Semi Canary Still Chirping, But He’s Gonna Croak in 2018

Since January 2013 we have been using the worldwide Semiconductor Equipment industry as a leader within the Semiconductor sector, which is an economic cyclical leader itself. That month we noted a positive move in Equipment bookings, which became a (3 month) trend that spring. This trend was used to project positive economic signals to come. […]
Slope of Hope

Do they still line up kids at school and give them shots?

I have forgotten the state capitals, but one intact memory of elementary school in Bethesda, Maryland is lining up to get shots (vaccines?) from some sort of “gun”. These were administered roughly every 15 seconds either by the school nurse or a county health worker. It went so fast that I wonder if we were all effectively sharing one needle (HIV and hepatitis were not concerns for schoolchildren circa 1970).

The other day I was waiting for a friend at CVS so decided to use the time to get my “free” (i.e., included in my $ 10,000/year Obamacare policy) flu shot. Ten minutes later my friend showed up. It took roughly another ten minutes before the shot was “ready.” It turned out that three health care professionals had to process various forms on a computer screen, get a one-page questionnaire from me, and finally deliver the shot with a simple needle (less than one minute). A licensed pharmacist was required as part of the paperwork pipeline.

Here’s what I got in hardcopy:

  1. Two-page document regarding the vaccine (Flucelvax Quad). It says “This is an OFF-WHITE SYRINGE.”
  2. CVS Health Notice of Privacy Practices, a two-page document in 6 pt type. It is a paper copy that, among other things, says “You have the right to obtain a paper copy of our current Notice at any time.” It also says what will happen if I am or become “an inmate of a correctional institution.”
  3. A five-page “Vaccine Information Statement” that discusses the side effects (overlaps to some extent with Document #1)
  4. A Vaccine Consent and Administration Record
  5. A three-foot-long receipt for $ 0.00 (coupons following)
  6. A $ 5 off any $ 25 purchase special coupon specific to having gotten a “free” flu shot (i.e., for giving CVS the opportunity to bill the health insurer)

Is there now this much paperwork and process attached to what was, in my youth, a 15-second paperwork-free experience?

[I posted a shorter version of the above on Facebook and it generated the predictable encomiums about the wisdom of Obamacare requiring insurance companies to pay for flu shots:

I think the insurance companies cover shots as a preventative measure, hoping we won’t incur more healthcare expenses related to the flu we’d contract if we didn’t take the shot.

It should be free and universal. That will save the most money, and the evidence for that is stone-cold solid.

In other words, the central planners working for the government are smarter than the actuaries who work at insurers, which didn’t previously pay for flu shots. I decided to poke at this assumption a bit with “If it made actuarial sense to do this, why wouldn’t the UK bureaucrats be smart enough to figure it out? They don’t offer free flu shots to everyone. (source) Are the U.S. central planners smarter than the UK ones who’ve been doing it for decades?” That proved to be an impossible conundrum!]

Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

Macro Plan Still on Track for Stocks, Commodities & Gold

As I’ve been noting again, again, again, again, and again the macro backdrop is marching toward changes. I’d originally thought those changes would come about within the Q4 window and while that may still be the case, it can easily extend into the first half of 2018 based on new information and data points that […]
Slope of Hope

Amazon Pattern Still Intact

In spite of about a month’s worth of strength, Amazon’s long-term bearish pattern still remains intact. Their earnings come out after the close on October 26th, so unless we’ve broken above the $ 1017 horizontal, there’s still an opportunity for a major whack-a-doodle-down on AMZN. Looking at the long-term picture provides a better understanding as to […]
Slope of Hope

Market Still Holding at the Extended Highs October 11

Stocks continue to hold the highs at the 2,550 “Open Air” level on an extended upswing.

Here’s the quick chart update and the plan for the next immediate price swing:

SPX

As I share with members each night, we plan the next swing in price and then play that out – usually in terms of movement “toward” and “away from” key levels – either on a swing (Daily Chart) or intraday basis.

Right now, the price “failed” to pull back (retrace) sufficiently at the beginning of October (notice that the pattern has been pulling back from the upper Bollinger to the lower Bollinger and then moving back again).

This set the stage for an “Alternate Thesis” extended run or powerful short-squeeze.

We indeed got our powerful short-squeeze which propelled the market straight up through all-time highs toward where we are now at 2,550.

What’s the next expected simple plan?

Look back at the red highlights on the chart – reversal candles at the upper Bollinger Band in the uptrend – and plan for a pullback at least to the rising 20 day EMA again (green).

While that’s certainly the dominant thesis – and should be easy to see – YOU must plan for what you’ll do in the event the market extends the short-squeeze and continues in the lower-probability alternate thesis non-stop bullish swing in which we’re moving currently.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

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Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


Afraid to Trade.com Blog

Financial ETF Still Churning After Failed Breakout

I last wrote about the Financial ETF (XLF) on July 11th. Since then, it failed to hold a brief breakout above the 25.00 major resistance level (convergence of 40% Fib retracement and upper channel), as shown on the following Monthly chart. Price is sitting at the bottom of the upper quarter of a long-term uptrending channel…a segment that it hasn’t typically […]
Slope of Hope

Emini Still Trades and Bounces within our Grid Sept 6

Our breakout beyond 2,470 was short-lived last week.  Now, we’re back within our grid.

Let’s chart today’s @ES Fibonacci Grid in play:

Emini @ES Intraday Trend Reversal

After the Labor Day holiday, shares plunged back toward our 2,448 Fibonacci Pivot and reversed powerfully up away from this level, closing back at the 2,458 Fibonacci Target.

At the moment, we’re back within the 2,458 and 2,470 price pivots as price rests between them.

There’s no special analysis or plan here – continue to trade the movement between these levels until we get above 2,480 (target 2,500) or beneath 2,420.

Until then, we’ll continue loving this range because it’s effective for our short-term trades.

Come join us to learn these tactics (beyond this simple/quick update) and have an evening game plan you can use effectively for the next trading day.

Afraid to Trade Premium Content and Membership

Follow along with members of the Afraid to Trade Premium Membership for real-time updates and additional trade planning.

Corey Rosenbloom, CMT

Afraid to Trade.com

Follow Corey on Twitter: http://twitter.com/afraidtotrade

Corey’s book The Complete Trading Course (Wiley Finance) is now available along with the newly released Profiting from the Life Cycle of a Stock Trend presentation (also from Wiley).”


Afraid to Trade.com Blog