target of the initial breakout from the original Symmetrical Triangle.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

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Webinar Lessons from 18 Years of Active Trading with Corey this Thursday

I’m so excited about this opportunity to share with you the lessons – good and bad – from my 18 years as a swing and intraday trader.

Our featured webinar with Mike at Futures.IO will take place this Thursday right after market close:

It’ll be both an introspective look at my trading journey – most likely paralleling your journey along the way – and will include specific lessons I’ve learned that I wish I knew earlier.

My goal is to assist you at whatever point you are currently in your trading journey by sharing what’s worked, what hasn’t worked, what’s important, and what’s not from my 18 years in the markets.

Go ahead and register now and grab a notepad!

Thank you to Mike and his team for this introspective educational opportunity and we can’t wait to see you there with us live!



Afraid to Blog

A Lesson from the V Spike Intraday Reversal Today Nov 14

Today’s intraday V-Spike Reversal gives us a chance to study the set-up to trade an intraday reversal and not get trapped on the wrong side of a rapid movement.

Let’s highlight the pattern and pinpoint the higher timeframe support level from which it logically developed:

Intraday V-Spike Reversal on Positive Divergences

Intraday V-Spike Reversal on Positive Divergences

A large gap-down often suggests the early development of a Trend Day.

However, it’s important to take higher timeframe levels – especially key price targets – into consideration before joining into the trending action.

Yes, price gave a valid short-sell bear flag opportunity on the first pullback but price achieved its downside support target as seen on the intraday chart:

Higher Timeframe Key Support (Price) Level

Higher Timeframe Key Support (Price) Level

The 2,565 level was a “Double Bottom” price level from which buyers intervened and rallied the market higher on two occasions – November 2 and 9.

With the downside objective achieved, we turn our attention to the real time data from Market Internals (TICK) and Momentum.

As we can see in the first chart, BOTH metrics formed an obvious/visual Positive Divergence at the higher timeframe target.

Once again, buyers intervened today, thrusting the market higher and giving bulls another chance to profit from a “BUY THE DIP” scenario.

Bears… they didn’t fend as well if they missed seeing the support level and missed the positive divergence as it occurred in real time.

Keep studying this event and apply what you learn to future scenarios like this.

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

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Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”

Afraid to Blog

Pilatus news from NBAA 2017

For Pilatus PC-12 operators, the exciting news at NBAA was mostly at the Garmin booth. Usually these folks are tight-lipped about certification plans for specific aircraft, but apparently the marketing folks failed to fully brief the booth guys (nearly all appeared to identify as men). They said that they expected PC-12 certification for the new autopilot and displays within 18 months. Thus for $ 200,000 an older PC-12 could shed its $ 17,000-per-year Bendix/King (Honeywell) warranty and cathode ray tube displays in favor of a thoroughly modern panel. Bendix/King simply had no response to this competition. There are roughly 700 PC-12s out there stuffed with Bendix/King (Honeywell) avionics designs from the late 1980s/early 1990s. Boxes critical to flight safety are failing multiple times per year in an airplane that can hold 11 people. Honeywell folks at the show, asked if they were going to provide owners of their product with an upgrade path to something modern, simply said “we’re thinking about it.”

If the avionics in a legacy PC-12 are getting tougher to maintain every year, the rest of the airframe may be getting easier. Pilatus is working on a maintenance interval extension (currently at 150 hours). The company also redesigned the wing de-ice timer to use solid-state relays and also not to start inflating the rubber boots for 20 seconds. This gives the pilot time to check the outside temperature and, if below -40C, turn the boots back off (they’ll crack if operated in super cold high altitude air, a $ 30,000+ mistake). This being the aviation industry, nobody at the operator’s meeting raised his or her hand to ask “Why isn’t a $ 5 million airplane smart enough to display a ‘too cold for boots’ warning and then inhibit them unless the pilot confirms with an additional switch input that it is an emergency where the boots might help?”

