Ripon in the news

Ripon, Wisconsin is famous among pilots as the start of the VFR arrival procedure to the annual “Oshkosh” fly-in (officially EAA Airventure). A flying friend emailed me “Former Ripon High School teacher accused of sexual relationship with 17-year-old student”:

A former Ripon High School English teacher is accused of having a sexual affair with one of her students, which involved overnight stays at motels, sexting and messages that professed love.

Samantha J. Fitzpatrick of Oshkosh was charged Wednesday in Fond du Lac County Circuit Court with sexual assault of a student by school staff, child enticement, exposing a child to harmful material and obstructing an officer.

The 28-year-old faces more than 35 years in prison if convicted of all charges — three of which are felonies.

Department of True Friendship:

In September a friend of Fitzpatrick’s told police that Fitzpatrick professed to having marital problems and admitted to having an affair with a male that was turning 18 years old soon.

Readers: What do you think of tax dollars being spent to prosecute and then imprison this young lady for up to 35 years? The typical German government official who attended the Wannsee Conference was sentenced to 2-4 years in prison (see the roll-out text in the movie Conspiracy). The age of consent in neighboring Minnesota is 16 (map).

Related:

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Robinson Helicopter news

From the fall newsletter, recently made available online:

  • Eddie and Amanda Kisfaludy flew an R44 newscopter around Greenland as part of a UK-to-San Diego trip!
  • The R66 (turbine-powered) newscopter is now certified, unfortunately with an HD camera system rather than 4K (i.e., you might get better footage with a $ 3,000 DJI Inspire 2 drone).
  • Robinson pushed its 800th R66 out the door to a customer in China.
  • Peter Wilson and Matthew Gallagher, both of the UK, flew an R66 around the world (121 days; 32,000 nm; 43 countries).

Readers: Are there any great trips left to be done by helicopter?

Related:

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Pilatus news from NBAA 2017

For Pilatus PC-12 operators, the exciting news at NBAA was mostly at the Garmin booth. Usually these folks are tight-lipped about certification plans for specific aircraft, but apparently the marketing folks failed to fully brief the booth guys (nearly all appeared to identify as men). They said that they expected PC-12 certification for the new autopilot and displays within 18 months. Thus for $ 200,000 an older PC-12 could shed its $ 17,000-per-year Bendix/King (Honeywell) warranty and cathode ray tube displays in favor of a thoroughly modern panel. Bendix/King simply had no response to this competition. There are roughly 700 PC-12s out there stuffed with Bendix/King (Honeywell) avionics designs from the late 1980s/early 1990s. Boxes critical to flight safety are failing multiple times per year in an airplane that can hold 11 people. Honeywell folks at the show, asked if they were going to provide owners of their product with an upgrade path to something modern, simply said “we’re thinking about it.”

If the avionics in a legacy PC-12 are getting tougher to maintain every year, the rest of the airframe may be getting easier. Pilatus is working on a maintenance interval extension (currently at 150 hours). The company also redesigned the wing de-ice timer to use solid-state relays and also not to start inflating the rubber boots for 20 seconds. This gives the pilot time to check the outside temperature and, if below -40C, turn the boots back off (they’ll crack if operated in super cold high altitude air, a $ 30,000+ mistake). This being the aviation industry, nobody at the operator’s meeting raised his or her hand to ask “Why isn’t a $ 5 million airplane smart enough to display a ‘too cold for boots’ warning and then inhibit them unless the pilot confirms with an additional switch input that it is an emergency where the boots might help?”

In my Pilatus News from the 2015 NBAA I noted that GE and Cessna were working on a PC-12 competitor. The Cessna Denali seems to be coming along, but hasn’t flown. So far Pratt hasn’t made any commitments to matching the technology in the new GE turboprop engine, including the FADEC. Pilatus is concentrating on getting its PC-24 jet out the door. So the Cessna Denali could be a home run in this market if it ends up substantially outperforming the existing PC-12 (not significantly improved since 2005 when the PC-12/47 model was introduced (the Honeywell panel introduced for the NG model in 2008 is not universally regarded as an “improvement”; the Cessna will have the Garmin G3000 that everyone wants)).

