Weekly Market Recap Dec 10, 2017

Before we talk about the stodgy ole stock market, anyone see that Bitcoin? $ 11K last week – $ 16K this week…. and as I write this bitcoin futures are up over $ 18K. Just another week in the life…. (here is what you need to know about bitcoin futures)

Back to your regularly scheduled program… the S&P 500 rested a bit while a small correction rolled through the massive winners of 2017…

Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com


Stock Trading To Go

Technical Analysis Benefiting Market Neutral Options Traders

What if you could adjust your market neutral trades before they are under pressure?

This is exactly what many of the pro options traders on our desk are doing.

Getting inside the market internals, watching price action, identifying levels… this isn’t just for day trading stocks. These skills can help you seriously improve your market neutral options spreads.

We have two on-demand webinars available that can help you learn more about the ways many pro traders on our desk and independent traders in our community are using technical analysis and proactive trade management to improve their returns.

Watch the two webinars here

 

Important disclosures


SMB Training Blog

Market Forecast for 2018: More Volatility & Political Uncertainty

In last year’s market outlook for 2017, I anticipated a rise of around 11% in U.S. equities, in general, to place the S&P 500 Index at just above the 2400 level by the end of the year (my post was written on December 1, 2016, so my calculations and forecast hadn’t incorporated a further 80-point rally that occurred during that month until year-end). In […]
Slope of Hope

Weekly Market Recap Dec 3, 2017

After the NYSE McClellan Oscillator flipped back positive, we went out of our cautious stance and this week rewarded the bulls with significant gains Tuesday and Thursday. Only the guilty plea of Michael Flynn could slow down momentum, and even that was only an hour Friday morning before the bulls stampeded right back. With the tax reform plan looking very likely now, the market is rejoicing….

Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com


Stock Trading To Go

Efficiency in the used car market

We have a 2014 Honda Odyssey EX-L whose lease is expiring. The minivan has only 22,400 miles on it. The dealer says that it is worth $ 21,000 as a trade-in. kbb.com estimates $ 21,507 (range of $ 20,652-22,361). The dealer says that he can sell it for close to $ 26,000 with a short warranty. kbb.com says that we could sell it to a private party for $ 23,335 (minimal warranty required in Massachusetts for a private transaction) and that a “fair purchase price” from a dealer is $ 24,304 whether “certified” or not.

Let’s assume that what the dealer sales manager told me is the best information. He’s planning to make about 24 percent gross profit on the sale while taking a minimal risk of warranty expense (a three-year-old Honda with 22,400 miles shouldn’t melt down). Isn’t this kind of a fat margin for American retail?

[As evidence for the “fat margin,” the actual owner of the dealership keeps a “business” jet at our local airport (his dealerships are all local, so it is tough to see how the jet could be used for business) and has a Bell 407 standing by for shorter hops.]

Separately, as part of the new car shopping process I test-drove a 2018 Honda Odyssey Elite with acoustic side glass as well as the acoustic windshield that comes on the EX-L. It seems to measure roughly 1 dB quieter than the cheaper EX-L model. On smooth pavement at 70 mph, therefore, the meter was showing just 63-64 dBA. It is definitely quieter than the 2014 model, but I am not sure that it is noticeably quieter than the EX-L. The cost of ownership is about $ 2,000 per year higher. The rear entertainment system (low-res screen that flips down from the middle of the ceiling) adds some annoying complexity to the user interface. Turning it on disables the main audio system from playing in the middle or back of the vehicle. Turning the rear entertainment system off, however, does not automatically restore audio to the middle and rear seats. The enormous alloy wheels on the Elite are polished to a shine that would appropriate for driving around during Reno’s Hot August Nights. I prefer the more understated look of the EX-L, not that anyone is likely to be looking at us in our minivan.

Related:

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Weekly Market Recap Nov 26, 2017

Thanksgiving week is usually great for bulls and this last week was no exception. Gobble gobble. Most of the gain for the week was concentrated in the rally Tuesday (in the opening hour!); it was quiet otherwise. A little post Thanksgiving pop happened Friday morning as well. And that was your week folks.

News flow was SLOW. Federal Reserve minutes Wednesday were a “highlight”:
The Fed…

Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com


Stock Trading To Go

Are there less opportunities in this market into the close for traders?

A reader asked:

Hello Mike.

I have been involved in trading for a number of years and follow your youtube channel with interest.

A quick query when you have some time.

Going back a few years, the main ‘focus’ for trading (mainly using the tape) was on the open and the first hour of trading. Then also the last hour before the close.

I’m just wondering if this is still the case in today’s markets.  The open is still obviously important, but with regards to the last hour before the close, is this still a viable time to trade in your view?

I seem to be getting more of a ‘lunch time’ vibe in the final hour, where it seems that the main move has happened early on and now we are in sideways chop with not much in the way of ‘tape signals’ to guide you if you want to trade in the last hour before the close.

Would be interested in your view on this when you have some time.

@MikeBellafiore

I would agree with your observation for tape readers/scalpers.  On the open offers the best opportunity to scalp as there is more volatility.  I do notice our best scalpers profiting midday, trading the stocks most In Play.  I do notice less of this type of trading into close, but still opportunity for the best tape readers.  Overall, there does appear to me to be less opportunity to tape read and scalp into the close than in the past.

There are different strategies that work well into the close that traders gravitate towards.  There are positions to be managed for swing traders.  There is stock movement to be watched for setups for the next trading session.

You make an important observation for your trading.  You do an excellent job seeing the different business plans you might build for the different trading time frames- open, midday, close.

As always, I welcome your questions/feedback- mbellafiore@smbcap.com.

*no relevant positions

 

 


SMB Training Blog

The Market Is Now T-1000

I tend to think in metaphors (to a fault, probably), so I’m surprised it took me this long to figure out the state of our equity markets. In one picture: Day after day provides the same example. Any weakness, no matter how small, is snuffed out – – and quickly. I’ve given up being optimistic […]
Slope of Hope

Weekly Market Recap Nov 19, 2017

Monday, Tuesday, and Friday saw the now usual “no volatility” days – while bears finally saw some action on Wednesday, bulls came right back Thursday with even bigger gains. So while we have been cautious on the market for 3 weeks now all that has meant is consolidation in the market (granted the Russell 2000 has taken some hits). For the week the S&P 500 fell 0.3% while the NASDAQ gained…

Read the full article at StockTradingToGo.com


Stock Trading To Go