In my Pilatus News from the 2015 NBAA I noted that GE and Cessna were working on a PC-12 competitor. The Cessna Denali seems to be coming along, but hasn’t flown. So far Pratt hasn’t made any commitments to matching the technology in the new GE turboprop engine, including the FADEC. Pilatus is concentrating on getting its PC-24 jet out the door. So the Cessna Denali could be a home run in this market if it ends up substantially outperforming the existing PC-12 (not significantly improved since 2005 when the PC-12/47 model was introduced (the Honeywell panel introduced for the NG model in 2008 is not universally regarded as an “improvement”; the Cessna will have the Garmin G3000 that everyone wants)).

The Pilatus operator’s meeting was dominated by “government regulation giveth and government regulation taketh away.” The European bureaucrats, after about 20 years, finally approved all-weather charter operations in single-engine turboprops such as the PC-12 (now that 1,500 PC-12s have been built and some have accumulated more than 30,000 flight hours!). On the other hand, after more than 20 years of peace, the U.S. FAA bureaucrats decided to wage war on charter operations in the PC-12, citing FAR 135.163:

No person may operate an aircraft under IFR, carrying passengers, unless it has

(f) For a single-engine aircraft:

(1) Two independent electrical power generating sources each of which is able to supply all probable combinations of continuous inflight electrical loads for required instruments and equipment; or

(2) In addition to the primary electrical power generating source, a standby battery or an alternate source of electric power that is capable of supplying 150% of the electrical loads of all required instruments and equipment necessary for safe emergency operation of the aircraft for at least one hour;

The older PC-12s have a “GEN2” belt-driven alternator (115 amps at 28 volts) that is certainly adequate for getting back on the ground in the event that the main GEN1 (300 amps) fails. They also have a main battery and an emergency battery system for the essential instruments. Somehow various local offices decided that the unchanged airplane did not comply with the unchanged regulation. Three operators were shut down while planes in other regions were still running. After a year of paperwork submissions to various FAA offices, Pilatus and the General Aviation Manufacturers Association went as supplicants to the FAA headquarters and somehow got this sorted out.

The Harvey Weinstein story had broken a week before NBAA and Bill Cosby is known as a Pilatus PC-12 owner (N712BC gets him and his family in and out of the 3200′ runway at Turners Falls). The big fight in California over the Santa Monica airport also had been in the news. Finally there were celebrations of general aviation’s contributions to disaster relief, including bizjets going in and out of hurricane-struck Puerto Rico. These items were put together: “Bill Cosby could send his PC-12 into Santa Monica to rescue all of the women who said ‘no’ to Harvey Weinstein,” which generated a response “There would probably be a couple of seats empty.” (the executive configuration PC-12 holds 6-8 passengers in the back)

Pilatus is a private company, but Switzerland apparently requires some public-company-style disclosures of big private companies (this makes sense under Econ 101; markets function with textbook efficiency only when participants have a lot of information). We learned that the company has revenues of about 900 million Swiss francs (worth slightly more than one USD) and profits before R&D and interest of about 200 million francs (down closer to 100 million after R&D expenses, presumably mostly associated with the PC-24 jet). The company was profitable even through the ugly 2008-2010 years.

The PC-24 jet remains on track for certification later this year and delivery of the first plane (on December 31 at 11:58 pm?) to New Hampshire-based PlaneSense, the world’s most experienced Pilatus PC-12 operator. It will cost about $ 10 million for this eight-passenger plane (10 pax in airline config, plus 2 pilots in front), but the company has taken 83 orders and won’t accept more until at least some are out in the wild.

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

What are Windows users doing with these new HEIC-format files from iOS 11?

Because I want life to be as miserable as possible, I upgraded my iPhone 7 Plus to iOS 11. It didn’t occur to me to go into the Settings->Camera->Formats menu and change the “Camera Capture” setting to “Most Compatible.” The default of “High Efficiency” results in a directory full of HEIC format files. In keeping with Microsoft’s policy of trying to avoid providing any feature that wasn’t part of Windows XP, my desktop computer, running Windows 10, can’t read these. Neither can Adobe Lightroom or Photoshop.

Recall that Google abandoned its faithful users by dropping support for Picasa and refusing to open-source the product. So it would seem that there is no hope of making HEIC files part of a Picasa-based workflow (but maybe it would still work if Microsoft put support into the OS?).

Readers: If you’re using Microsoft Windows and the iPhone what are you doing to manage HEIC photos on your desktop or laptop?