The Pilatus operator’s meeting was dominated by “government regulation giveth and government regulation taketh away.” The European bureaucrats, after about 20 years, finally approved all-weather charter operations in single-engine turboprops such as the PC-12 (now that 1,500 PC-12s have been built and some have accumulated more than 30,000 flight hours!). On the other hand, after more than 20 years of peace, the U.S. FAA bureaucrats decided to wage war on charter operations in the PC-12, citing FAR 135.163:

No person may operate an aircraft under IFR, carrying passengers, unless it has

(f) For a single-engine aircraft:

(1) Two independent electrical power generating sources each of which is able to supply all probable combinations of continuous inflight electrical loads for required instruments and equipment; or

(2) In addition to the primary electrical power generating source, a standby battery or an alternate source of electric power that is capable of supplying 150% of the electrical loads of all required instruments and equipment necessary for safe emergency operation of the aircraft for at least one hour;

The older PC-12s have a “GEN2” belt-driven alternator (115 amps at 28 volts) that is certainly adequate for getting back on the ground in the event that the main GEN1 (300 amps) fails. They also have a main battery and an emergency battery system for the essential instruments. Somehow various local offices decided that the unchanged airplane did not comply with the unchanged regulation. Three operators were shut down while planes in other regions were still running. After a year of paperwork submissions to various FAA offices, Pilatus and the General Aviation Manufacturers Association went as supplicants to the FAA headquarters and somehow got this sorted out.

The Harvey Weinstein story had broken a week before NBAA and Bill Cosby is known as a Pilatus PC-12 owner (N712BC gets him and his family in and out of the 3200′ runway at Turners Falls). The big fight in California over the Santa Monica airport also had been in the news. Finally there were celebrations of general aviation’s contributions to disaster relief, including bizjets going in and out of hurricane-struck Puerto Rico. These items were put together: “Bill Cosby could send his PC-12 into Santa Monica to rescue all of the women who said ‘no’ to Harvey Weinstein,” which generated a response “There would probably be a couple of seats empty.” (the executive configuration PC-12 holds 6-8 passengers in the back)

Pilatus is a private company, but Switzerland apparently requires some public-company-style disclosures of big private companies (this makes sense under Econ 101; markets function with textbook efficiency only when participants have a lot of information). We learned that the company has revenues of about 900 million Swiss francs (worth slightly more than one USD) and profits before R&D and interest of about 200 million francs (down closer to 100 million after R&D expenses, presumably mostly associated with the PC-24 jet). The company was profitable even through the ugly 2008-2010 years.

The PC-24 jet remains on track for certification later this year and delivery of the first plane (on December 31 at 11:58 pm?) to New Hampshire-based PlaneSense, the world’s most experienced Pilatus PC-12 operator. It will cost about $ 10 million for this eight-passenger plane (10 pax in airline config, plus 2 pilots in front), but the company has taken 83 orders and won’t accept more until at least some are out in the wild.

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Harvey Weinstein makes the news

On the grounds that “some people in Hollywood mix sex and business is not news,” I initially ignored the New York Times “news” articles on Harvey Weinstein and his interactions with various women in the film industry.

But a friend sent me Weinstein’s recently published mea culpa and it is kind of interesting:

Over the last year, I’ve asked Lisa Bloom to tutor me, and she’s put together a team of people. I’ve brought on therapists

I so respect all women, and regret what happened. [he regrets having sex with the women who said “yes,” or he regrets the public complaints by the women who said “no”?]

I am going to need a place to channel that anger, so I’ve decided that I’m going to give the NRA my full attention. I hope Wayne LaPierre will enjoy his retirement party. I’m going to do it at the same place I had my Bar Mitzvah. I’m making a movie about our President, perhaps we can make it a joint retirement party.

America’s gun-lovers and the Trumpenfuhrer are now going to be attacked by a naked Harvey Weinstein, fresh from the shower, leading a platoon of attractive young script girls (now referred to as “Script supervisor”)? Or is there an existing army arrayed against the NRA and/or Trump that is eager to be led by Mr. Weinstein?

[Separately, how does this work in our transgender age:

One year ago, I began organizing a $ 5 million foundation to give scholarships to women directors at USC.

Why can’t any student identify as a woman long enough to apply for this scholarship?]

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Exciting news in a boring industry (new Garmin aviation products)

Garmin takes us a little closer to the day when a $ 2 million aircraft can make as effective use of computer hardware and software as a 2003 Honda Accord….