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Perspectives on immigration and long-term economic and political forecasts from the Azores, Madeira, and the Canary Islands

Some perspectives from reading the guidebooks and listening to tour guides in Portugal, the Azores, Madeira, and the Canary Islands…

Low-skilled immigration makes a country poorer according to the Lonely Planet Portugal guidebook, otherwise filled with politically correct sentiments:

In 1974 and 1975 there was a massive influx of refugees from the former African colonies, changing the demographic of the city and culturally, if not financially, adding to its richness.

The fewer immigrants the better according to Lonely Planet Canary Islands:

Migration from Africa has also stabilized with just 288 migrants arriving here in 2014, compared to a staggering 32,000 in 2006 when some days several hundred Africans would reach the islands in their rickety wooden boats.

Guides in the Canaries told us that, in addition to using military force to resist immigration from Africa, they use police and regulations to resist immigrants from other parts of the EU. To stay in the Canaries one must have either a W-2 job or prove to authorities that one has sufficient savings and income to sustain oneself without collecting welfare.

The accepted narrative in guidebooks and among locals is that population growth historically led to unemployment and poverty for which the only relief was emigration. This is where the “tough to make predictions about the future” angle of the title comes in. During the last 120 years or so, the countries that seemed the most promising destinations for ambitious young Atlantic islanders: Cuba, South Africa, Venezuela. (A lot of folks ended up bouncing back, sometimes a couple of generations after emigrating.)

Separately, for those who didn’t emigrate you might ask what life is like. On the Azores the answer is “awesome.” The islands have fantastic roads, considering the mountainous terrain, which are never crowded. “All of these roads and tunnels were funded by the EU starting in the 1990s,” explained our guide. Every small town has a festival at least once per year and residents will party until sunrise. “There are a lot of little towns here,” explained our guide, “so we’re usually at a festival about once every week.” This prompted a Swiss tourist to mutter “When do these people work?” Locals stress the safety and security of their lives on the islands, the good schools for their children, and the strong connections to family and neighbors. The economy of the Azores is built on agriculture and some islands are just covered in dairy farms. The farther south you go to Madeira and the Canary Islands the more it feels like an artificial tourist outpost, but the locals express some of the same sentiments as do those in the Azores. One thing these folks love is transportation. Towns are clustered around harbors and airports are built absolutely as close to a town as possible. Nobody complains about overflight noise of inter-island turboprops or jets from the mainland.

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Trading lessons from Happy Hour

We held a traders Happy Hour last night for our proprietary trading firm.

Some of the new hires having a blast asked how often we hold Happy Hours.  And I thought, “What we don’t cover this during recruiting?”  Note to HR.

Rooming the room to check in on everyone a few trading lessons emerged:

  1. Traders were gathering and discussing new ways to make money.  As we say on our desk, how to expand your PlayBook.  The better traders were using this Happy Hour as an opportunity to brainstorm with other top traders.  One idea discussed between two top traders was something that had never been done at the firm and worthy of a deep dive.  Some more beers over here please.
  2. Some promising developing traders were using the Happy Hour as a way to review the past week.  A gaggle on the desk had two tough days followed by two very strong days.  How could they draw down less during the down days?  How could they have been bigger during the strong days?  Were they leaning too heavily to one side, rather than being more open-minded?  How is the AI run-up different than other low float runners?
  3. The most social developing traders were chatting up the top traders about trade ideas and the generation of trade ideas.  They were using the strength of their social skills to strengthen their learning.  This is a good practice for those who learn best thru interaction.  It is not just that you want to build a trading system that allows you to express your strengths in markets, but the way you work to improve ought to match your learning strengths as well.
  4. The Three Monkeys Bar has a really nice roof top bar and beer garden selection.  It was enjoyable to be outside in beautiful weather right before the chill is to come.

I had to head home to get the kids ready for bed before the end of this gathering.  My sense is I may have missed a few things that the younger traders did not.

*no relevant positions

SMB Training Blog

Will the Dow Jones US Retail REITs Index Recover From Its 34% Decline?