  • The GWX 80 weather radar pokes around in the sky and gives a high-level summary to the monkey in the front left seat (press release), just as a non-pilot would expect onboard weather radar to work. Note that Honeywell has had a similar system out for some years, but designed for heavier airplanes. Correct use and interpretation of more primitive onboard weather radar is a skill that takes years of airline flying to master. The rest of us primarily rely on datalink NEXRAD (what you see on TV news or web pages when you want to see where it is raining; one issue with this is that there is no information about the altitude from which the rain is falling; a terrifying patch of red heavy rain might be overflown in clear air at 20,000′)
  • If it were legal to stick an Android tablet on the panel, a 1935 airplane could have way better avionics than the latest Boeing (press release on synthetic vision (Microsoft Flight Simulator view of the world)). Note that Garmin here is playing catch-up to ForeFlight.
  • Garmin has refreshed their 10-year-old retrofit glass panels (press release) and added an engine-monitoring system. This, combined with the GFC 600 autopilot, would be an awesome solution for the legacy Pilatus PC-12. Again, it is unclear that a $ 140,000 installation of these new panels would be any better than two iPads or Android tablets on the panel, but these will be legal under FAA regulations.

What could one do with all of this good stuff? Buy a 1982 twin-engine Beechcraft Baron with new paint and interior for $ 239,000 (controller.com). Put in all of the above Garmin stuff, including the latest autopilot, for about $ 200,000. Enjoy way better avionics than more than 99 percent of the jets flying.

[Sadly, as the U.S. population grows and Americans are packed in like rats in a psychology experiment, hostility to personal aviation is also growing. Just as the good folks at Garmin are making the airplanes better, Californians are shrinking the runway at Santa Monica, in preparation for its ultimate closure.]

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

A Big News Crash in Uptrending Equifax EFX

You’ve probably heard about the large-scale data breach exposing customer data at Equifax (EFX).

We’re not here to talk about that, but instead note the affect the news had on this strongly uptrending stock.

Here’s the run-up and the collapse on the chart:

Equifax Stock EFX

We like to identify “Strong Stocks Getting Stronger” and buy pullbacks in these bullish candidates.

Equifax (EFX) shares were listed as a strongly uptrending stock in many scans and that was correct.

We see numerous small and larger tradable retracements (pullbacks) from before 2013 as shares traveled a long-term bullish uptrend from the 2009 low near $ 20.00 per share.

In fact, to see a stellar uptrend, view EFX on a Monthly Chart.

Nevertheless, headline news and the ramifications of the near-term future for the company sent investors fleeing the stock.

The result was a price collapse that took price 30% lower from the $ 150 level to the current $ 100 per share level.

It’s interesting that this news-driven plunge took place on a negative divergence at the target high.

Nevertheless, here we have a great example of how news can suddenly and violently interrupt uptrends in place, and how quickly we must react to sudden changes on the price chart.

Continue studying this stock for additional insights.

 

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

How to get news from old people for whom nothing ever changes

I recently completed a five-year term as Secretary of the MIT Class of 1982.

Our new Secretary emailed to ask for “tips on extracting information from classmates” and “Did you ever target specific individuals?” Here was my response:

Thanks for stepping up.

A good salesperson doesn’t hear the first three times the prospect says “No.” So I think you may want to send out at least 2-3 emails between issues.

Also, people are much better at reacting than generating content. If you ask someone “What’s new?” the invariable answer is “Not much.” If you tell them about going to see Wonder Woman, though, they start talking about the last time that they went to the movies, what they saw, etc. Or maybe they saw Wonder Woman and had some reactions. You saw that every now that I then I had to bring out the big hammer and mention Trump ? [though I myself am pretty much indifferent to federal politics]

I thought that it helped to have themes for various issues. That way people can pipe up with “Kid X graduated College Y” but others can share life wisdom. Since we’ve reached the age where not too much changes, instead of searching for conventional news of changes think of yourself as a sociologist with a group that you’re following. Can you figure out if it is better to live in the U.S. or a different country. Is it better to live in the country or city? Are people happier if they have kids or don’t have kids? Is it better to be married and divorce than never to have been married at all? What happens when someone tries to get a new job at age 60? What is it like to go back to school at age 60?

I didn’t try the individual email approach, but the group of people who actually care is small enough (e.g., the ones who showed up at the reunion) that yours is probably a good idea. People can’t not respond on the theory that someone else will.

[How have times changed since 1982, other than the Wisconsin glaciation having receded from the MIT campus? Tuition was around $ 5,000 per year when our class started. The acceptance rate for people who applied to join the Class of 1982 was roughly 50 percent. Freshmen entering this fall will pay $ 50,000 per year in tuition. They had less than an 8 percent chance of being accepted.]

Related:

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Quick Quad Market Reaction to North Korea News Aug 10

Continuing our thought process from this morning, let’s take a look at the snap-reactions and sudden price movement in our Quad-Market Grid.

Quad Market Intermarket Grid North Korea

We’re seeing Stocks plunge, collapsing to new swing lows and breaking Daily Chart support.

“Risk-OFF” safety assets like Gold (especially) and US Treasuries surged higher on the news.

The US Dollar – and Crude Oil (not seen) – remained flat and relatively motionless.

Keep in mind, markets anticipate future activities and sometimes headline news causes markets to snap one way or the other until the news is settled or “digested.”

Until we see otherwise, we’re seeing “Risk-Off” defensive behavior in our quad-market grid.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Morning News

Well, Slopers, what’s going on in the world this morning? First off, our Tweeter-In-Chief is yet again taking full credit for lifetime highs in the stock market. Here’s a safe bet: when it falls, he’ll blame someone other than himself. Guaranteed. In my view, though, he might not want to take such full ownership, since […]
Slope of Hope

College sexual assault tribunals back in the news

Betsy DeVos is taking a break from running what is essentially a massive financial services enterprise (the Department of “Education” spends the vast majority of its money on student loans to subsidize American colleges and universities). She’s contemplating dismantling the Obama Administration regulation that forced schools to set up amateur-run sexual assault tribunals with a 51-percent standard of proof. See “Campus Rape Policies Get a New Look as the Accused Get DeVos’s Ear” (nytimes) for example.

I think the best source of information about this topic is found in Missoula: Rape and the Justice System in a College Town (a.k.a. majoring in partying and football), a book by John Krakauer. The book gives the texture of modern campus life (debauched to the extent that the Roman would have been shocked) as well as the texture of the tribunals and regular criminal courts handling sexual assault allegations. You can learn a lot from the book even if you don’t agree with Krakauer that standards for convicting men should be much lower (he does not like either presumption of innocence or “beyond a reasonable doubt” when it comes to litigation following heterosexual sex).

It turns out the government has figured out the same thing that you will after reading Krakauer’s book, i.e., not every American is addicted to OxyContin… college students are usually too drunk to get through the child-proof pill bottle caps:

“Rather, the accusations — 90 percent of them — fall into the category of ‘we were both drunk,’ ‘we broke up, and six months later I found myself under a Title IX investigation because she just decided that our last sleeping together was not quite right,’” [Candice E. Jackson, the top civil rights official at the Department of Education] said.

I’m wondering if the Trump Administration can have any practical influence in this area. There are currently three systems that operate in parallel. A person accused of rape can be prosecuted criminally in a criminal court (penalty if guilty = prison; penalty if found innocent = $ 1 million spent on legal fees) and simultaneously prosecuted within the university (penalty = being kicked out without a degree and forfeiting $ 200,000+ in tuition and fees paid) and simultaneously sued in civil court (penalty = paying a guaranteed $ 1 million in legal fees to defend the lawsuit through trial and then, if a jury finds 51% likelihood of assault, paying additional money to the plaintiff). The civil and criminal courts aren’t going anywhere. But suppose that Secretary DeVos writes a “Dear Colleague” letter saying “You don’t have to run these tribunals anymore. You can tell people who’ve been assaulted to call 911.” Which universities are going to say “we will tear down this administrative process because we don’t care about rape anymore”?

Some comments from the Times article for the Zeitgeist (at least among Hillary Clinton supporters):

[soxared] It says here that Betsy DeVos is far less interested in sexual assaults on college campuses. She’s more interested in aiding and abetting her boss’s determination to chop down every and any Obama administrative rule, regulation, executive order or directive. She isn’t fooling anyone. Why should she care about victims of sexual predation in academic settings? Her job is to Christianize every American school in America and this charade is the merest show.

[gordy] This woman, DeVos, makes me ashamed to call myself Christian. There is nothing Christin about her shameless attitudes.

[pjswfla] There is something profoundly wrong and evil lurking in the alleged mind of Betsy Devos. She seems to be against anything that makes common sense for students, their decent education, their finances and their well being. Makes sense, come to think of it, when you consider the idiot who appointed her who denies truths – who would not know a truthful statement if it hit him in his orange mug like a brick.