After dramatically dropping 34% from its historical high of 151.85 from mid-2016 to a low of 99.98 in May of this year, the Dow Jones US Retail REITs Index has been stuck in a sideways trading range and is attempting to maintain a stable position above a long-term 40% Fib retracement level of 102.42, as shown on the following Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts. Longer term, the Monthly momentum and rate […]
Slope of Hope

Nine from ABC

Tonight I think I’ll share some of my favorite shorts – – I only got through the first three letters of the alphabet before I had enough symbols, such we’ll just do A through C. These are all “live” positions, and they’re all short (naturally). First up is Acadia Pharmaceuticals, which has a well-defined diamond […]
Slope of Hope

SMB Webinar: How our most recent hire went from Home Depot to desk trader

I wrote about the guest of our next trading webinar this Thursday, 9/28, at 4:15PM EST here.

He was the winner of The Winning Trader, a course we developed to give our trading community a chance to experiment with trading setups with edge from our desk.  His consistent effort, program-leading PlayBook trades, conscientiousness, perfect attendance at daily trading mentoring sessions, passion, active questions, creation of a chat room just for program students separated this student from other outstanding students.

First, he won The Winning Trader and trained for free on our desk.  Now he has been hired on our desk to trade with us and earned a fully funded trading account!

The home run for everything we do at SMB Training is to find serious trading students, train them, and hire them for our desk.  And if they want to continue trading independently, but at a much higher level, that is fantastic as well.

We will shine a light on this former self-directed and independent trader because he is an inspiration for all who want to trade professionally.  He was in a job that was not his true passion.  He wanted to find a path to becoming a professional trader at a prop trading firm.  And he has!

Rob will share his trading and training journey with you.

Merritt and I will ask him questions about his experience from Home Depot manager to prop trading desk.

You will have an opportunity to ask Rob questions about his training and trading.

If your goal is to trade professionally or just better independently, learn from someone who has figured this all out.  Someone like Rob.

We hope to see you this Thursday.

*no relevant positions

SMB Training Blog

General hysteria from the media makes it tough to pay attention to the real issues?

On August 26 I wrote The End Times in Texas: media portrayal versus reality about the contrast between the tone of at least some media stories regarding Hurricane Harvey and what Houston-based friends were saying in email or on Facebook. My post sought to avoid the selection bias of typical media reports by seeking on-the-ground accounts from non-journalists.

Within about 40 hours of that post it became apparent that the scale of damage was close to the worst-case scenarios that had been painted. None of my on-the-scene friends had been prepared for it. Now I’m wondering if the media’s generally hysterical tone is partly responsible for folks discounting the likelihood of the worst-case scenarios.

In the not-so-glorious-as-remembered days of my youth, newspapers didn’t have to work desperately to capture readers and advertisers. More or less every family in a city would subscribe to that city’s principal newspaper. There was a steady stream of subscription and advertising revenue even during “slow news” periods. An editor could run a quiet “human interest” story on the front page if there were nothing sufficiently dramatic happening to justify a big headline.

Today, however, newspapers have to compete for attention with other online diversions, streaming video, video games, etc. So even the most irrelevant information is characterized as having the potential to change readers’ lives, the smallest issues debated in Congress become life-or-death, and the most ineffectual action taken by a president is the next step toward tyranny.

As an example, here’s a front-page expose from the New York Times on the same day, August 26, as my Hurricane Harvey post: “Late Wages for Migrant Workers at a Trump Golf Course in Dubai”:

“Trump is not the owner or developer of Trump International Golf Club Dubai nor does it oversee construction or employ or supervise any of the companies or individuals who have been retained to work on the building of the project,” said a company spokeswoman, Amanda Miller, in an emailed statement.

The Pakistani driver who works at the Trump course arrived three years ago, seeking to support his wife and two boys. He took a job driving a pickup, earning over $ 800 a month, or more than twice his pay at home. He is supposed to be paid within the first five days of the month. Frequently, a week or more passes without the money arriving.

In other words, after reading about 15 screens of text one learns that the subcontractor of the subcontractor of the Trump partner does eventually pay workers in full. This merited “top of the home page” placement on the same day as stories about one of our largest cities being potentially flooded.

Readers: What do you think? When everything is presented as a crisis do we lose our ability to perceive the true potential crises?


Philip Greenspun’s Weblog