[AP] During undergrad at a huge Big Ten school, I watched the ineptitude of faculty/administrators trying to manage basic behavioral issues with suboptimal results let alone rape cases. … As a woman I take offense at those who refuse to acknowledge the poor judgement and party culture of college life helps foster these crimes. While my friends and I hit the books for our honors degrees and grad school, we watched girl after girl weekend after weekend get amazingly drunk and with horror see them laugh over it and the compromising sexual situations that arose from it. …  Drop the idea that young adults are “entitled” to be in college, the notion that college means partying and some voyage of exploration that focuses on gratification and pulverize the thought that a woman is unable to use her cerebral cortex to comprehend that alcohol plus a dark room at 3am with equally drunk men is a potential set up for mayhem.

[Barry] I think maybe more women ought to be armed. That might cause some males to have second thoughts before proceeding. [Now there will be alcohol, sex, and guns at the party!]

[SD]  Campuses don’t generally share their outcome rates, but Stanford did on May 31: 24% of allegations were thrown out as invalid before ever getting to the investigation stage, and 50% of accused students tried in a hearing were found “not responsible”. Under a preponderance standard, that is equivalent to saying the accused was likely to be innocent. In other words, over half of the accusations were false, unfounded, or just too dubious to be investigated or to receive a decision of “responsible.” NCHERM [ National Center for Higher Education Risk Management!] reports rates of 60% (see their 2017 white paper, page 15). And those are under DCL conditions discouraging cross examination and participation by an attorney, and where there are no penalties for false testimony.

[aeg] [college students] may consider NOT proceeding with intimate behavior before a 24 or 48 hour “get acquainted” or cooling off period…or longer? Hum…no more “one night stands?” [Given the 48-hour interval, assuming that Lover N+1 is not contacted until one day after the student is finished with Lover N, this would limit a college student to no more than approximately 487 sex partners over a 4-year period.]

[Elly] My daughter’s first night away at school… Four drunk people in her dorm room have sex most of the night. [Consistent with Krakauer’s book.]

[William Case] The comments reveal that many readers think that Title IX investigations involve sexual assaults that take place on campus, but almost all take place off campus at private residences. Colleges and universities should not be held responsible for investigating crimes their students commit away from campus during non-school events.

[GSA101] Title IX, as written, prohibits Universities from failing to provide equal educational access on the basis of gender. Since extramarital sex is NOT part of the curriculum of any University that I know of, the Universities are simply not responsible for their students’ activities in that regard. Therefore, they are NOT required to investigate or adjudicate such activities.

[AMarie] Is there a reason the women can’t use the court system to get a restraining order? Those already exist, the burden of proof is much more reasonable (it isn’t a conviction, after all) and it would prevent the assailant, I mean, “accused,” from going on the campus. [Certainly this works for alimony and child support plaintiffs!]

[TOM] It is about time that people realize that perjury does occur for many reasons and no reason at all, and due process is the only way we have a hope of having justice, even if it is a slim hope. [See our litigation chapter for an attorney’s point of view on whether judges can discern the truth: “People who are crazy and sociopathic are great witnesses. They can lie without batting an eye and sound completely credible. That’s why con artists thrive. If we were good at assessing credibility none of us would ever get ripped off.”]

[Jon] I think Donald Trump is destroying this country and an oppose everything I have heard associated with him and his administration. I work towards preventing his policies being implemented. He must be stopped. But this could be the only exception among his policies… if this policy gets rescinded, then perhaps one single good thing would come out of Trump’s election. I never thought I would write something like that. [!]

[Michael] Ms. DeVos, like the man who appointed her, is manifestly unqualified for her role in government; that said, it is a huge relief that the Education Department is finally taking action to rein in the excesses of college sexual assault proceedings. In an effort to comply with the Dept’s Title IX guidelines, universities have adopted policies that would provoke alarm and outrage in any other setting: the accused are denied access to evidence in the cases levied against them; most are denied the right to counsel. Administrators who adjudicate these cases are vulnerable to campaigns of influence and intimidation by students or faculty members with a stated political interest in a guilty “verdict.” Even if exonerated, the accused are routinely forced out of their dorms and even their majors.

[Alina Starkov] Disgusting that those accused of rape are getting any sort of lenience from the government with regards to the schools.

[Deb] Somehow this doesn’t surprise. Betsy Devos’ boss publicly stated his fondness for and skill at successfully committing sexual assault, and how easily he got away with it.

It seems that even in a community of readers where nearly all could agree on the superior virtues of Hillary Clinton, they can’t agree on this issue. The commenters are divided and there seem to be almost as many rationales as commenters.

[You might ask what is my personal perspective? I wrote it up for the Times:

Stepping back from this I’m surprised that nobody asks (1) Why do colleges run dorms and sponsor fraternities/sororities and thereby take on responsibility for what happens during these parties? Why not run classrooms and labs and concentrate on education per se? (2) Why do Americans invest so much money in parking young people for four years in an environment so undemanding intellectually that they can be drunk every night?

]

Related:

 

 

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Make up a news story about Trump to generate outrage (and shares) on Facebook?

I have an idea for a news story that would be popular for my Facebook friends to share and talk about.

Headline: “Donald Trump proposes shutting down Federal wildlife refuges”

Picture: Bucolic lake with some mountains in the background.

Story:

President Trump today said that the nation had too many refugees and therefore he was shutting down Federal wildlife refuges.

Readers: What do you think? Would it work? Do you have a better idea?

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Unwelcome news on enchilada night

Shortly before we sat down to a family dinner of chicken enchiladas, a moderately Deplorable friend emailed me “This Week in Appropriation: Kooks Burritos” (Portland Mercury):

This week in white nonsense, two white women—Kali Wilgus and Liz “LC” Connely—decided it would be cute to open a food truck after a fateful excursion to Mexico. There’s really nothing special about opening a Mexican restaurant—it’s probably something that happens everyday. [in Mexico?]

Week after week people of color in Portland bear witness to the hijacking of their cultures, and an identifiable pattern of appropriation has been created. Several of the most successful businesses in this town have been birthed as a result of curious white people going to a foreign country, or an international venture, and poaching as many trade secrets, customs, recipes as possible, and then coming back to Portland to claim it as their own and score a tidy profit.

Because of Portland’s underlying racism, the people who rightly own these traditions and cultures that exist are already treated poorly. These appropriating businesses are erasing and exploiting their already marginalized identities for the purpose of profit and praise.

People of color are nothing more than an afterthought when the white perpetrators of this tradition continue to do this on a regular basis.

I didn’t feel the need to read the masthead to infer that this is from Portland, Oregon rather than Portland, Maine…

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

A Vicious Bull Trap and Delayed Response to News for United Airlines UAL

If you were puzzled as to why United Airlines (UAL) stock didn’t collapse – or at least fall – yesterday, join the crowd.

As word spread via daytime news, Twitter, Facebook, and other sources about the forced removal of a passenger from a flight, the price of UAL actually increased.

Logic – and the bad publicity – would suggest at least a down day when the news broke.

Worse than that, not only was the stock price higher during a negative news cycle, but it also broke resistance into a potential bullish breakout play.

If your head is spinning, look no further to what happened this morning as a vicious Bull Trap triggered and stock prices collapsed more than 4% as word of the incident spread around the globe.

It’s a good lesson in news, expectations, patterns, and trading traps.

Let’s start with the intraday chart to pinpoint the bull trap and collapse outcome:

For reference, this post isn’t about the incident itself, but instead the publicity and reaction in the stock.

UAL shares traded in a sideways range between $ 70.00 and $ 71.25 (yellow highlight).

On the negative news day, buyers pushed the stock higher out of the range not once but twice, peaking with negative volume and momentum divergences at the $ 72.00 level.

Negative news/press aside, this is a divergent situation or non-confirmation of a breakout in motion.

IF volume and momentum FAIL to rise as stock breaks from resistance, odds then favor a reversal.

And what a reversal it was.

This time we have the spread of the negative publicity as a reason for why the stock collapsed, but it did so in the most vicious way (by initially rallying and tricking traders into buying a breakout BEFORE collapsing, as would have been logical to expect).

Here’s the pattern playing out on the Daily Chart and perhaps what to expect next:

UAL shares tumbled in March, falling from a Triple Top (and negative divergence) pattern.

We saw a standard retracement back toward the falling 20 and 50 day EMAs near the $ 71.00 level.

The logical play would be to expect a retest of the low, or a sell-swing down toward the 200 day SMA.

We’re now seeing that logical sell-swing action (beneath $ 70) in motion, though it seems to have required a huge international incident to set shares tumbling lower on this bearish pathway.

Continue following this stock and learn the lessons from this example (Bull Trap/Reversal, News/Reaction, etc).

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


Afraid to Trade.com Blog